I’ve got the Youtube TV sports package now so I can watch 4 games at once on the same TV. Since I already have two TVs going, I can have games on at once which is just amazing.
The upshot is that I’m able to watch so many more games now. I’m keeping tabs on just about everything now.
Georgia: Started off looking horrible, down 14-3 to South Carolina at half, then the Dawgs woke up in the second half outscoring the Gamecocks 21-0. Georgia isn’t dominant, at least not yet, but they still showed that they can really flip the switch and start dominating.
I guess we should’ve expected them to kind of be sleepwalking a bit through this schedule, because it’s really one of the easiest schedules in the country when we’re looking at the top teams. We thought the toughest team on Georgia’s schedule would be Tennessee, but Tennessee just got embarrassed by a deeply flawed Florida team.
You compare Georgia’s schedule to like Ohio State’s—Ohio State has to play 3 teams that are currently ranked in the top 10: Notre Dame, Penn State and Michigan. Georgia doesn’t play a single team in their regular season schedule that is as good as any of those teams. Plus Ohio State has to go to Wisconsin.
You look at USC’s schedule, for instance: over the next 5 weeks, USC will have Colorado on the road, Notre Dame on the road, and then immediately after Notre Dame they host Utah. Their last three games of the season are home vs. Washington (who looks really good right now), then at Oregon, and then host UCLA. That is a crazy difficult schedule.
Washington has 5 currently ranked teams remaining on their schedule: Oregon, at USC, Utah, at Oregon State, and Washington State. The last four are consecutive—their month of October consists of at USC, then home vs. Utah, then at Oregon State, and then home vs. Washington State.
Look, I’m not trying to say Georgia is fraudulent or they have to prove themselves or anything. They’re the one team in the country who can get away with playing a light schedule because they’re back-to-back National Champions. They don’t have to prove shit to us.
So I’m not really concerned about Georgia even though they didn’t even show up for the first half against South Carolina, and if Spencer Rattler had any sort of pass protection at all South Carolina could’ve won that game.
Georgia had a few sleepwalk games last season, too. This stuff happens when you’re the defending National Champion, and it’ll probably happen even more when you’re the two time defending National Champion with a cakewalk schedule. Your players lose focus, they start to look ahead, they’re like “Man, let’s just get to the playoff already.” They might start to think they’re too good for the regular season. And that’s perfectly understandable. Georgia almost lost to Mizzou on the road last year; they didn’t look good against freaking Kent State; and they kind of snoozed through the Kentucky game on the road.
And they still won the Natty.
Plus, Georgia is dealing with a ton of injuries this year. Ladd McConkey hasn’t played a snap, Javon Bullard is dealing with an ankle, Amarius Mims is banged up; Branson Robinson, who was supposed to be their lead running back, will miss the whole season.
I’m just not going to freak out about Georgia. Yes, I still have my questions about their offensive ceiling with Carson Beck, and I do not think he’s anywhere near as good as Stetson Bennett, but I think he’s good enough to get them through their regular season unbeaten—that is to say, I think him plus their defense is more than enough. I’m not going to pull the fire alarm and start airing out grievances until there’s actually a reason to with this Georgia team.
Alabama: ESPN was hyping up Bama after they lost to Texas saying stuff like, “Watch out now! Nobody wants to play a pissed off Bama team!” Yeah, right. South Florida gave them everything they could handle. That’s a Bama team with a NINETY PERCENT blue chip ratio against a South Florida squad that went 1-11 last year. This South Florida team lost, this season, 41-24 to Western Kentucky—the same Western Kentucky team that Ohio State just beat by 53 points. I don’t want to hear any excuses for Bama. They’re horrible.
Also, why didn’t Bama go after Sam Hartman in the transfer portal? How’d they end up with Tyler Buchner, the quarterback that Notre Dame kicked to the curb when they brought in Hartman? How did Bama not end up with Hartman?
So they bench Jalen Milroe, who I didn’t think played too badly against Texas, and bring in Tyler Buchner, a guy who I thought was very, very average at Notre Dame last year. And then they didn’t like what they saw out of Buchner so they brought in Ty Simpson, the highly touted 5-star QB from the class of 2022 who was supposed to be the savior but couldn’t even win the backup job this year. I guess Simpson played the best—at least their offense moved the ball the best with him in.
Overall, Bama threw for 107 yards in this game. 107!
But Bama doesn’t have any real legit options at quarterback. So I figured why not just stick with Milroe because the upside with him is that he’s an incredible runner—like if you have three quarterbacks and they’re all mid at throwing the ball, start the guy who is the best runner.
