Before we get into the upcoming games, I wanted to share my power ratings. I compiled them for the first time this year after Week 4, but didn’t get around to publishing my Week 4 recap article. So here’s my Top 50 teams after 5 weeks:
These rankings are based purely off of stats, not wins and losses. They’re designed to be able to predict scoring margins between teams by just subtracting the power rank number of the lower team from that of the higher team.
Using these rankings to bet on spreads of some of the biggest games, you’d be 11-5 right now including the Wednesday and Thursday games from this week:
And my picks for the Friday and Saturday games are as follows:
We’ll check back in next week to see how I fared. Also keep in mind the power ratings are going to be more reliable as the season goes on and we have larger and larger sample sizes to evaluate these teams off of.
Quick hits:
- How is LSU still ranked at 3-2 with their best win being over Mississippi State and barely beating Arkansas a week ago? Their defense was horrendous against an Ole Miss team that Bama completely suffocated.
- Maryland is 5-0 and unranked. They have no real quality wins, and they’ve played 5 horrible teams in Towson, Charlotte, UVA, Michigan State and Indiana, but they should at least be in the 23-25 range I’d think. A 5-0 Big Ten team should be ranked.
- Texas A&M should be ranked, if only to add a bit more intrigue to this matchup with Alabama. More on that game later but A&M grades out really well statistically, and my power ratings have them 3rd in the nation. I don’t think they’re the third best team in the country, but I don’t think they should have been written off after that loss to Miami in week 2, because Miami is actually a really good team (power ratings have them 6th).
- Penn State has some real issues. I’m not going to say they’re frauds, but Penn State is not a great team right now. The final score of 41-13 over Northwestern looks impressive, but that game was tied at halftime. Penn State looked horrible in the first half. I really have not been impressed by them, and I think their defensive numbers are inflated because they’ve played two of the absolute worst offenses in the country: Northwestern ranks 125th in yards per play, Iowa ranks 131st.
- Everything Michigan fans on social media tell you about their team is a lie. Whenever you see somebody with this 〽️ emoji in their names, you know you’re about to get hit with some of the most ridiculous, delusional fan takes you’ve ever seen. I feel like Michigan has the least realistic fanbase in the country. Completely out of touch with reality. A lot of fanbases are like doom and gloom, super pessimistic, only focus on the negatives (Georgia and Ohio State fans come to mind), but Michigan fans are the complete opposite. They are gassing up wins over horrible teams, acting like their team isn’t 1-6 in bowl games under Jim Harbaugh–it’s crazy.
- They are not a National Championship team, JJ McCarthy isn’t an NFL quarterback at all, and their offense is a complete gimmick. It’s the most college-style offense I’ve ever seen. Blake Corum is not special, he just runs a ton behind 8 man offensive lines. And they’ve played the weakest schedule in America for three years running. I honestly cannot believe Ohio State lost to them last year. The same Ohio State team that was a field goal away from beating Georgia and winning the National Championship somehow lost to Michigan. Blows my mind.
- I think Michigan fans really believe they won the National Championship for beating Ohio State the past two years. In their minds, they are the back to back National Champs, not Georgia. That’s the only explanation I can think of. And as for believing JJ McCarthy is an NFL quarterback, I think it’s just the fact that they’ve had MID at quarterback for so long that when they finally get a quarterback that is above that level, they think he’s a combination of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes or something. Watch the All-22 footage of McCarthy–he is not an NFL quarterback at all.
- Oregon has been beating the tar out everybody they play. Well, almost everybody. I just can’t get that game against Texas Tech out of my mind. I’m almost wondering if nobody watched it or what? It was on late at night on FS1 or something, I think it was during the Bama-Texas game or perhaps on afterwards? Oregon was so close to losing. It went down to the last couple of minutes. And nobody ever talks about it. It’s like it never happened.
- The CFP committee might well just say “Screw it, we’re moving to the 12 team playoff this season” once we get to late November. You’ve got 3 teams in the Pac 12, 2 teams in the Big 12, 2 teams in the SEC, 3 teams in the Big Ten, Florida State in the ACC–plus Notre Dame–that all look, right now, worthy of a shot to play for a National Championship. I know a lot will be sorted out between now and the end of the regular season, but damn, it feels like the 12 team playoff was built for this season exactly.
USC-Colorado Recap
USC’s defense has not improved. They are still terrible on defense. They were up 34-7 on Colorado and then 41-14 and still had to hang on for a 48-41 win. How did they allow 193 rushing yards to a Colorado team that couldn’t run the ball on anybody?
I just want to point out that not only had Colorado not recorded over 100 rushing yards against any of their first four opponents, they had only broken the 2 yards per rush attempt mark in one of their first four games: 2.8 YPC against Colorado State. Every other team they played—TCU, Nebraska and Oregon—held them under 2 yards a carry. Their season high in rush yards prior to playing USC was 70 yards against Colorado State: 25 carries for 70 yards.
Against USC Colorado had 45 carries for 193 yards, 4.3 yards per carry. And this is a game where Colorado was down 41-14, so you wouldn’t expect them to be running the ball much.
USC’s defense gets a lot of sacks and TFLs, but that’s about it. This is not a national championship defense or probably even a PAC 12 championship level defense. Can you imagine how badly they’ll get lit up by Oregon and Washington?
USC didn’t have to play either of those teams last year so we have no prior data on how the Lincoln Riley/Alex Grinch defense can hold up against an elite level PAC 12 offense. I think it’s gonna be bad. I don’t see how USC gets stops against those teams, who are way better on offense than Colorado (and Colorado is a decent offense at least with passing the ball).
