Power ratings going into week 9:
Penn State moved up despite losing to Ohio State. That’s largely because Penn State had really good stats prior to this game but were weighed down by their poor strength of schedule. Now they rank pretty highly in SOS so in the formula’s eyes it kind of validates everything they’ve done. Ohio State didn’t wreck their statistical profile because, again, they were really dominant statistically prior to that game.
Meanwhile Georgia is under-ranked in large part because they have one of the softest schedules in the country–only Michigan has played a softer schedule in the Power Five.
Here are the gambling picks for this week:
Picks are 49-38-1 on the season, a 56.3% win rate.
Some quick thoughts:
- Soft up the middle: I judge teams by, when they’re on defense, and a ball carrier runs it up the gut–and on the TV since you’re looking from the side the ball carrier is often obscured by bodies–do runners just get swallowed up by that mass of humanity for a 1-2 yard gain? Or do they pop out on the other side?
- I’m watching Florida State vs. Duke and I’m seeing a lot of Duke ball carriers popping out on the other side and getting out to the second level. I’m seeing a lot of Utah ball carriers do that against USC.
- To me, that’s what soft up the middle looks like. If I see ball carriers go into that line and pop out on the other side more often than not, you ain’t winning a natty.
- Teams that win the natty eat those running backs up consistently. They don’t let them pop out the other side. Runners disappear into the line and they stay there. They don’t reappear.
- USC lets guys reappear. And even Florida State does as well. I saw a lot of Duke ball carriers reappear on the other side and run for more yards. Nothing is going to bias me against your team than when I see guys constantly popping back out the other side of the line, getting through holes and into the second level.
- Tells me all I need to know.
- Also, when teams consistently can’t seal off the edge and let runners get around the corner. If your linebackers can play sideline to sideline and if your defensive ends can’t set the edge, I’m out on you.
- Anyway, Florida State easily could’ve lost that game to Duke. Jordan Travis’s running ability was their saving grace but Duke’s defense is for real and they were able to run the ball. Once Leonard went down Duke just kind of broke down as a team. But with Leonard I thought they looked like the better team quite honestly.
- UNC lost to 1-5 UVA. Well, 2-5 UVA that is.
- What a way to ruin the undefeated season, huh? You have this great start, go 6-0, and then you squander it by losing to the worst team in the ACC. What a disappointment.
- I was thinking UNC could at least make it to 9-0, have a big ranked matchup with Duke on November 11, then they’d have Clemson and NC State to close it out. There was a real chance UNC could’ve gone undefeated into the ACC Championship.
- But they blew it. They just blew it. What a shame.
- Texas barely beat Houston on the road. 31-24 was the final, but Houston got absolutely screwed by a horrible spot on 4th down when they were knocking on the door to score a game-tying TD.
- Worst of all, Quinn Ewers will miss at least a few games with a sprained AC joint in his shoulder, grade 2 injury. There is no definite timetable available right now but it will be at least a couple of weeks. From what I could find on Google, it’s anywhere from 1-6 weeks.
- I almost forgot about this, but after Ewers went down, the QB that replaced him was Maalik Murphy. It wasn’t Arch Manning. Now, look–Arch Manning is a true freshman and Murphy is a sophomore, but it is mildly surprising that Arch Manning is the third-stringer and not the backup.
- If anything happens to Murphy, though, will we see Arch Manning? Interesting storyline.
- Oklahoma was in a dogfight with UCF in Norman. It came down to a 2 point conversion for UCF, which they completely botched to lose 31-29.
- For those not fully sold on Oklahoma (like myself), this will only add fuel to the fire.
Cheaters 49, Michigan State 0
The Cheaters were celebrating that win over hapless Michigan State like they won the National Championship.
Michigan State is just terrible. They are now 2-5, losers of 5 straight games, they have not beaten a Power Five team this season. Their only wins are over Central Michigan and Richmond, an FCS team. They lost 41-7 at home to Washington, 31-9 at home to Maryland, 26-16 on the road to Iowa, 27-24 to Rutgers, and now 49-0 to the Cheaters. Only once have they been within a score of beating a Power Five team.
There is not one Power Five program that has played an easier schedule than the Cheaters. They rank 110 out of 133. Everyone below them is a G5 team (or independent).
The Cheaters, however, only ran for 3.5 yards per carry against Sparty.
The Cheaters’ run game isn’t what it was the past couple of years. It’s regressed quite noticeably this year.
Overall, though–Michigan is fucked. They’re done.
You know my thoughts on them: they are a fraudulent program that no matter how good they look in the regular season will always get exposed sooner or later. They have never held the lead in a playoff game. They don’t have the athletes on the perimeter to win a National Championship. They do not recruit at a National Championship level.
