The consensus 2023 NCAA National Player of the Year, Purdue Center Zach Edey, took his name out of the NBA Draft on May 31, opting to return to school for another year rather than try his luck in the draft. He was not projected to be drafted, which is why he went back.

Kentucky’s Oscar Tshibwe did the same thing last year. Tshibwe was National Player of the Year in 2022 and opted to go back to Kentucky for one final season after winning Player of the Year and declaring for the draft. He eventually went undrafted in this year’s NBA draft.

Tshibwe did end up signing a two-way contract with the Pacers in the days after the Draft, but all this means is that he will have to prove himself in the G-League before he can get a shot in the NBA. Being a two-way guy means you are a fringe NBA player at best.

Tshibwe was the first NCAA Player of the Year to go undrafted by the NBA, but he will certainly not be the last. This is a trend that is just getting started now but has been developing for a few years.

The issue with Tshibwe is that he was great at the college game—the best in the nation, ostensibly. But that does not always translate to the NBA game.

We are now starting to see a major disconnect between success at the college level and success at the NBA level.

From 2000-2016, the lowest any former NCAA Player of the Year was drafted was pick 20. It was Jameer Nelson in 2004. Other than him, the second-lowest draft spot for a former Player of the Year was Tyler Hansbrough, who went 13th in 2008.

Otherwise, 12 of the 17 guys were drafted top 10, including Kenyon Martin in 2000, Andrew Bogut in 2005, Blake Griffin in 2009, and Anthony Davis in 2012. AD is the most recent College Basketball Player of the Year to be drafted #1 overall, and the way things are going, he might be the last one for a long time.

Since 2017, the former Players of the Year have been drafted as follows:

• 2017: Frank Mason III, 34th overall
• 2018: Jalen Brunson, 33rd overall
• 2019: Zion Williamson, 1st overall
• 2020: Obi Toppin, 8th overall
• 2021: Luka Garza, 52nd overall
• 2022: Oscar Tshibwe, undrafted
• 2023: Zach Edey, withdrew from draft to return to Purdue

The last two College Basketball Players of the year have both pulled out of the draft the year that they won Player of the Year. They returned to college basketball for another season.

That typically did not happen in the past. Tyler Hansbrough did it—he won player of the year as a Junior in 2008, but came back for his senior season in 2009, led UNC to the National Championship, and then went 13th in the draft.

But Hansbrough was the only one who did it prior to Tshibwe and Edey. From 2000-2021, only one College Basketball Player of the Year returned to college to play another season after winning Player of the Year.

Now it has happened twice in a row.

And you can see that only Jalen Brunson and Zion Williamson have turned into high level NBA players. Really, Brunson and Zion are the only two NCAA Players of the Year since AD to turn into great NBA players.

The real issue for college basketball is what happened in the 2023 Draft. And it’s a bigger problem than just Oscar Tshibwe not getting drafted and Edey having to go back to Purdue for another season.

Never before have the college basketball and NBA games been more different, and the divergence is only growing.

Four of the top five picks in this year’s draft did not play college basketball.

You had Wemby going #1, then Brandon Miller at 2. Miller was the only college basketball player to get drafted in the top-5. Scoot Henderson played for the G-League Ignite, and then the Thompson Twins, who went 4 and 5, both played for Overtime Elite.

The sixth pick was Anthony Black from Arkansas, our next college basketball player, but after him was Bilal Coulibaly, Victor Wembanyama’s teammate on the Mets 92 in Paris.

So 5 of the top 7 picks this year didn’t play college basketball.

The question is, is this an outlier of a year, or is it a sign of things to come—a draft that convinces future top basketball prospects that not only is there a very viable path to the NBA without playing college basketball, but that it might actually be better to eschew college basketball.

In other words, it could get to a point—if it hasn’t already—where the top prospects feel it’s imperative to not play college basketball and play either overseas or in one of the lower level American leagues like GLI or OTE.

Now, that said, as dire as it may seem for college basketball these days, it is still the case that 25 of the 30 first round picks this year came from college.

So I don’t think college basketball is “dead” like others are saying.

What I think is happening is that simply the best of the best talent will eschew college basketball in favor of playing overseas or for GLI and OTE. There’s just a lot more money for them outside of college basketball.

The lower-rated prospects, the ones who maybe aren’t going to be NBA ready after one year, they’ll still go to college. The NBA’s rank-and-file will still be overwhelmingly filled with guys who came up through the college basketball system.

But the superstars? The can’t-miss prospects? I don’t think they’ll be going the college basketball route anymore.

Like, for example, if Zion Williamson was the #1 prospect this year, or next year, I think there’s a real strong chance he wouldn’t have gone to Duke, and instead would’ve gone to G-League Ignite or OTE.

A lot has changed since 2019. Back then, going to Duke or Kentucky was undoubtedly the move if you were a recruit of Zion’s stature.

This was before NIL, and before the NBA started allowing players to go straight from high school to the G-League. That policy change was announced in October of 2018, after Zion was already enrolled at Duke. (Zion played at Duke for the 2018-19 season).