I hate to get too condemnatory here but Lincoln Riley just isn’t the guy to bring USC back. He’s improved their offense significantly and they’re maybe the best offense in the country. But you cannot win a championship unless you play some real defense.
That Arizona State team that was competitive into the 4th quarter with USC: they’re now 1-4 and are clearly horrible. The week before they played USC they got blanked 29-0 by Fresno State. USC let up 28 points to them.
Lincoln Riley will bring the offensive fireworks and produce Heisman-caliber quarterback seasons, but your ceiling with him is limited because he simply doesn’t do defense. I’m not saying you need to be top-5 in both offense and defense to win a National Championship, but if you’re top-5 in one, you pretty much have to be at least top-15/20 in the other. Lincoln Riley has never even come close to fielding a top-15/20 defense in his coaching career.
Over his 7 year coaching career (including this season), Lincoln Riley’s teams between OU and USC have allowed an average of 5.8 yards per play, and averaged a national finish of 74th in the country. That is terrible. This year they are allowing 5.5 yards a play and are 65th in the nation. The highest a Lincoln Riley defense has ever ranked in YPP allowed is 26th, 5.2 yards per play, and that was in 2020.
Everything that Ryan Day is accused of being–soft, finesse, offense-only, not physical, all flash no substance, etc.–Lincoln Riley is guilty of. Lincoln Riley is the guy that everyone thinks Ryan Day is.
USC will be fun and great on offense under Lincoln Riley, but they’re not winning a National Championship. They just aren’t. He is not the guy to bring USC back to the mountaintop. Pete Carroll’s USC teams from the 2000s are remembered for their offensive stars like Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart and Carson Palmer, but those teams had some great defenses. They were elite on both sides of the ball.
When I think about USC under Lincoln Riley vs. USC under Pete Carroll, it just doesn’t even compare. Nobody fears USC under Lincoln Riley the way they did when Pete Carroll was coaching the Trojans. USC in the 2000s was like Alabama–they pretty much always won their bowl games, always destroyed non-conference opponents; they were the real deal.
Lincoln Riley is just not capable of bringing USC back to its former glory. He can get them decently close, and I think he already has, but the guy just doesn’t do defense and so there’s a hard ceiling on his program. There is a next step for this program to take before they can truly be counted among the elite programs in the country, and I don’t think Lincoln Riley is capable of making it. He just isn’t that guy.
This is probably going to come back and bite me in the ass if and when USC beats Oregon but I look at a guy like Dan Lanning up there in Eugene, he’s got a balanced squad that gets it done on both sides of the ball: 3rd in the country in yards per play allowed at just 4.0, 4th in the country in offensive yards per play at 8.1. You watch Lanning’s pregame speech to his team before the Colorado game and the guy just has juice, he’s got some bass in his voice, he’s coached in the SEC–I just think he’s got something that Lincoln Riley doesn’t. I just can’t picture Lincoln Riley giving a pregame pump-up speech to his team without his voice cracking or something.
I didn’t mean to get personal but that’s just the way I see Lincoln Riley. And I’m disappointed that USC still does not have a defense. USC was great when I was a kid first starting to watch college football–there was a mystique around them, like they were just on a whole different level than everybody else. Their players were all famous and friends with celebrities, they blew everybody out–USC when Pete Carroll was coaching was the place to be in college football. They were the coolest program in America, and I think college football is great when USC is like that. I’m not sure if USC can ever get back to that status, because back then, LA had no NFL teams, so USC was the only real football happening there. Now LA has two teams.
I want USC to be both elite and cool again, but I don’t see Lincoln Riley as the guy to get them there.
I don’t think he’s a Championship-level head coach. I think he’s a brilliant offensive mind, play-caller, and QB developer, but there are other pieces to the puzzle that are just missing with him.
Anyway, USC hosts Arizona this week, which should be a win, but I’ll still be interested to see how many points they let Arizona score, and how far into the second half it’s still a competitive game. Arizona is actually pretty decent on offense, 30th in the country averaging 6.6 yards per play. So I think they’ll be able to score some points on that USC defense.
Then, the week after that, it’s off to Notre Dame. That’ll be an interesting game because USC and Notre Dame play such different styles of football. Notre Dame will try to play a ball control game to keep Caleb Williams on the sideline, but that Irish defense is legit. My gut tells me they will not be able to score enough to keep pace with USC, but everybody scores on that USC defense so who knows.
Ohio State-Maryland
I’m including this game even though it’s not a ranked matchup. It’s still a battle of unbeatens and Maryland is probably the 4th best team in the Big Ten right now, although considerably behind the top 3 of Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State (in whichever order you prefer). Wisconsin might be better than Maryland, but Wisconsin also has a loss on their resume and Maryland doesn’t, so for now we’ll give Maryland the edge of Wisco.
I won’t spend too much time on this game because Ohio State is at home and favored pretty significantly, but it’s worth noting that when these teams played last year in Maryland, it was close. Ohio State won 43-30, but they had a late pick six with just seconds left on the clock. Maryland had the ball deep in their own territory late in the game down 36-30. And Maryland was just cooking that suspect Ohio State secondary all game long. Maryland wasn’t able to run the ball but Taulia Tagovailoa was able to throw for 318 yards on 8.6 yards per attempt with 2 TDs and no picks.
Ohio State’s secondary is vastly improved from last year, however they don’t sack the quarterback very often so I think Taulia will have time to throw. Advanced analytics say that Ohio State is one of the best teams at pressuring the quarterback, just not sacking the quarterback. I’m not sure how much I buy into that, but the bottom line is that this will be a major test for the Ohio State defense. Are they for real or not?
I thought Notre Dame would be a big test for the Ohio State secondary but Notre Dame didn’t really ever try to take shots. It was a lot of over the middle stuff to really pick on those Ohio State linebackers, who did not play well at all against Notre Dame. Lots of stuff to the tight end rather than the wide receivers.