The only reason they’ve looked like a National Championship contender the past three years is because they’ve been cheating. That’s it.
Now that the cheating has been exposed, it’s over for them. They are done.
The only way they MAYBE could’ve won a National Championship this year is if their cheating was never exposed and they could’ve cheated their way to a Natty.
But now that door has been slammed shut in their faces.
It’s over. They do not have the upper hand on anybody anymore. They are going to have to play these games on a level playing field and go through teams that are far more talented than they are.
They will no longer know which plays are coming, and it’s a death blow for them. They’re cooked.
Michigan has been using this sign stealing advantage as a crutch the past three years. They haven’t been playing football–not really. They’ve just been going off the fact that they know what play the other team is running. When they’re not able to do that, they’re fucked.
It’s like the kid who used to always screen-peek in split-screen multiplayer Halo back in the day. He gets online and gets destroyed because he can’t cheat anymore–his entire MO was just looking at your screen, seeing where you are and coming after you. Now he can’t do that anymore.
Anyone who thinks Michigan is going to beat Penn State, Ohio State and then two playoff teams from other conferences, like Georgia, Oklahoma, Washington, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Florida State–there is absolutely no chance of that happening.
What they have done to this point in the season is FAKE. It’s a product of cheating.
I also wanted to share something that I found interesting:
This chart shows the difference between how Michigan performed in the first half vs. how they performed in the second half, dating back to the start of the 2021 season.
One of the main hallmarks of their cheating has been that they come out in the second half and are a completely different team than they were in the first half. I’m not fully certain why that is, but there has to be some way that they calibrated their whole operation based on what they saw in the first half against what they saw when they scouted their opponents in previous games.
But you can see here, last year against Rutgers, they were losing 17-14 in the first half, then somehow outscored Rutgers 38-0 in the second half.
Last year against Ohio State, they went into halftime down 20-17, yet in the second half they outscored Ohio State 28-3.
2022 against Penn State: up just 16-14 at half, outscore Penn State 25-3, in the second half. This was the game where Michigan rushed for 418 yards against a Penn State defense that finished the year 9th in the country in run defense, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. Somehow Michigan was able to run for 418 on them. I went back and looked: Michigan averaged 4.8 yards a carry in the first half, and 10.6 in the second half. They had a 67 yard TD run and a 61 yard TD run on consecutive plays in the second half.
2022 against Indiana: tied 10-10 at half, outscored Indiana 21-0 in the second half.
2022 Big Ten Championship against Purdue: they’re up just 14-13 at half, yet in the second half they go out there and outscore Purdue 29-9.
2021 against Wisconsin: leading 13-10 at half, then outscored Wisconsin 25-7 in the second half.
It appears to me that their sign-stealing program becomes fully operational in the second half. That’s when you really start to see the effects.
Also, one other thing I thought of: if Michigan is somehow not disqualified from the Big Ten and not disqualified from the CFP, then why wouldn’t everyone else start cheating? Even if you get caught cheating in the middle of the season, they’re not going to punish you until after the season is over? They’re just going to let you carry on? Fuck that.
First of all, they shouldn’t even be allowed to play against teams they’ve scouted. But another thing, we don’t actually know the full extent of their scouting–we don’t know if we know everything at this point, so we have to assume that every team on Michigan’s schedule or potentially on Michigan’s schedule has been scouted and spied on already.
That includes the four remaining games they have, any and all potential Big Ten Championship opponents, and any and all potential CFP opponents–Georgia, Alabama, Florida State, Texas, Oklahoma, Washington, Oregon. We have to assume, given that we know they spied on at least Georgia and Tennessee and Clemson last year, that they not only scouted teams in other conferences but expanded the scope of the operation for this year given that they failed to scout TCU last year and lost to them. I would assume that Michigan came into this season not taking any chances–if there’s even a remote chance of a team making the playoff, you can bet Michigan has scouted them.
I would say there’s a list of at least 10+ teams that Michigan should not be allowed to play, and that list includes Purdue, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa in the Big Ten. Then I would include Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Oregon, Washington, and Florida State–the non-Big Ten playoff contenders remaining. That’s 13 teams that we have to assume Michigan has already scouted.
They should not be allowed to play those teams. Personally, I’d like to see Michigan play the good teams because I’m confident Michigan would lose to them, but if you’re looking at this purely from a fairness and competitive integrity standpoint, there’s absolutely no way that Michigan should be allowed to play any of those teams.
Nor should the potential exist for Michigan to take a playoff spot from any of those teams.
Back to my original point, though: If Michigan is not ruled ineligible for the Big Ten Championship and the CFP, then what message does that send to everyone else?
