After that insane ending to Game 6 in Miami, where Derrick White saved the Celtics’ season at the buzzer with a game-winning putback to force a Game 7 back home in Boston, I don’t think many people gave the Heat a chance. I didn’t, personally. I thought they were cooked.

But like they always say, “Never underestimate the heart of a champion”, there is also a corollary to that: “Never underestimate Heat Culture.”

And if you had been doubting or scoffing at the idea of “Heat Culture” over the past few years, there can be no denying it now: Heat Culture is real, and it wins. What else do you call it when a group of cast-offs and undrafted scrappers reaches the Finals with only one real superstar player?

If that’s not a testament to team and organizational culture, then I don’t know what is.

The undrafted Caleb Martin was Miami’s second-best player in the series, and he thoroughly outplayed Boston’s Jaylen Brown:

Martin averaged 19 a game on a whopping 73.8% true shooting. I don’t care if the guy was undrafted and later waived by the Charlotte Hornets–you’ve gotta be pretty damn good to average those numbers in the Conference Finals.

Players on Miami like Martin, Gabe Vincent and Max Strus show us that it’s about where you are and what you’re doing, not where you came from–not your pedigree.

But still, just look at this comparison between where each of the Celtics and Heat top players in the series were drafted (MP = total minutes played in ECF):

Four of Miami’s top 8 guys weren’t drafted. Their highest-drafted player is Kevin Love, who they acquired as a buyout guy just a few months ago.

Miami won this series without Tyler Herro (as they won the previous two series before it as well), and they beat the Celtics despite the Celtics being -600 favorites going in.

-600!

Did the Heat nearly become the first team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 lead in the playoffs? Yeah, they did. But given how dominant they were in Game 7, where they basically led wire-to-wire, they weren’t really that close, were they?

And nobody will talk about the fact that they almost squandered a 3-0 lead. In Boston, people will for years be saying stuff like, “Remember when we almost did it?”

But now the history books just show that the Miami Heat won the series in 7 games, period.

The only other time an 8th-seeded team has made it to the NBA Finals was the Knicks in 1999. What made that Knicks run improbable was that Patrick Ewing, the franchise’s anchor and star player for nearly a decade and a half, tore his achilles during Game 2 of the Conference Finals against Indiana. The series was tied 1-1 when Ewing went down, but the Knicks managed to rally and win the series in 6.

Ewing was 36 years old at the time and nowhere near the player he once was (and in fact really hadn’t been for most of the 1990s decade due to his knees wearing down relatively early in his career), so he wasn’t some massive, irreplaceable loss for the Knicks. And, though it was impressive that the Knicks rallied to win the Conference Finals without him, they went on to lose in 5 games in the Finals to the Spurs, meaning they went 4-5 without him in the playoffs overall.

The other thing about 1999 is that it was a strike-shortened season in which the regular season was only 50 games. The Knicks were 27-23 and the 8th seed, but the #1 seed Miami Heat (funny enough) was just 33-17, which isn’t that big of a gap in records. Plus, according to Ryen Russillo, the Knicks actually had the highest payroll in the league that season (they did, at about $60 million).

This Heat run is, I’d say, more impressive and more improbable.

Here’s what’s most impressive about it: they took down the two best teams in the Eastern Conference, and some would argue the two best teams in the league. Miami’s first victim was Milwaukee, who had the best record in the league and Giannis, the guy everyone said was the best player in the league all season long. Then Miami took down the Knicks, then the defending Eastern Conference Champs the Celtics.

Before the playoffs started, when the Heat were struggling in the play-in tournament, they actually lost their first game to the Hawks, thus failing to earn the 7th seed, and narrowly escaped the Bulls in the final play-in game for the 8th seed. I wrote at the time that perhaps Pat Riley had lost his touch and that the Miami Heat were falling apart. I could not have been more wrong; that whole article could not have aged more poorly. And now here the Heat are, back in the Finals for the second time in four years.

Miami is now arguably the most successful team in the league that hasn’t won a title during the 2020s decade. They have 2 Finals appearances, which is more than anybody else, plus a Conference Finals appearance last season. Nobody else can boast that level of consistent success, although of course, again, the Heat haven’t won a title in that span while the Lakers, Bucks and Warriors have.

My initial reaction is to predict the Nuggets to win in 6 games. I think Denver has been excellent, they look unbeatable, and I think they are a dynasty in the making.