I think Maryland probably has better receivers than Notre Dame, and I would say they’ve got a better quarterback but Sam Hartman is a good quarterback. Notre Dame just didn’t let him air it out at all.
Maryland will probably take some shots to see how improved those Ohio State corners really are, because Maryland knows they were able to cook them quite a bit last year. I doubt Maryland will play it like Notre Dame and not even try to go at the secondary.
The thing is, though, while Maryland is known as a prolific passing offense, they aren’t really efficient throwing the ball. I was kind of surprised to find out they’re the 41st ranked offense in passing yards per attempt.
Ohio State’s defense is basically elite in every measurable category, and their offense ranks a lot higher than I thought it would, although it’s nowhere near where it was the past few years. Ohio State is normally a top-3 offense in the country if not the very best, and this year they rank about 16th in yards per play, which is still really good, but it just feels low because last year they were #1 nationally.
The thing about this game is, Maryland has played an absolute joke of a schedule. Towson, Charlotte, UVA (a team on an 8-game losing streak, yikes), Michigan State (just a completely cooked program after the whole Mel Tucker ordeal), and Indiana. Indiana has an okay defense, but they can’t do a thing offensively.
Maryland has played the 122nd ranked schedule out of 133 teams. It doesn’t get much easier than that. This is a big reason why Maryland’s stats are so good, particularly defensively because I don’t really think they have much of a defense.
So while I do think Maryland is a pretty good team, I think it’s also fair to point out how soft their schedule has been. They are really going to have to ramp it up to prepare to play Ohio State.
I don’t think they’ll be able to get many stops on the Ohio State offense, personally. I think you will see Ohio State take another step offensively as they continue to break in Kyle McCord at quarterback. The line for this one was Ohio State -17.5, it’s now up to Ohio State -20.
Ohio State fans are a bit anxious about Kyle McCord even after his huge game-winning drive against Notre Dame a couple of weeks ago. They feel like he’s just not on the same level as a passer as CJ Stroud was or Justin Fields, and while that’s probably the case (especially considering how well Stroud is doing in the NFL), I think you’ve got to give the kid some time. You compare his experience to the other top quarterbacks in college football, a lot of the guys he’s being compared to are 5th and even 6th year players:
So cut the kid a break and have some faith in Ryan Day. I’ve got Ohio State winning 41-17.
Georgia-Kentucky
Georgia should not be #1 anymore. Texas should be #1, Michigan should be #2 and then Georgia should be #3. However, I’d be cool with Georgia at #2 and Michigan at #3 just because while neither of them have played anybody legit, Georgia’s schedule has probably been slightly tougher.
Honestly, I’d even be cool with Oregon at #3, Ohio State at #4 and then Georgia all the way down to #5. I just don’t think Georgia has been super impressive against Power Five opponents. They were dominant in the second half against South Carolina, but they didn’t even show up in the first half.
Against Auburn, they really had to lean on Brock Bowers in that second half. Bowers reminded everyone who the best tight end in America, and the 2024 NFL Draft, is with his performance, so hats off to him for really stepping up and putting the team on his back: 8 catches, 157 yards and the game-winning touchdown on a long 40-yarder. They would not have won that game without him going crazy.
Now Georgia hosts Kentucky this Saturday night. We thought Georgia would breeze through their schedule this season until maybe the Tennessee game, but they’ve already been challenged twice so far through 5 weeks by teams we really didn’t expect to give them trouble (South Carolina and Auburn).
So it seems wise to not overlook Kentucky and just assume Georgia will win easily. And not only because of what happened against South Carolina and Auburn, but also because of how closely Kentucky played Georgia in last year’s game.
Georgia won 16-6 over Kentucky last season in Lexington, and while the score looks close, Georgia was up 16-0 going into the 4th quarter. There was never a moment in the second half of that game where Kentucky was within a score, so Georgia was never truly at risk of losing the game, but they also never really pulled away and got the score to a point where they could relax.
Kentucky just plays that ball control style–they slow the game down, try to control the clock with the run game, and keep the ball out of your offense’s hands. In last year’s game, Georgia only got 8 possessions, and that’s exactly what Kentucky wants. They know they can’t score 30 on Georgia. But if they can hold Georgia to 20 or less, then they feel like they might be able to win that game. One turnover really changes the whole complexion of a game like that–or maybe a running back gets a crease, the Georgia secondary busts a coverage, and Kentucky is able to steal some points.
Slowing the game down and limiting your opponent’s possessions just decreases their margin for error. They’ve got to come up with points on every drive because drives are few and far between.
With the new clock rules this season, which basically shorten the games and decrease the number of possessions each team gets, it plays even more into Kentucky’s bleed the clock style.
What also plays into Kentucky’s hand is the fact that Georgia has not been great against the run this year. Much worse than last year, actually. Georgia is allowing 4 yards per carry right now, which is 67th in the country. Needless to say, that is highly uncharacteristic of a Kirby Smart team–Georgia is always a brick wall against the run. Last year they were third best in the country against the run allowing just 2.9 yards per carry, in 2021 they were tied for 2nd in the nation at 2.6 yards per carry allowed, and in 2020 they were #1 in the nation against the run at 2.4 yards per carry allowed.
So for Georgia to be 67th in the country against the run, letting up 4 yards a carry, that’s a massive drop-off. Part of that can be attributed to the unusual number of injuries they’ve been dealing with this season, although they’re not limited to the defense.