It sends the message that you might as well cheat, because even if you get caught mid-season, you’re still not going to be disqualified. Sure, you might run into some issues with the NCAA after the season (and we will have to see what ultimately happens to them, because that’s a big deal as well for future precedent), but if the Big Ten and the governing bodies that control the sport do not move swiftly to disqualify Michigan, then that means you can cheat and even get caught and it still won’t affect your chances at winning a Natty. So why not risk it if it’s going to help you?
There have to be consequences this year for cheating this year. It has to be swift and severe otherwise there’s not enough of a disincentive against it.
The repercussions against Michigan must be so severe that nobody ever tries this again.
Nobody should ever be able to get caught cheating and still compete for the National Title in the same season.
There is absolutely no way Michigan should be allowed to compete for both Big Ten title and the National Title this year.
It’s Dabover in Clemson
Clemson lost to Miami and Tyler Van Dyke didn’t even play. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Nothing better than Dabo Swinney losing. Fuck Dabo.
He seems like one of those guys who goes out of his way to be disagreeable. It seems like not only is he a dickhead, he goes out of his way to be a dickhead.
Last week he was complaining about fans that are critical of the team, saying “Maybe we need to lose a few games and lighten up the bandwagon. Sometimes the bandwagon can get a little too full.”
And then his team went out and lost its very next game. I’m sure that made Dabo happy. After all, he did openly muse about losing a few games to shed some of the more fair weather fans.
I think Dabo’s ego has just gotten out of control. He believes he is beyond reproach, and it irks him that he is not unanimously beloved and revered. Classic narcissistic personality disorder: it is not enough that 95% of the people like you–you focus on the 5%. How dare there be ANYONE out there that does not realize how wonderful and amazing I am?!
For him to say something like that during the middle of the week in the season shows you that he’s just not completely focused on the opponent and the game. Every coach in America talks about how it’s a priority to block out the outside noise, not worry about what people are saying, the only people whose opinions are important are those in the locker room, etc.
Dabo just goes against all that, demonstrating that he does pay attention to what people say about him and the Clemson football program, that he does care what outside voices think about him, and that he is not totally focused on this week’s opponent.
It shows on the field. They lost this game to Miami. It’s fair to ask whether that’s because Dabo was too concerned with what the fans were saying about him on the message boards.
Clemson is 3-5 in its last 8 games against Power Five opponents, and 5-6 in the last 11.
Dabo’s quarterback, Cade Klubnik, called his own number on the last play of the game against Miami instead of running the play that was called. When he ran out towards the sideline and got strung out and tackled–that was all him. That wasn’t the actual play that was called. Klubnik was supposed to actually hand that ball off to the running back, not keep it himself.
But he had no faith in the play call. He had no faith in his coaches, so he said forget the play call, I’m taking this myself. The announcers remarked before the play that there was a lot of green grass open to the left, and that’s what Klubnik tried to do–he basically figured it would be a foot race between himself and the linebacker to the pylon, it’s just the linebacker was faster than him.
Is Cade Klubnik about to be the second straight 5-star QB that transfers out of Clemson? He’s already the second straight 5-star QB that has been disappointing at Clemson. The one before him, DJ Uiagaleilei, transferred to Oregon State, and he’s quietly having the best season of his career after looking like a complete bust at Clemson. Not to mention his team is ranked #11 in the nation while Clemson is 4-3 and unranked.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Klubnik hits the portal after this season after realizing the same thing about Clemson that DJU realized: Clemson ain’t Clemson anymore. They don’t develop QBs anymore.
What a disaster Dabo’s program is. Nobody deserves it more than him, though–other than maybe Jim Harbaugh, but he’s already getting his.
Washington 15, Arizona State 7
A lot of people probably didn’t stay up to watch the Washington/Arizona State game, but a 15-7 win at home over a 1-5 team? And Washington was at HOME?
Not pretty for Washington. They were coming off that big, emotional win over Oregon, and you often see teams come out flat the following week after games like that.
So I’m not going to overreact to this. One game can be an aberration. If they perform like this against Stanford this weekend, then we can start to freak out and wonder if they’ve been “figured out.”
But at the same time I’ve not been totally sold on Washington all season.
I don’t view them as a complete team. Talent-wise, they do not have the same type of roster as most of the other teams in the top-10. They are not a top 10-15 roster, they are more like a top-30 roster.
They’re not elite on defense; they allow 5.2 yards per play which ranks 41st in the nation. They’re not elite at running the ball; they average 4.4 yards per carry, 57th nationally. It’s really just that passing game.
Plus, Oregon really should’ve won that game a couple weeks ago.