But then again, I am done picking against the Miami Heat. I am done doubting this team. Maybe they’re punching above their weight class–whatever it is, it works, and they are capable of beating teams that look far better than them on paper.

Why would someone pick Denver to win? “Because Denver is the better team!”

Yeah, that’s true.

But it was also true against Milwaukee and Boston, at least on paper.

Miami levels the playing field because they have the best coach in the league, they are fearless, they are tough, they are experienced, they play scrappy defense, and it just seems like all their players are as hungry as you can be in this league. They just want it more than their opponents, it seems.

It’s going to be extremely tough for them to beat Denver, as Miami has not yet faced a team with a big man like Nikola Jokic. I don’t think Bam Adebayo will be able to handle him down low, frankly.

But if any coach out there can cook up a game plan to muck things up and take Denver out of their element, it’s Erik Spoelstra. Yes, Denver’s Michael Malone is one of the best coaches in the league (unlike Joe Mazzulla), but I don’t think any other coach out there is on Spo’s level. And coaching really does matter. For a while, when LeBron was going to the Finals with David Blatt, many of us allowed ourselves to believe coaching doesn’t really matter in the NBA, but it’s clear now that coaching is extremely important.

So while I think Denver is going to win, I am now going to think twice about picking against Miami. I have doubted them basically the whole way to the Finals (I wasn’t even sure they’d beat the Knicks in round 2!)

I’m going Nuggets in 7. I just think their home court advantage is the biggest in the league–it’s hard for teams to adjust to that altitude on short notice. Plus, I don’t think Miami’s interior defense has been tested thus far against a guy like Jokic.

Miami is a team where the sum is greater than the parts–whatever they do, it just works. You look at all the players on their roster, and they should not be as good a team as they are. Yet here they are back in the Finals. I am no longer going to doubt them and act like the clock is about to strike midnight on them. They are not some Cinderella. They’re legit.

Of course, now that I finally believe in them, watch them get Gentlemen Swept 😂

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As for Boston, they are going to have to make a decision here on Jaylen Brown.

He’s got one year left on his contract, but he is eligible for a 5 year, $290 million supermax contract extension. Yes, you read that right: $290 million.

Obviously Boston can trade him after signing him, but the real question here is whether or not you can be a championship team while paying a guy like Jaylen Brown $290 million over 5 years, which comes out to an average of $58 million a year.

I just don’t think it’s possible to win a Championship with JB taking up that much money. Flat out.

Miami figured out what Golden State figured out last: if you force Jaylen Brown to dribble, he is not good. He can’t really go left, but more than that, he doesn’t have a good handle on the ball in general, meaning it’s easy to force him into mistakes if you put him in a position where he has to put the ball on the deck.

He had 8 turnovers in Game 7!

Brown had 25 turnovers vs. 24 assists in the series overall. Tatum had 26 turnovers, but also 38 assists.

And I know people think Jaylen Brown is this super young player, but he’s kind of not. He’ll be 27 when next season begins. He’s entering his prime right now–27 is the prime year. 27-30 are supposed to be your absolute best years as a basketball player.

So while there is room for improvement and Brown could always shore up his handles in the offseason (easier said than done, however), do you really want to hitch your wagon to a guy based on the hope that he’ll fix his biggest weakness, which he hasn’t done thus far in his 7-year career?

I wouldn’t. I don’t know if you can win a title with him as your second option.

In fact, I don’t think you can win a title with Jayson Tatum as your #1, and that might be part of the problem with Brown as well, but that’s a story for another day.

The thing is, Brown is probably reluctant to tie his future to the Celtics. He has been pretty public about how he is unhappy about the team’s constant attempts to trade him (mainly for KD), he’s even said some stuff about how he more or less feels Boston is a racist city.

I don’t think Jaylen wants to stay in Boston.

I don’t think you can win a Championship paying him $290 million.

I don’t think Joe Mazzulla is the guy.

But then again, I think it’s stupid to just blow it up without a plan for how to actually improve the team on the other side. People are so often seeking the catharsis of “blowing it up” but oftentimes that can be an impulsive move that you come to regret.

I feel like Boston re-signs Brown to the max and then he gets traded a year from now. But on the flip side, who would want to pay Jaylen Brown $58 million a year?