I guess not. That Bama offensive line was terrible, could not pass protect and could not run block. The final box score says Bama ran for 4.8 yards a carry, but midway through the 4th quarter when the game was still in doubt, it was 3.8. Most of that game they could not run on SOUTH FLORIDA’s defensive front.
It’s a mess at Alabama. Tommy Rees is not a good offensive coordinator, they have no quarterbacks, their skill players are nothing close to what we’re used to seeing out of Bama, and Saban is getting old. I don’t know what compelled him to look at the Notre Dame offense from last year and say, “That’s what I want down here.” Literally brought over Notre Dame’s offensive coordinator and quarterback.
I might have been being too kind to Bama in saying they’re a 3-4 loss team this year—they could lose 5 or 6 games this year honestly.
I don’t see how they beat Ole Miss next week. I know the game is in Tuscaloosa, but so was the Texas game. They’re not unbeatable at home anymore. I really don’t see how they can score enough points against Ole Miss to win that game. Bama’s offense got shut down for more than 3 quarters by SOUTH FLORIDA!
I’ll tell you what: if Lane Kiffin doesn’t beat Saban this time, he might not ever get the chance again. It has to happen right now for Lane Kiffin—this is the moment. He might not get another chance, either, because I think Saban is retiring after this season.
So it’s now or never, Lane.
Florida State: Looked pretty mid on the road up at Boston College. Escaped with the 31-29 win but I’m not sure how much we can take from this because apparently the FSU team had a flu bug going around. Not that it’s an excuse because they’re a far superior team to Boston College, plus they had this game pretty much locked up late, up 31-16 in the 4th quarter, before letting BC back into it. BC had 18 penalties or else they very well could’ve won this game.
The good news for Florida State is that they can erase the memory of this Boston College game very quickly—they play Clemson this weekend, and if FSU wins as expected, nobody will talk about the BC game.
This is FSU’s last real test in the ACC. If they beat Clemson, they’re home free. There is no reason they shouldn’t make it to the playoff. I mean, yeah, they’ve got Duke at home on October 21st, and Duke is now ranked and 3-0, but if FSU is for real, they will not let their season be derailed by Duke. Then they’ve got the Miami rivalry game on November 11th, we’ll see if Miami is for real but they did look pretty good against A&M. Luckily this is a home game for FSU too, so they should be favored in it.
And then it’s just Florida in the last game of the regular season. It will be a road game, and Florida might actually be somewhat decent this year after we all left them for dead following their embarssing loss to Utah in week 1. But this game doesn’t count in ACC play for FSU—all it can do is potentially derail their CFP chances, but since they have that big win over LSU, even if FSU loses to UF, as long as they bounce back and win the ACC Championship, they should still have a great chance of making the playoff as a 12-1 Conference Champion.
They don’t have to play North Carolina in the regular season. The only way they’ll play UNC is if it’s in the ACC Championship. The last real test is this weekend, Florida State. Let’s see what you’re made of.
Only -2.5 though on the road at Clemson? VERY interesting line there. I would’ve thought FSU would be a much bigger favorite. Vegas seems to think they’re on upset alert. I will not be out with my power ratings until after week 4 is in the books so I can’t offer you up any alternatives but this is a VERY curious line….
Michigan: Alright, I’m about to go in, because I’m sick of these Michigan fans who live in la la land.
You know if Ohio State had played Bowling Green at home and was only up 14-6 at halftime, and Kyle McCord threw three picks in the game, it would be national point and laugh at Ohio State week. The fanbase would be calling for Ryan Day’s job, Michigan fans would be ecstatic about it and laughing their asses off, SEC fans would be saying “see I told y’all there ain’t no good teams outside of the SEC!!!”
Ohio State would never hear the end of it.
But when Michigan does it, it’s no big deal at all barely talked about. Whatever. They’ll be fine. Harbaugh was still on suspension. JJ McCarthy is still the greatest quarterback in the history of football, a combination of Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, Michigan is ELITE and DOMINANT and PERFECT and whatever.
Where is the evidence that Michigan is the second best team in the country? Yes they bring back a lot of talent from last year, but last year’s team also lost to TCU in the playoff.
TCU LOST BY 58 TO GEORGIA! They racked up a grand total of 188 yards of total offense against Georgia.
Against Michigan’s vaunted defense? 488 yards.
Michigan let up 51 points to TCU. Georgia let up 7 to them. Yes, 14 of those points were off pick sixes (the great JJ McCarthy!)
Michigan fans always default to the “We beat Ohio State!” Okay, cool, great. But what did you do after? You came out in the playoff looking like dogshit, were down 21-6 at the half and then tried to make a comeback in the second half, which ultimately comes up short, and I’m supposed to buy into the hype of Michigan as a National Championship contender?
