Okay, obviously the major storyline to come out of this game is Aaron Rodgers rupturing his achilles tendon (likely due to the MetLife turf playing surface but that’s a story for another day) just 4 plays into his Jets career. All the hype and excitement, Hard Knocks–and it’s over just like that. I normally despise all things New York and New York sports because I can’t stand people from New York, but I feel just sick for them, for Aaron especially, for his coaches and teammates.

I think think we may have seen the last of Aaron Rodgers in the NFL, honestly. It’s sucks that that was how it went down, but he’s going to be 40 years old in December, and it is a long, grueling 9-12 month recovery process for a ruptured achilles tendon. This is a guy who was leaning towards retirement after the end of last season. He claims to have a renewed fire and passion for the game–we’ll see about that. It’s going to be a tall order for him just to make it back for the start of next season, and I sure as hell hope he does, but I would not fault him for saying, “That’s it. The football gods have spoken. I’m done.”

It feels unfair, like a twist of fate so unthinkably cruel you couldn’t even script it in a movie. But there’s no one to blame, unless you want to blame the NFL and the owners for not mandating natural grass playing surfaces–which some of Rodgers’ teammates have already done. But even still, there’s no guarantee this wouldn’t have happened on natural grass. We just have no idea.

The only sliver of hope I can see here is that Cam Akers came back from a ruptured achilles in just six months. His surgeon was Dr. Neil ElAttrache, and I’m sure Rodgers was on the first plane out to see him this morning.

Now, Cam Akers definitely isn’t the same player he was before rupturing his achilles. But if we’re talking about Aaron Rodgers, who plays quarterback, even if he comes back with less speed and explosiveness, it’s not as big a deal as it was with Akers. He’s just going to be less mobile and elusive, but that was happening already with age.

I don’t know if he’ll hang it up. I think he probably will, but could you imagine the atmosphere inside of that stadium if he does in fact come back next season?

As for the Jets, they got an incredible and emotional win, but their hopes for a playoff and possibly Super Bowl run just took a significant blow. Obviously. People are talking about them bringing in a quarterback like Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, or even guys like Philip Rivers, Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick (who hasn’t played an NFL game since January 1, 2017, nearly 7 years ago). I’ve even seen people mention Tom Brady, but I highly doubt that since A. it’s the Jets, his mortal enemy for two decades, and B. why would he want to play behind that offensive line that couldn’t even keep Rodgers protected for one series?

They’re going to have to roll with Zach Wilson unless he just turns out to be totally unplayable. We saw how bad Matt Ryan looked last year. Nick Foles, too. Carson Wentz, I don’t know what’s going on with him but he’s not even that old yet somehow has lost all ability to play football. The Jets are just going to have to hope Zach Wilson learned enough from Rodgers in the offseason to get his career turned around. I know they weren’t planning on Wilson playing this soon, but that’s the situation they now find themselves in.

I had a feeling offensive line would be the Jets’ undoing this season, but I didn’t think it would become apparent this quickly. What really set off my alarm bells was that episode of Hard Knocks where Saleh is just ripping the offensive line a new one, basically telling them that they are the weak link in the chain and that they need to get better if the team is going to achieve its goals this season. My inference from that was, Saleh saw how bad the O-line was playing during training camp, and that ass-chewing he gave them came from a place of grave concern and desperation.

Well, it’s too late now. The Jets will just have to make the best of the situation. I can’t even put into words how sad, unfair, unfortunate, and fucked up it is that the Aaron Rodgers era in New York unfolded the way it did last night, but there’s nothing that can be done now to change it. They just have to press onward.

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What I want to talk about now is the Bills.

I’ve been a fan of Josh Allen for most of his NFL career. When people would bring up his turnovers and his tendency to make bone-headed decisions, I kind of brushed it off because of how good he can be, and normally is most of the time. It’s like, sure, he definitely leads the league in “What the hell was he thinking there?” moments, but for the most part, the good has far outweighed the bad with him. His recklessness wasn’t really holding them back.

Well, last night, it did. It cost them a game they should’ve won.

Look, teams in the NFL squander leads all the time. Comeback victories happen.

But that game last night felt different. It was like, the Bills were in complete control, but then they just gave the game away through sheer stupidity and poor decision-making. Specifically Josh Allen’s poor decision-making.

Why was he taking so many risks in that game? I just don’t get it.

After Aaron Rodgers went down, why did the Bills not just change their whole gameplan to become conservative?