The NIL stuff really kicked off in the summer of 2021, which as it pertains to college basketball was really in large part a response to the G-League Ignite–it gives colleges the ability to compete with the GLI by offering legitimate, over-the-table money to recruits.

So this is all new stuff. It’s a whole different ballgame out there now than it was even in 2018, when Zion Williamson was the hottest recruit in the nation.

Currently, according to 247 Sports, 2 of the top 10 college basketball recruits in the nation for the class of 2023 are bypassing college: #1 overall recruit Ron Holland, who went G-League Ignite, and Matas Buzelis, who also went G-League Ignite. Only three of the top 25 recruits are going pro. The other is AJ Johnson, who was originally committed to Texas, but then decommitted and chose to play professionally in Australia.

So it’s not like we’re seeing massive numbers of recruits opt against playing in college. For the most part, what we are seeing now is that the best of the best recruits are more likely to go straight to GLI or come from overseas.

We’re going to really need several more years to see this trend play out, because this NIL vs. GLI battle is recent development.

But what concerns me is that it feels like college basketball is not doing a great job of preparing these elite-level talents for the NBA. Think of how many high draft picks over the past 5-10 years have not panned out or are having trouble adjusting to the NBA. A common thread for most–but not all–of these guys is immaturity and/or inability to adjust mentally to the NBA.

• James Wiseman, #2 pick in 2020: Injury issues, probably should never have been drafted by Golden State; they had no interest in developing him and were concerned with winning titles. Wiseman was a victim of their misguided “two timelines” approach, which still didn’t prevent them from winning a title in 2022 but by now it’s clear they’ve given up on it. Traded to Detroit this past year and may never pan out because his development was stunted early. Confidence likely shot because he was glued to the end of the bench in Golden State despite being a high-profile prospect.
• Zion Williamson, #1 pick in 2019: Can’t stay healthy, love life all over the news. The guy is incredible when he plays but he can’t stay on the court and there’s talk that he’s not good about taking care of his body and he doesn’t have a good diet.
• Ja Morant, #2 pick in 2019: I think he’s overrated personally but he’s still a very good basketball player. Yet he’s incredibly immature and has just been suspended 25 games because he can’t stop waving guns around on IG Live.
• Deandre Ayton, #1 pick in 2018: Considered soft mentally, spends too much time playing video games, has a reputation for pouting and immaturity, seems like Phoenix wants to move off of him and has for a few years now.
• Marvin Bagley, #2 pick in 2018: Injuries have plagued his whole career and he’s never been able to really emerge.
• Markelle Fultz, #1 pick in 2017: Was so mentally messed up and in his own head he literally forgot how to shoot a basketball. Again: the #1 overall pick in the draft forgot how to shoot a basketball. Crazy.
• Lonzo Ball, #2 pick in 2017: Turned into a pretty good player, and seems like a great dude, but may never play basketball again because his knees have no cartilage. Widespread belief around the league his knees degenerated so bad because his dad made him wear his terrible Big Baller Brand shoes, which were horrible quality.
• Ben Simmons, #1 pick in 2016: Hyped up as the next LeBron, had a promising first few years but is either unwilling or unable to improve his shot and it has made him essentially unplayable. Nobody wants him anymore; mentally as soft as they come and is so afraid of missing shots he doesn’t even shoot the ball anymore. Just feels like he’s completely wrecked mentally.

Now, that’s not to say there haven’t been some hits:

• Anthony Edwards, #1 pick in 2020: One of my favorite young players in the league, has a lot of promise and made massive strides this past season particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
• Darius Garland, #5 pick in 2019: Excellent point guard talent who gets better with each passing season. Smart, humble and mature.
• Trae Young, #5 pick in 2018: Maybe a little too trigger-happy and ball-dominant but clearly a guy who was mentally ready for the NBA. Has moxie and isn’t afraid of the big moments. I like him a lot personally, however trade rumors have surrounded him for the past two years.
• Jayson Tatum, #3 pick in 2017: I can’t stand the way the media hypes him up like he’s the best player in the league but admittedly he is a good player. I do think he’s a big old pussy who crumbles when the shit hits the fan, though.
• De’Aaron Fox, #5 pick in 2017: Developed quietly and under the radar in Sacramento until finally becoming a household name this year. Won the inaugural “Clutch Player of the Year Award.” Mature, humble, all-around great dude. I’m a big fan of his.
• Brandon Ingram, #2 pick in 2016: Maybe hasn’t turned into the “Next KD” as people expected him to, but that was always a grossly unfair comp for him. Has averaged 24 points a game on 52% eFG shooting the past four seasons. A very nice player who will unfortunately always be under-appreciated because of his KD comp coming into the league.
• Jaylen Brown, #3 pick in 2016: Became a scapegoat a bit this year with his well-documented struggles in the playoffs, particularly his ball-handling, but has averaged 25 a game on 54.9% eFG shooting the past 3 years. There’s been some drama around him of late but ultimately I see him as a good player with his head screwed on straight.

The problem is, there should be a much higher hit-rate on college basketball players drafted within the top 5–especially in the top 2.

For the past 7 years or so, it’s really been a mixed bag. And I don’t expect it to get better with the trend of great prospects opting for G-League Ignite over the NCAA.