Why does nobody ever talk about Michigan’s high profile postseason losses? In 2021 they got absolutely pulverized by Georgia in the playoff. The game was totally uncompetitive. Michigan didn’t even belong on the field.
And the TCU game last year, it’s like it never even happened! It’s been completely erased from history I feel like. People talk about Michigan like, “Well they went into Ohio State and won by 20, Michigan is looking really strong coming into 2023, folks.” What did they do after that though?!
If Michigan was as good as people say they are, why did they get embarrassed by TCU in the playoff? Was it because Harbaugh was thinking about the NFL? (I’m sure he’s completely forgotten about the NFL now, though, right?)
No, it was because JJ McCarthy played like shit, Harbaugh’s playcalling and decision making was too cute for his own good (they squandered at least 2 goal line possessions on offense), and because their defense was not anywhere near as good as it looked all season.
They lost to a Big 12 team that Georgia beat by 58 points. I’m sorry but in what world does that make them a National Title contender?
Only Michigan gets graded on a curve like that. Only Michigan.
Only Michigan’s quarterback can be deemed “generational” by his head coach and then go out and throw three picks against Bowling Green, and still not get clowned.
JJ McCarthy is a decent quarterback. I’ve seen him make a few good throws, he’s mobile, but otherwise, most of his touchdown throws are to wide-ass open receivers on busted coverages. I mean for fuck’s sake he put up numbers against an Ohio State secondary that was getting barbecued by everyone last season. Sean Clifford threw for 371 against them! And McCarthy threw for a lot of yards against a Big 12 defense.
Other than that, he didn’t do much of anything last year. They didn’t even trust him to run the offense until the TCU game. He had 2 games last year where he went over 300 yards, and one of them was against a Big 12 defense. They only let him throw 30+ pass attempts in 3 games last season.
If you think JJ McCarthy is a legit quarterback, please just go back and watch the highlights of that Ohio State game. Go look at those touchdown throws and tell me if ANY one of them were due to him being a great quarterback rather than Ohio State’s DBs pissing down their legs.
His first touchdown pass was impressive, off the back foot. But it would’ve gone for 9 yards intstead of 69 yards if the Ohio State defender would’ve just made the tackle on the wide receiver who was standing still when he caught the ball.
Please, just watch those plays from the Ohio State game. I could’ve made most of those touchdown throws McCarthy made. I mean for goodness sakes the second touchdown pass the defender was barely even in camera frame and the receiver still had to adjust for the ball.
JJ McCarthy, Generational Arm talent—not many QBs could make this throw!
Oh wow, what an amazing throw by McCarthy! That’s an NFL throw right there!
Michigan hasn’t had a good quarterback in so long that their fans have completely lost all perspective on what good quarterback play looks like. It’s been a long line of Cade McNamaras and Wilton Speights and Shea Pattersons and John O’Korns and Jake Rudocks and Tate Forciers—interjected with running QBs like Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner. So I get it: it’s been a really long time since Michigan had a quarterback with an even remotely competent arm.
But just because JJ McCarthy is better than John O’Korn doesn’t mean he’s actually good in absolute terms.
Michigan fans need a reality check here.
This is a really bad interception by JJ in the Playoff game:
Even this good throw was underthrown, and because it was underthrown, it cost Michigan a touchdown.
It got reviewed, the touchdown was overturned, and the ball was placed on the half yard line, and then Michigan fumbled the snap immediately, turnover. If the throw was in stride, it’s an easy touchdown; instead, the receiver had to go back for it and fell down.
Look, Michigan has a good team, I think. They’ve only got two real teams on their schedule, Penn State and Ohio State, and they’ve had both those teams’ numbers as of late. So they may very well go undefeated and make it to the playoff again.
But there is no reason not to expect more of the same from Michigan in the postseason again this year. Michigan is 1-7 in major bowl games (meaning either CFP games, New Year’s Six Bowl games, or BCS Bowl games prior to 2014) dating back to 2000, losing by an average of over 10 points a game. They have not won a single major bowl game in over a decade.
Michigan fans had better hope I’m wrong because this might be their only shot at a National Championship for a while. When the Chargers fire Brandon Staley, Harbaugh is going after that job.
Tennessee: Just can’t get it done in the Swamp, ever. Wow. I think it was 7-6 Tennessee when I went to take a shower, then when I got out it was 19-7 Florida, and Florida immediately added a touchdown to make it 26-7. Gol-lee, man. Tennessee just melts into a puddle the second they set foot into Gainesville, Florida. 2-16 in their previous 18 trips to UF prior to this game, now 2-17.