If Aaron Rodgers is in the game, sure, I get it. Be aggressive. You’re probably going to have to score 25-30 points to win, and since the Jets have a great defense, you’ll have to take some risks to get there–both calculated risks and just, I don’t know, “uncalculated” risks. Josh Allen is going to have to make some plays, fit the ball into tight windows, put his body on the line, fight for a few extra yards, etc.

But when the Jets lost Aaron Rodgers, why was he still forcing the ball downfield, forcing the ball into tight windows, and being so careless running the football?

The only way the Jets were going to win that game after Rodgers went down is if Josh Allen turned the ball over 4 times.

And that’s exactly what he did!

The Bills know they have a good defense, they’re going up against Zach Wilson. They weren’t going to need more than 13-17 points to win the game. It went to OT tied at 16!

The Bills were winning 13-3 at halftime, and they could’ve just sat on the ball and played as conservatively as possible and they probably would’ve still won the game. They could’ve won that game with 13 points.

But for whatever reason, they kept the pedal to the medal even after Aaron Rodgers went down. I just don’t get it.

Every one of the Jets’ points in regulation came off of a Bills turnover. The Bills let the Jets back into this game and eventually let them win this game because of turnovers.

I don’t care how good you are and how bad the other team might be, you cannot expect to win a game turning the ball over 4 times. Not in the NFL.

Let’s just go over the four turnovers and their impact on the game.

First turnover was a deep pass that got picked off at the Jets 4 yard line. Call it an arm punt, I guess. It was on 3rd and 8 from the Buffalo 31. I don’t know why Josh Allen even threw the ball, though, considering his receiver was double covered. There was no need to go for the home run.

Overall, the bottom line impact on his team was, in my view, negligible, and even though the Jets did get a field goal out of the ensuing drive, you can’t blame the interception. Again, it was an arm punt, and when the other team takes over on their own 4 yard line, I don’t really consider any points they score on the ensuing drive “points off a turnover,” even though technically they are. The Bills defense screwed up by letting up an 83 yard run to Breece Hall immediately on first down.

But still, whatever. That was the only Buffalo turnover of the first half and they went into halftime up 13-3. Again, I think if Buffalo just played conservatively in the second half, they would’ve won the game–they probably didn’t even need to score any more points.

Okay, so the Jets got a field goal on their opening drive of the second half. 12 plays, 50 yards. Bills are still up 13-6, and if you count on your defense to force field goals, the Jets still need three of them to beat you.

I know Buffalo was only up 7 and probably wanted more breathing room, but there is still no reason to play aggressive here because you have a good enough offense that even if you play conservative in the second half, you’re still not going to get shutout. If Buffalo had just made it their gameplan to have two second half scoring drives, and try to run the clock out and take care of the ball, they win this game easily.

Instead, on their next drive, Josh Allen threw another pick. It was on a deep shot to Diggs, who was well covered. The play didn’t stand a chance, and Allen overthrew Diggs anyway. You could see Diggs immediately try to turn into a defender, he knew the only thing he could do was try to break it up, but the ball was so far overthrown that he couldn’t even get there to break it up.

This one wasn’t very detrimental, in a vacuum, because it was another arm punt that resulted in a touchback, and the Jets then went 4 plays, 19 yards and punted on their ensuing offensive drive.

But even though this turnover didn’t directly lead to any Jets points, it kind of goes back to what I was saying about the first interception: why are you taking deep shots here? I’m sure the coaches didn’t tell Josh Allen to throw deep into double coverage on multiple occasions, but why even call this type of play?

On this second INT, it was 2nd and 13 at the Jets 41 yard line. You’re like 5-10 yards from being in field goal range! Just pick up a few yards there. Play for the first down and then if that fails on second down, play for a closer field goal.

What the heck were the Bills thinking taking a deep shot there? I just don’t get it. They were so close to being in field goal range, and if you go up 16-6, you’re in great shape. The Jets are probably not scoring 10 points on your defense.

I just don’t get why Buffalo was taking deep shots in a situation like that.

So the teams traded punts on the next three possessions—2 punts for the Jets, 1 for the Bills.

Then Buffalo has the ball to start the 4th quarter, still up 13-6. It’s a 3rd down and 2 on their own 43 yard line, on a drive that had begun at the Buffalo 15.

So the Bills are moving the ball pretty well. Obviously it’s tough against that defense, but they’re moving the ball, and they’re about 20-25 yards away from being in field goal range.

This is where I really have to put the blame on Josh Allen specifically. I’m going to show you some screenshots from this play.

Look at Stefon Diggs. Wide ass open for a first down. Allen isn’t even looking at him. Why are you not just taking the easy check down for a first down?

And look at how good his protection is. He’s got plenty of time to scan the field and throw, but he doesn’t go back to his earlier reads.