What I think is a problem for Georgia is that they lost defensive tackle Bear Alexander to the transfer portal in the spring. He’s at USC now. I guess he claims he was promised a starting role and feels the coaching staff went back on their word, or something like that, so he said “I’m out.” Personally, I think that’s a bunch of nonsense. Coaches promise you a chance to compete, and nothing else. I can’t imagine Georgia is in the business of promising players starting jobs regardless of whether or not they actually earn it. Maybe Bear Alexander heard what he wanted to hear, I’m not sure. But I seriously doubt Kirby Smart is the kind of coach who promises somebody a starting spot no matter what without earning it.
But the real issue here is that Georgia, in the past two seasons, had their defense anchored by absolute game-wrecker nose tackles. In 2021 it was Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt in the middle of that defensive line, and last year it was Jalen Carter, who right now already looks like one of the best D-tackles in the NFL.
I think Georgia was expecting Bear Alexander to step in and be the next one up in that line of big time nose tackles, but he’s out. And now they don’t have a ton of depth on that defensive line. They’re really missing Bear Alexander. Naz Stackhouse is pretty good, but he’s not a generational guy, and I think Bear was supposed to be a generational guy.
The 219 yards they allowed to Auburn on the ground was a bit misleading because most of those yards were from quarterback runs: Payton Throne and Robby Ashford had 16 carries for 125 yards combined (7.8 yards a carry), while the running backs had 27 carries for 94 yards (3.5 yards a carry). It’s not like Auburn was just lining up and steamrolling their way up and down the field running between the tackles and blowing the Georgia defense off the ball. But still, Georgia never let up 219 rushing yards last season–in fact nobody ever even got close to that against them. Oregon ran for 140 but most of those yards came after Georgia was already up 35-40 points. Then Ohio State ran for 119 in the Peach Bowl but that was on 32 carries. Other than that, only 4 teams even hit 100 yards on Georgia last year in 15 games.
In 2021, same situation: only 4 teams went for over 100 on Georgia running the ball.
Shit, Georgia hasn’t let up 200+ rushing yards in a game since 2018, when they got blown out by LSU 36-16. LSU ran it for 275 on them.
So even if it was the quarterbacks running, it is a big deal that Georgia let up 200+ to Auburn. That’s not something that happens very often, and it’s not like they’ve never gone up against a running quarterback. I’m not saying it’s cooked for Georgia and that they have no shot this year, but it should turn some heads that this is the first time in 5 years they let somebody run for 200+ on them.
And Kentucky does have a legit running back in Ray Davis. Ask Florida about him. The dude had 26 carries for 280 yards, 10.8 yards a carry, 3 rushing TDs, plus a 9 yard receiving touchdown. Florida was supposed to be legit against the run, too. Nobody had run for more than 3.5 yards a carry on them all season, and they’ve played teams like Utah and Tennessee already. Then Ray Davis just went crazy on them.
Georgia is going to have their hands full with this guy, for sure. It is Georgia, though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Kirby Smart retools some things in that front seven to shore up the run defense. But if we’re just going off of recent history, it sure looks like Ray Davis is primed to have a big night.
Let’s dive into the matchups real quickly because I don’t want to spend a ton of time on this game. Spoiler alert: I’m picking Georgia to win.
Unless Ray Davis goes off again for 250+, I don’t see how Kentucky wins this game.
But I wanted to highlight a few numbers:
There are some real mismatches here, most notably Kentucky being the 6th ranked rush defense and Georgia being the 60th ranked rushing offense. Next up: Georgia has the 3rd best pass defense while Kentucky is 57th in passing yards per attempt. And then of course Kentucky is the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the nation while Georgia is a startlingly low 67th in the country against the run.
So Kentucky will try to pound the run, Georgia will probably have to rely on the pass because that’s the weakness of Kentucky’s defense. And Georgia doesn’t really run too well, either.
I’m expecting another big game from Brock Bowers here. If Georgia can’t run the ball–and it sure looks like they’ll have some trouble–then they’re going to put this game on Brock Bowers’ shoulders.
It’s crazy to talk about Georgia being a one-dimensional team on both sides of the ball, but that’s kind of where we’re at right now.
Still, though, I just can’t see them losing a game like this. On the rare occasions that Georgia loses, it’s because they run into an NFL quarterback that just shreds them through the air, and Kentucky is not a team that can–or even tries–to do that to you.
However, I don’t think Georgia covers the 15 point spread. That’s a lot of points for a team that has yet to cover the spread once all season facing their toughest test to date.
Give me Georgia 24, Kentucky 13.
Texas-Oklahoma Outlook
The Texas-Oklahoma rivalry is BACK in full effect.
Hopefully.
You already know I think Texas is the best team in the country, and while Oklahoma is ranked 12th and we don’t get this to be a top-10 matchup, my power ratings really like Oklahoma and have them ranked 5th (Texas is #2) despite the fact that they haven’t played anybody legit. Their best win is a 20-6 road win over a Cincinnati team that has now lost three straight (including the loss to Oklahoma, and also including a loss to Miami Ohio).
We have not had Texas/OU be a top-10 matchup since 2008, believe it or not. That was the year Texas got screwed because they beat Oklahoma 45-35, but then later lost to Texas Tech when they were at the peak of their powers under Mike Leach. Oklahoma destroyed Texas Tech 65-21, and it was a three-way tiebreaker for the Big 12 South Division, which resulted in Oklahoma getting the nod because they were the highest in the BCS rankings. Oklahoma would go on to win the Big 12 and then lose the National Championship game to the infamous 2008 Florida Gators.