I was hoping for a great game here. I really was. This was the marquee matchup of the night, and I know this used to be one of the biggest rivalries in the sport back in the 1990s and early 2000s.
I wish this was a great rivalry because I was too young for it in the 90s. I always hear about the great Florida-Tennessee rivalry, but since I’ve been watching football it’s never been anything to write home about—Florida pretty much owns Tennessee.
Look, Tennessee lost their offensive coordinator Alex Golesh (who is now the coach at South Florida and gave Bama a scare), they lost Hendon Hooker, they lost Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman—I don’t know why we expected them to just reload this season. Joe Milton has an absolute rocket launcher of an arm but he’s never really been able to make it work, yet we expected this to be the year it finally clicks for him. Tennessee was a one year wonder last year, that’s the way it looks.
Washington: went into East Lansing and just beat the living piss out of Michigan State, 41-7. I think those Michigan State players quit on the program. They see what’s happening to their coach and I think they’re in protest. They know the school is just trying to find an excuse to get rid of Mel Tucker. I don’t really put a whole lot of stock into this game.
But I still have to give Washington some credit. They called off the dogs when it was 41-0 but they really could’ve named their score—50, 60, 70, whatever they wanted. It was 35-0 at halftime.
Michael Penix is a stud quarterback and this is a team that can absolutely win the Pac 12 and make the playoff. It’s a really tough schedule for them, but I’m very excited to see the rest of it play out. They’ve got Oregon at home in 3 weeks, then four ranked teams in November—USC, Utah, Oregon State and Washington State. I can’t wait to see those games.
Ohio State at Notre Dame
Okay, now for the marquee matchup of the week. Actually, there are a lot of great games coming up this weekend, and I’ll just run through them first real quick:
- First up is Rutgers at Michigan. Now I know this doesn’t seem like a good game, but Rutgers is actually 3-0, their defense has looked good, and Greg Schiano is hungry for a signature win here. I don’t think Rutgers wins the game, but they will definitely be playing hard and doing everything they can to make this one competitive. It should be at least a mildly interesting game.
- Florida State at Clemson: this one is actually an early window game which is nice to have.
- Colorado at Oregon: Afternoon window, Oregon should roll and the Colorado hype train will go off the tracks, but I’m still going to watch this one. It should be interesting, even if Oregon wins in a blowout–which they are expected to. The line right now is Oregon -21.5, and I think it’s too low. You heard Dan Lanning take shots at Colorado the other day in his press conference, asking when has Colorado ever won anything in the Pac 12? I think he’s sick of the media hype and attention Colorado is getting and he’s going to run up the score. Colorado has just put a target on themselves and I think the big boys out there want to beat them by 50. Oregon is the first big boy that gets a crack at them, and I’m sure Lanning is pissed that Colorado sucks all the oxygen out of the room with the media when Oregon trying to promote their quarterback Bo Nix for Heisman.
- UCLA at Utah: Ranked vs. ranked in the afternoon window.
- Oregon State at Washington State: ranked vs. ranked in the evening window. Didn’t even realize Oregon State was ranked 14th in the country.
- Iowa at Penn State: another ranked vs. ranked matchup.
But Ohio State vs. Notre Dame is the big one. It’s the only top-10 matchup of the week, and these are two high-profile programs.
For Ohio State going into the Notre Dame game, I have three big questions:
- Can the offensive line hold up? They are replacing two tackles who are both already starting in the NFL—Paris Johnson, who was drafted 6th overall, and Dawand Jones, who was drafted in the 4th round but already looks to be a high level starter for the Browns.
- Can Kyle McCord win a four quarter game? That is, if this game is tight in the 4th quarter and he needs to lead Ohio State on a drive to take the lead, can he do that? Can he come through under pressure, in the clutch, on the road, against a top-10 football team? I don’t know, but I think a big problem for him in the first couple weeks of the season has been confidence—he didn’t look comfortable in the pocket but he did look more confident against WKU.
- Can the pass rush actually generate some pressure?
At first it looked like the Ohio State defense was kind of getting lit up—like they couldn’t cover those Western Kentucky receivers and couldn’t get pressure on the quarterback.
But they only let up 10 points and 284 yards of offense to one of the most prolific offenses in the sport. Fewest yards they had in 2022 was 352. In 2021, their fewest yardage total was also 352 yards, against Middle Tennessee State, and it was the only game in which an opponent held them to under 400 yards.
Right now, Ohio State ranks 3rd in the nation in composite talent, behind only Alabama and Georgia. Georgia and Ohio State are pretty much neck and neck, with Georgia being at a 977 and Ohio State being at a 974 (comparison: Bama is at 1,015 in first place and Texas A&M, in fourth place, is at 926.)