I haven’t even showed you who he threw to and what coverage he was throwing into, but immediately, you see how wide open Diggs is. There’s a Jets defender just off the screen to the left, but he’s 3 yards past the first down line. There’s no way he gets to Diggs quickly enough to prevent him from getting the first down.

Oh, and not only is Diggs wide open for a guaranteed first down, they’ve got rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid wide open past the first down line, too. You can see him in the top left corner of the above image and this one below:

It’s really blurry because the camera is panning quickly with the ball but you can see here as the camera shifts to the left just how wide open BOTH Diggs and Kincaid were, and both would’ve gotten first downs.

The DB behind Kincaid (top left) sees that the ball is going further downfield so he turns around to run that way, but even if the ball was going to Kincaid, the DB would not have been there in time to break up the pass. It’s still a first down.

This is what Josh Allen was throwing into when he set his sights on Gabe Davis, number 13:

Gabe Davis is somewhat open, but because he’s further away than Kincaid and Diggs are, the ball is going to take longer to get to him. It’ll give the DBs time to catch up to him.

And that’s what happens here:

For one thing, Davis was more covered than both Diggs and Kincaid were. Second of all, it was an under thrown ball by Allen. He didn’t lead Gabe Davis towards the sideline. He threw it to where Davis was, not to where he was going to be. So it’s not only a bad decision but a bad throw, too.

By the way, that was the 3rd pick of the game for Jets safety Jordan Whitehead. All three picks were to him.

This one, to me, was the most inexcusable for Josh Allen. 

Why, in a game where you just need to tack on a few more field goals, are you passing up easy first downs to force the ball into tight coverage downfield?

Why are you passing up easy first downs at all?

This would’ve been a bad decision in any game, not just a game where you know you have the luxury of being conservative.

To me, this just screams “Low Football IQ” and bad decision-making driven by greed. This is not on the coaches or the playcalling, this is on Josh Allen. He had guys open for first downs, and he chose to throw it to the guy who had defenders close to him further downfield.

On third down, all you should care about is picking up the first down. What is so wrong with a 3 yard completion for a first down? The most important thing here is getting the first down.

Josh Allen just got greedy here. He thought, “I can make this throw and I’d rather have 15 yards than 3 yards.”

Just inexcusable. Take the first down. You never go broke taking a profit. There are times for aggression and gambling, and there are times for being conservative and just taking what the defense gives you. This falls into the latter category.

You need first downs in football. That’s the only way to continue your drive. On third down, your only goal should be picking up a first down, unless you have something spectacular dialed up that the defense will never expect. 

But those play calls are only for very rare and unique situations—definitely not in a game where you are AHEAD and playing against the other team’s BACKUP quarterback who there are doubts about whether he is even cut out to be an NFL quarterback in the first place.

In the Bills’ situation here, up 7 points with under 10 minutes to play, with the ball, all you should be looking to do is move the chains, run the clock, and tack on a few extra points.

And that’s another thing: why would you even want to push the ball down the field at all here? You’re trying to run clock. Take the short completion for a first down because you’ll be able to run more plays and more clock!

If it seems like I’m Mad Online about this, it’s because I am. Josh Allen is too good of a football player to be playing this poorly.

Okay, look. I understand that the first few weeks of the NFL season, nobody is playing their best football. There’s still rust to shake off, kinks to work out, chemistry to develop, and you just generally have to get into regular season form. It doesn’t happen immediately, it takes time.

But this play right here, this is not just a matter of not being in mid-season form. This is all mental. This is purely about football IQ, seeing the field, and making good decisions. This is something he shouldn’t need reps to get right. This is the one area of a quarterback’s game that shouldn’t be prone to rust. I get if you need some reps to get your deep ball calibrated, but not for a play like this.

Josh Allen just has this unique ability to make the most difficult plays look easy and make the easiest plays look difficult.

It’s like a restaurant that makes the best cocktails, and the best appetizers, and the Baked Alaska for dessert is to die for, but the ribeye steak main course tastes like shoe leather.

It’s like a basketball player who can drain threes from the logo but can’t make a layup to save his life.

If Josh Allen could just make the easy plays, he would be unstoppable. Somebody has to get it through his head that there’s nothing wrong with picking up 3 yards and a first down. When the first down line is only 2 yards away, you don’t get bonus points for picking up 15 yards on that play. All you need is enough yardage for the first down. Then when you have a fresh set of downs, you can push the ball downfield.

This is JV-level football fundamentals, though. He knows all this. Yet for whatever reason, he doesn’t remember it when he’s out there. I think he plays by instinct or something—like he doesn’t actually think when he’s out there.