I thought Texas got screwed and was the best team in the Big 12 that year, but the real problem was that only 2 teams got a chance to play for the National Championship under the BCS system. If the playoff was in place back in 2008, it would’ve been Florida, Oklahoma, Texas and then either Alabama (who had just lost to Florida in the SEC Championship game but was 12-1), 11-1 Pac 12 Champion USC, or 12-0 Utah. It probably would’ve been USC getting the nod since they beat Ohio State 35-3 earlier in the season, and Ohio State would ultimately finish the season ranked in the top-10. A Florida, Oklahoma, Texas and USC playoff field would have been amazing, but alas.
Anyway, this is the first year since 2011 where both teams come into the game undefeated, if you can believe that. The game is usually played in early October, so it really shouldn’t be that big of a thing for both teams to be undefeated–it’s only 5-6 games into the season, not like the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry or the Alabama-Auburn rivalry which are always the last game of the regular season. It just speaks to the fact that Texas has been down for a long time. Oklahoma was undefeated going into the 2021, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2013 and 2011 rivalry games, while Texas hasn’t been undefeated going into the game since 2011.
So this is the first time Texas has been either 5-0 or 6-0 since 2011. Texas has had some rough sledding dating back to 2010, while Oklahoma has been pretty good over that span.
Now it appears both teams are pretty damn good, although there are some question marks about how legitimate Oklahoma actually is.
Oklahoma was down pretty bad last season, going just 6-7 in Brent Venables’ first season as head coach. He definitely stepped into a mess in the wake of Lincoln Riley’s sudden departure for USC. Oklahoma lost a whopping 37 players from the 2021 squad to either the NFL draft, graduation or the transfer portal, most notably the quarterback that would go on to win the Heisman Trophy last season after following Lincoln Riley to USC, Caleb Williams. Spencer Rattler also transferred out.
It was a very rocky start for Venables. There was a three game losing streak which included a 55-24 loss to a TCU team that was then unranked, but which we later realized was pretty good. Then there was the 49-0 loss to Texas in the rivalry game, which was the point that the national audience stopped paying attention to Oklahoma and maybe even wrote off the entire Brent Venables tenure as doomed from the start.
Oklahoma did bounce back to win 2 games in a row, however they would finish out the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. They lost 38-35 to Baylor, 23-20 to West Virginia, 51-48 to Texas Tech, and then 35-32 to Florida State in the Cheez-It Bowl. All four of those losses were by just 3 points, and that’s typically something we see in the first year of a head coach’s tenure: losing a lot of close games.
Typically, year 2 of the new coach’s tenure sees a marked improvement across the board towards national contender status, and it appears that’s what we’re seeing now at Oklahoma. Of course they haven’t played anybody good, but they are taking care of business the way they’re supposed to. Statistically, Oklahoma grades out quite well, particularly in the throw game, ranking 2nd in the nation in net points per game, 5th in net passing yards per attempt, 2nd in net completion percentage. They also rank 7th in net first downs, 9th in net red zone touchdown rate, 3rd in net 3rd down conversion percentage, 9th in net tackles for loss, and 17th in net plays of 10+ yards.
The most important stat in my view, net yards per play, Oklahoma ranks 12th in the country, which is a bit low when you’re talking about the elite teams in the country, but 6.9 yards per play on offense (19th in the country) is still pretty damn good. The typical National Championship team in the CFP era averages about 7.0 yards per play on offense, and allows about 4.6 on defense, for a net yards per play average of around 2.4–that’s what I’m looking for when trying to figure out which teams are contenders and which teams are pretenders.
Oklahoma is actually averaging about 4.6 yards per play allowed on defense (19th best), which puts them at +2.3 net yards per play on the year. So that’s right in the wheelhouse for a National Title contending team, the only problem is they have to prove they can do it over a full season and against legitimate competition. Right now, Oklahoma ranks 82nd in the country in strength of schedule. At this point in the season, when most teams’ schedules have been cupcake games, we’ve got a handful of teams that are averaging over +3.0 net yards per play, and Oregon is even averaging +4.1. So while +2.3 is good, if you’re a true national contender playing against a cupcake schedule, you should be doing even better.
I’m kind of nitpicking here because Oklahoma ranks 5th overall in my power ratings. They hold up quite well in most categories, the only area I really have a concern about them is in the run game. They’re pretty good at stopping the run, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry which is about what you want to see for a National Title contender. Anything under 3.0 yards per carry is outstanding, and in a given year there will typically only be a handful of teams in the country allowing less than 3 yards per carry–that’s Georgia, Alabama and Iowa territory. Oklahoma being strong against the run is expected for a Venables team, because his expertise is defense, but again we’d like to see them do it against legit competition before we can say they have a Championship-level run defense.
But where I’m most concerned is Oklahoma’s rushing offense. They only average 4.0 yards a carry on offense, which ranks 87th in the country. Despite the soft schedule they have not run the ball well. I’d like to see definitely upwards of 5 yards per carry, which would put you around 30th in the country (exactly where Texas is), but honestly, for a schedule like Oklahoma has played, I’d need to see 5.5+ yards per carry. Oregon is averaging 7.1 yards per carry, just insane. USC and Miami are averaging over 6.0.
So this is a major area of concern for me when it comes to Oklahoma, as rush yards per carry on both offense and defense are very important to me because of what they signify. If you have a high rush yards per carry average, it means your offensive line is great and typically dominates the line of scrimmage and is blowing defenses off the ball. If your defense allows a yards per carry figure in the low 3s or the high 2s, it means your defensive line is dominating the line of scrimmage. Controlling the line of scrimmage is crucially important in college football, and the best way to measure that is in net rush yards per carry.
For Oklahoma to only be averaging 4.1 yards per carry tells me that their offensive line is not dominating up front, and that’s a major red flag especially going up against a team like Texas that has really good line play.