Notre Dame ranks 11th in talent with an 870 overall score, but that’s also with only 79 commits vs. Ohio State’s 85. Ohio State has an average player score of 93.32 vs. 91.16 for Notre Dame. Georgia is actually a bit lower than Ohio State at 93.00.
Ohio State has 10 5-star players on their roster and Notre Dame has just 1. Ohio State leads the nation in 4-star players with 63, while Notre Dame is actually, surprisingly, tied for second most in the country with 56—they’re tied with Alabama. Notre Dame actually has more 4-star players than Georgia does—Georgia has 52. However, Georgia has 13 5-star players, too.
Compared to other programs in the top 10-12 range, Notre Dame just lags behind in 5-star players. They’re the only team in the top-14 that doesn’t have multiple 5-star players on the roster.
Historically, Notre Dame has always done well at producing offensive linemen—I’m talking about NFL guys. That’s probably their best position group when it comes to churning out NFL talent these days. A lot of these big time programs have their own signature position groups—Wisconsin with offensive linemen, Iowa with tight ends (side note: did you know Iowa has more players in the NFL than USC? 29 to 26), Penn State with linebackers, Georgia with defensive linemen and linebackers, Ohio State and Bama with wide receivers, etc. Notre Dame’s best position group is offensive linemen. They’ve got guys like the Cowboys’ Zack Martin (probably a future hall of famer), Quentin Nelson of the Colts (perennial Pro Bowler), Ronnie Stanley of the Ravens, and Mike McGlinchey of the Broncos (previously 49ers).
SI did a piece in 2020 ranking which team should be considered “OLU” or Offensive Lineman U, and Notre Dame came in first place on their scoring system. Ohio State still managed to come in 5th, but it goes to show you good Notre Dame has been over the past decade-plus at producing offensive linemen.
True to form, their tackle, Joe Alt, is a projected top-10 pick in next year’s draft. He’s a 6’7” 320lb giant who will be key for Notre Dame on Saturday night. If he is able to keep Sam Hartman clean in the pocket, Notre Dame will have a fantastic shot of winning this game.
Being “OLU” might have been a Brian Kelly thing—it remains to be seen whether Marcus Freeman will keep the tradition going, although he is more of a defensive minded-head coach so it’s possible he shifts the program’s priorities.
But as It stands right now, Joe Alt is the top draft prospect on the Notre Dame roster right now. I’ve checked out a few mock drafts, and they vary on where they have him going, but what is consistent is that he’s the only projected first rounder on the team right now.
Ohio State, on the other hand, has anywhere from 4-7 first rounders: Marvin Harrison Jr. for certain, defensive end JT Tuimoloau, receiver Emeka Egbuka (very underrated—he will be a really solid pro in the NFL yet he’s completely overshadowed by Marvin Harrison Jr.), defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr., cornerback Denzel Burke (really improved a lot this year and may be playing himself into the first round, although it’s early), and possibly even defensive end Jack Sawyer, although to me that’s a bit of a long shot (he’ll probably be second or third round). And then I haven’t seen left guard Donovan Jackson mocked in the first round, but I wouldn’t be surprised if by January/February he’s a consensus first round pick.
By the way, the record for most first round draft picks from a single school in one year is 6, set by Alabama’s 2020 team in the 2021 draft. Ohio State has a real shot to tie that number. And then in the later rounds, they could have as many as 15-16 guys drafted overall. The record for most draft picks is 15 by the 2021 Georgia squad in the 2022 draft.
So Ohio State definitely has more top-end NFL talent, at least as it pertains to next year’s draft. If they max out, run the table and win the Natty, I could see them getting 15 guys drafted. It’s a real possibility. This is an absolutely loaded roster. In fact, with how poorly Alabama is playing—and how it seems they’re not really developing their talent like they used to—I would feel comfortable saying this Ohio State squad is the best roster in the country. They’re already #2 in the blue chip ratio, so it’s not much of a stretch. I’ve said it before but if CJ Stroud had come back for his senior year instead of going to the NFL, I would have taken Ohio State to win the Natty without hesitation. It’s that great of a roster. It’s just that Kyle McCord at quarterback is a big question mark.
I looked at a second round mock draft and Notre Dame has linebacker Joe Kiser projected to go there.
But look, Notre Dame has probably equal or at least close talent to what Ohio State has in the middle—the offensive and defensive lines, linebacker, and even running back. They’ve got the edge at quarterback—Sam Hartman is just so experienced and polished.
Ohio State has the edge in perimeter talent: wide receivers, tight ends, corners, safeties. Overall, they’re just a better team.