Don’t get me wrong, quarterbacks—really all football players—have to be quick thinkers and quick decision-makers. But you can’t just play purely by instinct.

Alright, so anyways, the Jets get the ball at their own 43 and went down the field and tied the game up. It was on that amazing Garrett Wilson touchdown catch, which by the way was one of the craziest catches I’ve ever seen. My jaw dropped  as I watched it live. That’s in the top 3 catches I’ve ever seen, up there with the Odell catch and maybe even ahead of it.

Can you pin that drive all on Josh Allen? No, not all of it. Not in a vacuum. Defense still let up a 57 yard scoring drive.

But the whole argument I’m making here is that it shouldn’t have happened in the first place. The Bills should’ve just kept the chains moving and the clock running. The Jets shouldn’t have gotten the ball there in the first place. And that’s where you have to pin it on Josh Allen.

Okay, so the game is tied at 13 now. The Jets have come all the way back, and now Josh Allen actually has to lead his team on a scoring drive to re-take the lead. There’s just under 5 minutes to play in the game, Buffalo has first and 10 at their own 25.

First play of the drive, Allen is in shotgun, mishandles the snap. But he’s able to pick it up off the ground, luckily. Unfortunately, he doesn’t just dive on the ball—no, he gets greedy here and tries to just power run it up the gut. But he didn’t fully secure the ball, runs right into a defender and then fumbles it again, this time with the Jets recovering it.

If you thought the third INT he threw was bone-headed, this one takes it to a whole different level. If he just fell on the ball and secured it, it would’ve only been like a three yard loss. There was no need to try to scramble after picking the ball up—it was first down. If it was third down and they were losing, I would totally understand—just pick up that ball and try to make something happen.

But it was first down, they were deep in their own territory, and the game was tied! There was no need to try to make something happen there.

I haven’t even talked about how the snap was perfect and Josh Allen completely took his eye off the ball, and that’s why he fumbled it in the first place. We’re not even going to get into that.

But again, this is yet another moment where Josh Allen displays extremely low Football IQ and situational awareness, and horrible decision-making.

So now the Jets get a field goal out of that great starting field position, and the Bills are losing 16-13. This is where my game analysis will conclude, because from this point on, whether Josh Allen leads the Bills down the field to tie the game or win it, or win it in overtime, it’s irrelevant to our discussion here because he gave the game away already. By this point, with his team now down 16-13, he has already fumbled the bag.

They had the lead, and then because of two enormously costly turnovers by him, that were both completely his fault, they saw their lead disappear and then found themselves losing the game.

Even if he were to somehow save the day and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, it would have only been him making up for his own blunders. Once the score was 16-13 Jets, there’s nothing Josh Allen could’ve done that would’ve made me give him any credit or kudos. He’s already given the game away.

You know what? I hate to say this, but I’m starting to see a lot of Carson Wentz in Josh Allen. Allen is a lot more talented than Wentz, but he’s prone to the same disastrous mistakes and bone-headed decisions.

Carson Wentz played football like every play was 4th and 10, Super Bowl on the line. The guy just never knew when to go down, or when to throw the ball away–the idea of “cut your losses” was a foreign concept to him. If he was being sacked, he’d still try to fling the ball blindly and make a play. More often than not he would get picked off, or fumble the ball. He was just always trying to win the whole game on a single play, which is impossible. And it’s probably a big part of the reason he’s out of the league—that, and his injuries, which in my view were mostly a byproduct of his inability to just go down.

I see a lot of this in Josh Allen, and I know his heart is in the right place, so to speak. Like I know he’s not trying to hurt his team. He’s trying to make a big play.

But intent doesn’t matter in football—results matter. Whatever his intentions were on all four of his turnovers is irrelevant, the only thing that matters is that he turned the ball over and the other team has it now.

Josh Allen has to be better. I’m not saying he’s going down the Carson Wentz path because for one thing, he’s better than Wentz was, plus he doesn’t have the injury history Wentz has. But if he can’t start making some better decisions, and taking better care of the football, he’s going to alienate his teammates, and his coaches, too.

Because it’s selfish, in a way, isn’t it? Two of those turnovers were his fault, and a result of nothing but his own greediness to make a play. Nobody else on his team had any fault in those two turnovers, which cost the team the game. That’s the power and responsibility you have as a quarterback—a lot of times, when you make a mistake, you’re the only one to blame. You can singlehandedly be the difference between a win and a loss for your team.

Josh Allen has to play smarter. He’s 27 years old, there are no excuses. He just cost his team a game they had absolutely no business losing.