Oklahoma is already going to be playing at a disadvantage at the quarterback position against Texas. Dillon Gabriel has been good, but I don’t think he’s on Quinn Ewers’ level, which means Oklahoma needs to be able to run the ball to keep pace in this game, and I just don’t have any confidence they’ll be able to do that.
This game is the real test for Oklahoma. I’m not expecting them to win, but if they can keep it close it will be highly encouraging for them going forward and a sign that things are heading in the right direction under Venables. We know Texas is legit. They might be the best team in the country, so if Oklahoma can stay in this game and be competitive for four quarters, that’s a good sign going forward.
But, according to Vegas, they have a chance to win this game. Vegas only has Texas favored by 5. My power ratings only have Texas favored by 3.6, so maybe Oklahoma will surprise us. I’m skeptical because, again, that rushing offense of theirs, and the fact that they haven’t played anybody, and the fact that we just don’t know if Brent Venables is a Big Time College Football Coach. I’m guessing the case for Oklahoma is that at the very least, Venables will have that defense ready to compete and that should keep the game somewhat close, but it’s also hard to get the image of 49-0 out of my mind.
Typically these Red River “Showdown” games are Shootouts (why can’t they still call it the Red River Shootout? It’s so lame that they don’t): the average point total of a Texas-OU game dating back to 2000 is 59.3, and if we look at it since 2010, it’s over 66 points a game combined. There are some outliers–and I feel like this year might be one of them, because Texas has a good defense, too–but for the most part these are high scoring, entertaining games.
I really hope this is a great game and that these two programs can be good at the same time for years to come, because this is one of the very best rivalries in college football. Just the whole atmosphere around it–the Texas state fair in Dallas, the fact that it’s played at the Cotton Bowl stadium, the way they split the crowd 50/50 and you have one side of the field in burnt orange and the other side in… whatever color Oklahoma is (dark red? Crimson? Crimson doesn’t sound right.) Attending this game and the Texas State Fair is definitely on my list, it just seems like it would be a blast.
Back in the 2000s, these were both top-10 programs, many years top-5, and this rivalry was cooking. It’s been so long since this rivalry was truly a heavyweight clash, but now I think we might be entering a new golden age of the rivalry, although it’s far too early to tell, especially with both programs moving to the SEC next season.
Still, though, this is only the fourth time in the past decade where this game has been a ranked matchup, so we can all appreciate that.
I’m taking Texas to win 31-22. I think if I were a betting man I’d probably go against my better judgment and take Oklahoma and the points, just because Texas -5 seems like such a smash play and I’m sure the public will be on that bet heavily, but I’m just not ready to trust Oklahoma yet after how badly they got demolished by Texas last season. For me the jury is still out on Oklahoma, and I’ll need to see some actual confirmation that they are legit before I start to believe in them. 49-0 is hard to get out of my mind.
If Texas gets through this game unbeaten, none of the remaining teams on their schedule are ranked, so they should be heavily favored in every game. Beat Oklahoma and you’ve got nothing but green grass ahead of you if you’re the Longhorns.
The same is also true of Oklahoma, though: they’ve got home vs. UCF (now a Big 12 team, weird), at Kansas, at Oklahoma State (they’re awful this year), home vs. West Virginia, at BYU (always a tough place to play), and home vs. TCU.
So whoever wins on Saturday is going to be not only overwhelmingly favored to win the Big 12, but to get to the playoffs undefeated and possibly secure the #1 overall seed. It’ll be harder for Oklahoma to get the #1 seed because they’re further down in the rankings, but if they go undefeated and win the Big 12 they’re absolutely making the playoff.
This is going to be a massive game on Saturday, and I’m so excited that this rivalry finally feels BIG and IMPORTANT again.
Also, from a football nerd perspective, we’ve got one of the best offensive minds in the game in Sark going up against one of the best defensive minds in Venables. I truly hope those guys give us a high-level chess match of a game–this year and for years to come. The yin/yang aspect of the two coaches and their coaching backgrounds is a great layer to add to an already rich and electric rivalry.
Bama at Texas A&M Outlook
Don’t look now but Alabama is in prime position to win the SEC West. Their convincing win over Ole Miss looks even better now that Ole Miss hung 55 on LSU (Bama held Ole Miss to 10 points).
This is not the same Bama squad that barely beat USF a few weeks ago. I still think Bama is a pretty flawed team but they are starting to put some things together. Then again, name me one team out there that isn’t flawed right now–there is no clear favorite. And at the end of the day, Bama has the most talented roster in the country, so they have that advantage over everybody.
With LSU seemingly out of the way (although they do only have one conference loss so they’re not dead in the SEC West by any means), and with Bama having already dispatched of Ole Miss a couple of weekends ago, the only remaining teams in the SEC West with unblemished conference records are Bama and Texas A&M.
The biggest threat to Bama in the SEC West is Texas A&M, and as it happens they play this weekend in College Station in the afternoon window on CBS. It’ll be right after the Red River SHOOTOUT.
Now, we’re all talking about this game like it’s some big time marquee matchup, circle it on the calendar, appointment TV, been looking forward to it all season long. I think it is, but somebody else might look at it and say, “#10 vs. an unranked team, what’s the big deal?”
And that’s fair. On the surface, it does look like a B-tier matchup between a couple of teams that have already lost and are probably already out of the playoff picture. I mean, as long as Texas and Georgia remain undefeated, Bama isn’t sniffing the playoff. And for A&M, while they’re tied with Bama in the SEC standings, they’re unranked and Bama is #10, so A&M needs to first surpass Alabama in order to get into the playoff picture–plus they probably would need Miami to lose a game, although not too many games because then it makes A&M’s loss to Miami look worse.
The first month of the season really has not gone according to plan for both Alabama and Texas A&M.