But there’s a lot going in favor of Notre Dame in this matchup: it’s at home for them, they have the revenge factor from losing last year to Ohio State (Freeman might even be too obsessed with beating Ohio State, and he said as much last year), and they have a far more experienced quarterback.
Sam Hartman is probably the best quarterback Notre Dame has had since Brady Quinn. It’s been a long time. For whatever reason, Notre Dame hasn’t been great at quarterback for well over a decade. Brian Kelly was just never able to get the position right. Now it looks like they have.
This is the real game changer for Notre Dame. Sam Hartman is a legit quarterback (even though for some reason it looks like he dyes his beard despite being 24 years old).
This guy has experience in spades. He’s been playing college football since 2018–I was sitting there trying to figure it out because his career stat table is crazy.
If you play 4 games or fewer, you can redshirt which is apparently what he did in 2019. It may have been injury, I’m not exactly sure. But 2019 counted as a redshirt year, and then the 2020 season didn’t actually count against players’ eligibility years remaining, so that’s why Hartman (and many other players) is able to be on his sixth year of college football.
Sam Hartman’s first season of college football, Urban Meyer was still coaching Ohio State. He’s been playing quarterback longer than Ryan Day has been a head coach. Hartman has been around the block. He’s the all-time ACC leader in career passing touchdowns with 110, and second in career passing yards behind only Philip Rivers. If he stayed at Wake Forest, he would have far surpassed Rivers this season—he finished only about 500 yards behind him.
My biggest thing with this game is that I think it’ll be a four quarter game, and I just trust Hartman more than I trust McCord when it comes to winning a four quarter game. I think Hartman has the experience to be able to make plays when the pressure is the highest. I don’t know if McCord can lead his team down the field to tie or retake the lead in the 4th quarter if he’s called upon to do that. It just seems like a big ask of a quarterback making his 4th career start—on the road, crowd going wild, bright lights, having to be perfect.
And Notre Dame just feels like an excellent team to me. Maybe I’m drinking the kool aid because they haven’t really played anyone that good, and maybe part of it is that I watched their week 0 game against Navy in Ireland (because it was the only game on) and they looked very dominant. Notre Dame and Navy played towards the end of last season—they play every season, I believe. Notre Dame barely squeaked out a victory, 35-32. This was November 12, 2022. And then they played to open up this season and Notre Dame won 42-3. That seems like a big improvement to me. Could be in part because the Notre Dame coaching staff and players had already seen the triple option attack last season so they were way more prepared for it the second time—it’s hard to prepare for and handle the service academy offensive attack if you’ve never seen it before.
But it could just be be that Notre Dame leveled up in a major way this off-season, first and foremost by getting a legit quarterback for the first time since George W. Bush was president.
Something just feels different about Notre Dame this year. For the first time in my life, I actually think Notre Dame is a legit team.
I clown Michigan and Notre Dame all the time—by far the most overrated programs in the history of college football. Arrogant, delusional fanbases, think they’re elite when they’re essentially on par with like Wisconsin and Penn State, don’t realize it’s been decades since they won anything of any significance, constantly getting pulverized in bowl games against legitimate programs and yet their fans still not getting the message through their thick skulls that they are not anywhere near as good or respectable as they think they are.
Notre Dame is 0-8 in major bowl games (CFP, NY6 or BCS) since 2000, losing by an average score of 37-17. In those major bowl games, they have played Alabama twice, Ohio State twice, Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma State and Oregon State, and they’ve really not been competitive in any of them except for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma State, which they only lost 37-35.
Incidentally, that was Marcus Freeman’s first game as head coach of Notre Dame. Brian Kelly took the LSU job after the season, Freeman was promoted to interim head coach, and then they hired him on full time several months later. Maybe it means something that Marcus Freeman got them as close as they’ve ever gotten to winning a Major Bowl game since 2000, or maybe it was just that Oklahoma State was closer to their level that year than the years they had to play Bama, Clemson and Ohio State.
I don’t know. But Notre Dame just loses these games all the time. It’s a tradition. Notre Dame played Georgia in a home and away in 2017 and 2019—they lost both times. They came close to beating Georgia, but they lost. The only time they beat a top-ranked team was in 2020 when they beat Clemson in double overtime at home—and it was a game that Trevor Lawrence didn’t even play because he got Covid.
Other than that one fluke game, they are consistently losing to big time programs like Bama, Georgia and Ohio State. Constantly getting slapped around.
But for some reason, I feel like this is when they finally get over the hump. I think they beat Ohio State this weekend. It just feels like there’s something different about this Notre Dame team, and that something is Sam Hartman.
Look, Hartman has late round NFL draft grades—it’s why he’s been in college for 6 years rather than declare for the draft. He’s had three chances to declare for the draft and he hasn’t—there’s a reason for that. He’s a bit on the shorter side at 6’1”, not overly athletic but can move in the pocket, doesn’t have elite throwing power but can still push it down field. There’s a lot to like even if he may not be exactly what the NFL is looking for.
The main thing I see with him is poise in the pocket, patience, and making good decisions. He’s not one of those gunslingers who is going to produce a lot of “Wow” throws, but he’s also not going to make a lot of mistakes. If you go watch his Clemson game from last season, you’ll tremendous accuracy and ball placement. In fact, it wasn’t just the Clemson game—he had a lot of impressive throws into tight windows all throughout last season. It made me wonder how the guy could have a career 59.8% completion rate, although he was up to 63.1% last year and is at 71% this year with Notre Dame. Probably has a lot to do with his protection and pass catchers, I’d assume.
Overall, I view him as a guy who can unlock Notre Dame’s true potential as a football program. Because Notre Dame has always had talent, but they’ve always had MID at quarterback and it’s held them down. I mean, gosh, Notre Dame is tied for 6th among all college programs in terms of players on NFL rosters with 37—they’re tied with Clemson. They send a lot of guys to the league, I just think they’ve been held back by the quarterback position. (Which is why I thought it was a bit strange that Brian Kelly left Notre Dame for the supposed greener pastures of LSU. He supposedly felt like he’d hit his ceiling at Notre Dame, but tell me when the guy ever went out and got a legit NFL arm to play quarterback there?)
If I was more comfortable in Ohio State’s quarterback situation, I would take Ohio State to win by 14+. But I’m still not confident in Ohio State’s quarterback situation. I am not fully sold on Kyle McCord. I think the moment is going to be too big for him and he’s going to come up short here. I just don’t get those “I’M HIM” vibes from Kyle McCord. I don’t see that swagger, that juice. I didn’t really see that in CJ Stroud, to be fair, but CJ Stroud showed it more in the throws he would make rather than how he acted and carried himself. CJ Stroud would attempt some throws that just made it clear the dude had supreme confidence in his ball placement and he knew he was absolutely HIM when it came to accuracy.
It might be unfair to judge McCord after just three games—and three games in which he has progressively improved each week. But I’m not saying he’s a bust or he’s not good—I just think this is too big a game too soon for him. I don’t think he’s ready for it yet.
I think it’s going to be a pretty close game but Sam Hartman will be the difference in the 4th quarter against the far less experienced McCord.
I think Ohio State’s defense is much improved, so their best hope here is that their defense holds Notre Dame to like 17-20 points and thus Kyle McCord doesn’t have to go out there and throw for 380 yards.
Now, the one area where I think Notre Dame might run into some trouble is the fact that Sam Hartman isn’t the most mobile quarterback. He can move around in the pocket, but he’s not going to beat you with his legs. It’s the mobile quarterbacks that have tended to give Ohio State issues in the past–McCarthy at Michigan, Stetson Bennett at Georgia. It’s really, really difficult to beat Ohio State with a pure passing quarterback who isn’t out there running for extra yards and extending drives, and if I was going to backtrack on my prediction of Notre Dame winning, it would be for this reason. When you run a ball-control style offense to keep Ohio State’s offense off the field, you need to pick up first downs by hook or by crook, and that’s where running quarterbacks are such a blessing: they keep drives alive on third down plays when the receivers are covered or the pocket breaks down quickly.
Ohio State is going to bring pressure at the middle of that ND offensive line, because Ohio State has some great pass-rushing interior D-Linemen, and because Notre Dame has some really great tackles. That’s going to force Hartman out of the pocket, and if he can’t scramble, it’ll be really tough for Notre Dame to win.
I just want to say a few things about the Ohio State defense here quickly. Going into that Western Kentucky game, I thought Ohio State was going to have some real issues. I thought they’d still win the game, because Western Kentucky wouldn’t be able to stop the Ohio State offense at all, but I thought Ohio State would win it like 56-31 or something like that.
So many times over the past few years Ohio State’s secondary has just been absolutely scorched—blowing coverages, giving up huge plays, having to resort to DPI because they can’t cover anybody. I’ve just seen so many Ohio State games the past 3 years where the other team’s offense was a guaranteed touchdown against their defense and basically it was a field day out there.
And I thought Western Kentucky, given their highly prolific pass attack, would be able to score a lot of points on the Ohio State defense.
So it is encouraging that Ohio State was able to basically shut down that Western Kentucky passing game. Yes, I know they were a heavily outmatched group of five team, but WKU can really sling it, and I thought they’d be able to throw it on Ohio State. Last year’s Ohio State team would’ve given up 300+ in the air to WKU.