But by no means does that make this an uninteresting or low-stakes matchup.
Setting aside the fact that there is not a single ounce of love lost between the head coaches of these two programs, what this game represents is a chance for both teams to retake control of their seasons. Whichever team wins is suddenly very much alive for a playoff spot. Sure, they’d have no room for error and would have to win out and beat Georgia in the SEC Championship game, but this game is likely going to be both teams’ toughest regular season conference challenge anyway because LSU has been disappointing. Whoever wins this game will be comfortably favored to win the SEC West.
The loser of this game, of course, is eliminated because no 2-loss team has ever made the 4-team playoff, and it especially won’t happen this year because of how many contending teams there are around the country. This is not going to be a year where we see the Big Ten and/or SEC get two playoff teams in. If you want to make the playoff this year, you pretty much have to win your conference. Period.
My Power Rankings really like A&M (#3 in the nation!) yet they’re not even currently ranked. It’s going to be hard for them to beat Alabama now that QB Conner Weigman is out for the year with a foot injury, but this is still really a make or break game for Jimbo Fisher. The A&M fanbase (and more importantly the powerful Aggie booster network) will not cut him any slack for losing this game just because the starting QB is done for the season. They’re already looking at Jimbo sideways as it is after the embarrassment of going 5-7 last year–that and losing by 15 to Miami on the road in week 2.
But if Jimbo beats Bama again, the hot seat cools down significantly. Then they’ll be in the driver’s seat in the SEC West and have a real shot at making the playoff.
And there’s just something about beating Alabama that really stamps a coach and buys him a lot of leeway with the fanbase and the boosters. Before this season, the talk about Sark was “Is he the guy? Is his seat starting to warm up a bit? Is he cut out for this job?” Then he beats Bama and all the sudden, nobody’s saying any of that stuff anymore. Sark is now (rightly) recognized as one of the best coaches in America. People believe Texas is back, they’re a powerhouse again, and they just might be the best team in the country (I would rank them #1 right now, personally). You beat Bama and that means you’ve proved yourself. You’re legit.
Jimbo has already beaten Bama, and it was only 2 years ago. But beating Alabama only gets you so far when you kind of fumble the bag (A&M went just 8-4 in 2021), and when you completely piss down your leg the following season (5-7 in 2022, first losing season since 2009).
So Jimbo kind of needs to win this game to get back in the good graces and re-stamp himself. If he loses, I think the Aggie fanbase might just give up on him.
Although Bama seems to have rebounded somewhat from that embarrassing showing against South Florida in week 3, they just don’t feel as buttoned up as they have in the past. You know my thoughts on that: Saban is getting old and he’s slipping. You’re seeing things you never saw before at Alabama, and they would’ve been evident earlier but Bryce Young covered them up for the past two years. Now that he’s gone, it’s like somebody shined a bright light on Bama and exposed everything.
People are talking about how Alabama has this great defense and in particular this great secondary, but I’m still skeptical. Yes, they played well against Jaxson Dart and the Ole Miss passing attack, but they got lit up by Texas. Ewers went for 349 and 3 TDs through the air with several deep bombs that connected. It reminded me of the Tennessee game last year where Hendon Hooker went for 385 and 5 TDs with a bunch of bombs over the top. Any team that is actually close to Bama’s level when it comes to talent, and has an NFL-caliber quarterback with NFL-caliber receivers–you can really have your way with Bama’s secondary.
I know that’s a high bar to clear, but that’s just the reality of what it takes to beat a team that is as overwhelmingly talented as Alabama. Not many teams out there are capable of doing it, not many teams have the talent to go toe-to-toe with them.
Thus far, Texas is the only team on Bama’s schedule that has been in the same neighborhood in roster talent. Bama of course towers over everybody in the composite and blue chip rankings–they’re in the penthouse. But Texas is maybe only a few floors down. And they were able to beat Bama pretty good. I think, personally, Texas won that game because the talent gap isn’t too crazy and Texas just has better coaching overall.
Again, I think Saban is losing his touch and Tommy Rees is in over his head as offensive coordinator. Alabama wins a lot of games on pure talent alone–like the South Florida game. Most teams out there can scheme and execute their hearts out but will still lose to Bama because the talent gap is just so massive.
But when the talent gap isn’t massive, teams are having success outscheming and out-executing Alabama over these past few years. Texas did it; Tennessee and LSU did it last year–good talent with great coaching can beat great talent with mediocre coaching.
That’s the way I see it. You have to be able to throw the ball, though, when it comes to Alabama.
Texas A&M has very good talent. They’re in the top-4 in the composite rankings, but in reality even the top of the top has tiers. Bama is in a class of their own, then Georgia and Ohio State are in their own tier a little bit below Bama, and then Texas A&M, Clemson and Texas are in their own tier below Georgia and Ohio State.
Texas has already beaten Bama. A&M has slightly better talent than Texas does. So I absolutely think A&M can win this game on paper, that’s what I’m getting at. It’s just a matter of will they be able to out-scheme and out-execute Bama, and can they throw the ball well enough to exploit Bama’s secondary?
I’d feel a lot more comfortable in them doing that if they still had Conner Weigman, but shoot: A&M with Haynes King last year hung in there with Bama every step of the way and posted the third-most passing yards anybody put up on last year’s Bama defense, 253 (Texas and Tennessee were the only teams ahead of them). And of course A&M didn’t exactly throw it efficiently last year, but Haynes King isn’t exactly a great QB (he transferred out to Georgia Tech). Plus, Jimbo was still running the offense last year–now they’ve got Bobby Petrino in charge of the offense and they look much better (6.5 yards per play this year, 32nd in the nation vs. 5.7 yards per play last year, 61st in the nation).
The quarterback that has stepped in to replace Weigman is Max Johnson, a transfer from LSU. He’s a 6’5” senior with a ton of experience–he was LSU’s full time starter in 2021 and put up 2,800 yards passing, 27 touchdowns and only 6 INTs. As far as backup quarterbacks go, he’s about as good as it gets.
A&M’s coaching staff knows that the only way to score points on Bama is to attack their secondary. Ole Miss did not do that a couple of weeks ago. Ole Miss threw the ball 36 times against Bama and ran it 29 times. They were getting stonewalled in the run game, only 56 yards on 29 carries, yet for whatever reason Lane never really abandoned the run and just went pass-heavy.
Meanwhile, last season, A&M threw the ball 47 times against Bama and only ran it 25 times. I think that was the right approach–you have to have almost a 2:1 pass to run ratio when you go up against Alabama unless you’re connecting on deep shots like Texas was this year and Tennessee was last year. You’re not going to just steamroll Alabama with the run game (although it’s not impossible to do so; it has happened sporadically in the past, and not always against elite competition. And Mississippi State actually had some decent numbers running the ball against Bama this past weekend, surprisingly). Haynes King just wasn’t quite good enough to really slice and dice that Bama secondary last year.
Max Johnson might be. I definitely have more confidence in him than I did in Haynes King last year. I have more confidence in the A&M offense with Petrino this year. I do think they’ll have some success throwing the ball on Bama on Saturday–maybe not as much as Texas had with Ewers, but I think they’re going to let it rip, and it’s why I like A&M’s chances.
I also like the matchup for A&M defensively against Bama’s offense. Bama has only gone over 400 yards of offense once this year and it was against Middle Tennessee State in week 1. Jalen Milroe isn’t a very good passer even though Bama actually ranks pretty highly in yards per passing attempt–it’s just because they hardly ever throw the ball. Last week against Mississippi State, Bama had 13 pass attempts. Bama ranks 127th in the nation in pass attempts per game offensively. They’re in a three-way tie with Rutgers and Nebraska, and then only 4 teams are below them. One is New Mexico State, and the other three I’m sure you can guess who they are: Army, Navy and Air Force. So Bama has basically become a service academy offense this year.
Now, you can’t just completely ignore the pass against Bama, because they do have talented players and they will occasionally take shots.
But if you can stop the run against them and force them to pass? They’re in real trouble.
Against Texas, Bama was held to just 3.1 yards per rush attempt. Against Ole Miss, they were limited to 2.9 yards per rush. A&M can do that to Bama, too. They’ve got a really stout front seven, maybe a little suspect in the secondary but I don’t think Bama can exploit that.
If A&M can stop the run–and I think they will–then Alabama will have some real problems moving the ball. I think A&M is better on defense overall than both Texas and Ole Miss, and both of those teams still held Alabama to 24 points in Tuscaloosa.
I think it’ll be a very tall order for Bama to get over 20 points barring a defensive or special teams touchdown. I really don’t see it happening unless A&M just cannot contain the QB run. Jalen Milroe is an explosive and electrifying runner as a quarterback, and basically him scrambling is Bama’s best offensive “move,” so to speak. However, A&M is in the unique position in that they are the only team that got to play against Jalen Milroe for a full game last season. The one game Bryce Young missed with that shoulder injury was against A&M, so A&M’s defense can be uniquely prepared for the challenge that Milroe presents given that this will be their second time going up against him.
Offensively for A&M, like we just went over: go after that Alabama secondary. Let Max Johnson sling it; don’t just turtle up like Lane Kiffin did and default to running the ball. Texas A&M has some good receivers. Evan Stewart is a real stud in particular.
I don’t think A&M is going to slice and dice the Bama secondary the way Texas did, but I think they will be able to have some success; they should be capable of moving the ball through the air against Bama. That’s the way to do it–you’re not going to beat Alabama with a run-first offensive game plan, flat out.
I think it’ll be a low-scoring game. Vegas has the over/under at 46.5 with Bama as a 1.5 point favorite (it opened up at Bama -3.5, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a pick ‘em at kickoff). That means they’re basically expecting a 24-23 or 24-22 Alabama win.
I’m going to take A&M to win outright. My power ratings like them a lot more than they like Bama. Basically my power ratings project A&M to win in a blowout, although the loss of Weigman isn’t really accounted for yet so take that with a grain of salt.
I’m expecting Alabama to have some real problems moving the football. I don’t expect A&M to go crazy offensively, but they’ll have more success moving the ball than Bama will if A&M really commits to throwing the football. And I think they will. Jimbo threw it 47 times against Bama last year with Haynes King–I don’t think he’ll shy away from throwing it this time with Max Johnson, especially against a Bama defense that I think is a little bit worse than last year.
What’s interesting is that A&M has come into the Bama game each of the past three years with a backup quarterback. In 2021, they beat Bama on a last-second field goal with Zach Calzada at quarterback filling in for Haynes King (he’s now at Incarnate Word). Last year, they kind of flipped back and forth between Haynes King, who opened up the season as the starter, and Max Johnson, who replaced him as the starter after they infamously lost to Appalachian State at home. By the Bama game, Johnson was already done for the season with a broken hand and King became the starter again. Eventually, by about late October, Jimbo had seen enough of Haynes King and turned to the true freshman Weigman who started the last few games. It was a real mess last year for A&M on offense.
A&M has played Bama really tough and really close each of the past two years. They won at home in 2021 and were about a yard away from winning in Tuscaloosa last year. Jimbo always gets up for this game, and I see no reason not to expect a close and competitive game on Saturday. I’m excited.
Aggies 26, Bama 19 in a field goal fest.
Fade the Public 