It does look like that Ohio State defense has a little something different to them this year. They rank #2 in the nation in defensive yards per play allowed at 3.6, behind only Air Force at 3.5 YPP allowed. They haven’t played anybody real but neither has Notre Dame (and Notre Dame is at 3.8 YPP allowed, which is 3rd in the nation right behind Ohio State).
Ohio State’s defense looked decent last year (at least compared to 2021’s defense) but conventional wisdom is that it all started to unravel towards the end of the season—first the Maryland game, then the complete secondary implosion that cost them the Michigan game, and then the same thing happened against Georgia that caused them to choke away a 14 point 4th quarter lead, and almost certainly the National Title.
But there were also cracks that showed starting early in the season if you looked closely. They let up some big plays against Notre Dame, they were getting cooked a bit against Toledo’s Dequan Finn (a really good and underrated G5 quarterback), even Arkansas State was moving the ball decently well on them. They also let up 371 passing yards to Penn State’s Sean Clifford, nobody’s idea of a prolific passer.
I know Ohio State hasn’t played any legit teams but my point here is that even against the weaker teams last year there were some red flags for that Ohio State pass defense. We have not really seen that this year, and if any were going to show, it would’ve been against a high-flying team like Western Kentucky. Like I said above, last year’s Ohio State defense would’ve let up 300+ passing yards against WKU (and 2021’s defense would’ve probably given up 450+ total yards to them). This is why I think the Ohio State defense is different this year even though they haven’t played anybody–last year’s defense, even against cupcakes, was still suspect on many occasions.
I do think the Ohio State defense should be able to keep the game close. And I do think the superior playmakers on that Ohio State offense—Marvin Harrison, Emeka Egbuka, Treyveon Henderson, Chip Trayanum, Cade Stover, etc.—should be able to elevate their quarterback and make him look better than he actually is.
Look, Ohio State can win this game. They’re the more talented team, and if they can dominate the line of scrimmage, they probably win the game pretty easily. But I think Notre Dame is pretty tough on both sides of the ball up front, and they have a quarterback who has looked pretty big time thus far in the season.
I’m going to take Notre Dame to win 26-21. I don’t think Kyle McCord will be able to deliver consistently in this game, and I’m also a bit worried about Ohio State’s offensive line when it comes to run blocking, too. And to me that’s a recipe for disaster—if Ohio State can’t run the ball effectively, it just puts more pressure on McCord to air it out, and I don’t think he’s capable of that against a team like Notre Dame. I just don’t. I think McCord will turn the ball over at least once or twice, and that will make it really difficult for Ohio State to win this game.
It just feels like this is the time that Notre Dame finally gets Ohio State. Notre Dame hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 1936. They’ve actually only played 7 times, and the first two matchups were in 1935 and 1936, both won by Notre Dame. Then they didn’t play one another until 1995, which Ohio State won 45-26. Ohio State then won again 29-16 in 1996. They met up in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl and Ohio State won 34-20, then again in the 2015 Fiesta Bowl, a 44-28 Ohio State win. Then you had last year’s 21-10 Ohio State win in Columbus.
This just feels like the time for Notre Dame. Marcus Freeman is so thirsty for a win over his alma mater and I think he gets one here.
The only thing that gives me some pause here is, I think Ohio State may have been running vanilla offense and defense for the first three games of the season—at least the first two. I don’t think they’ve fully let it rip yet—at least offensively. There is an element of not wanting to put things on tape so you can surprise Notre Dame with some stuff you haven’t showed yet, and I think that’s a real thing. Before the WKU game, Ryan Day said something about how this team was about to take the next step and really start to open things up, alluding to the fact that they really hadn’t done so in their first two games by design.
It wouldn’t shock me If this was the case. Texas kind of did it this year: they looked very vanilla and uninspired against Rice in week 1, then in week 2 in the Bama game, Sark opened up the full playbook and let her rip. Texas looked significantly more dynamic against Alabama than they did against Rice, and it was by design.
It’s possible that Ohio State is doing something similar. I believe they used the first three weeks of the season as a “preseason” to get things calibrated and straightened out, and this week against Notre Dame is the true start to their season. It was all just a warm-up for this game.
So perhaps we’ll see an even more dynamic and impressive Ohio State team now that they have to play a worthy opponent. Again, it wouldn’t shock me if this happens. Teams do this all the time.
But I’m not going to predict Ohio State to win just based on this assumption that they will be a significantly better team and they’re playing 4D chess here. I’m judging these two teams based on what we’ve seen out of them this season, and I just think Notre Dame has been more consistently impressive.
Fade the Public 