So it’s not like this Arizona State game made me think, “Whoa, maybe Washington isn’t an elite team after all.” I’ve always thought that.
I think Washington is good, probably even top-10, but I’ve never bought them as an elite National Championship contender.
We do have to discuss a few stats from this game, because there were some very concerning things in the box score as it pertains to Washington.
First up: Arizona State limited them to 288 yards of offense. Washington averages 507 yards of offense this year, and they were averaging over 543 a game prior to Saturday.
Penix threw for 275 yards, 27/42. Just 6.5 yards per attempt.
If you’ve passed Algebra 1, you can solve for X here pretty easily: if Washington had 288 yards of offense, and Michael Penix threw for 275, and you can only gain yards by either throwing the ball or running it, that must mean their run game was essentially nonexistent.
Yeah.
13 total yards rushing. On 13 carries. So 1 yard per carry. And they clearly abandoned the run in this game even though it was obviously a close game the whole time. Washington was losing until about midway through the 4th quarter, but damn, ASU only scored 7 points!
I mean, technically Washington’s running backs had 19 yards on 9 carries, but that ain’t a whole lot better than 13 yards on 13 carries.
ASU won time of possession 37.5 to 22.5.
Washington was averaging over 40 points a game, and in this game they had 9 offensive points.
The only touchdown they scored was a pick six, so they had no offensive touchdowns.
It’s difficult for me to overstate just how differently Washington looked from their normal selves.
They were arguably the best offense in the country coming into this game, but it was like they didn’t even show up for the game. They’re #1 in the country in yards per play at 8.1, tied with LSU, and yet they averaged about 5.3 yards per play at home against 1-5 Arizona State.
If someone who had never watched Washington play before Saturday watched them for the first time, and you told them that’s actually the best offense in the country, they’d never believe you.
Again, it’s difficult for me to overstate just how dramatic a departure that performance was compared to what they’ve done offensively in their first 7 games.
I don’t know what to make of it, yet. It could just be an aberration–they didn’t show up, they came out flat, they were emotionally still spent from the Oregon game, they didn’t prepare well during the week.
Or it could be that Arizona State figured them out. They’ve got the book on Washington, and now everyone has a blueprint for how to stop this previously unstoppable offense. I don’t think that’s the case, because it generally doesn’t work like that, but it could be a little bit true.
Only time will tell, but damn, this just reinforces the idea that all the contenders are flawed and there is no clear runaway favorite this year.
Just when everyone was jumping on the Washington bandwagon, proclaiming them as the best team in the country, they came out and did this. Not good.
Not good at all.
Ohio State 20, Penn State 12
The game definitely wasn’t as close as the score. Penn State added a late garbage time TD with under a minute left. Well, I guess it wasn’t technically garbage time because if they would’ve gotten the onside kick they would’ve had a chance to go down and tie it up, but the game definitely felt like it was over at that point, so it felt like garbage time.
Penn State was 0-15 on third down until they picked up one on their late desperation drive. Drew Allar in particular was not having a good time out there.
If you just exclude that last drive for Penn State, they basically had nothing going on offense. They broke a few chunk plays in the first half but that was about it.
Rushing the ball, Penn State had 26 carries for 49 yards, 1.9 yards a carry. However, Ohio State also sacked Allar 4 times, and the yards you lose on sacks count against your rushing yards. Penn State’s running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen were a combined 18 yards for 74 yards, which isn’t bad at 4.1 yards per carry, but also, Nick Singleton had a 20 yard run followed by a 16 yard run early in the game. After that, they were getting nothing on the ground. Absolutely nothing.
Drew Allar in this game was 18/42 passing (!) for 191 yards and 1 touchdown. On that last drive alone, he was 8/12 passing for 73 yards and a TD, meaning that prior to that last drive, he was TEN OF THIRTY passing for 118 yards. 3.9 yards per attempt. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a quarterback completing 33% of his passes well into the 4th quarter in a ranked matchup.
I don’t think anybody could’ve predicted that Allar would be this bad. I’m not saying he is bad, or that he’s a bust and never deserved to be a 5-star. He’s only a sophomore, and that was his first real test of his career in a big time road game against a team with a top-3 roster in the country. His receivers were being blanketed the whole game, they could not run the ball a lick, his offensive line couldn’t protect him–I really don’t know what more Drew Allar could’ve done in this game other than turn into Patrick Mahomes and start running around in circles back there until somebody gets open.
Credit to Drew Allar, though: he didn’t pout, he took responsibility for the loss even if it wasn’t totally his fault. He said, “Hey, I sucked.” That’s what leaders do. That’s what quarterbacks have to do–they get too much credit when their teams win, but they also have to take on too much of the blame when they lose. That’s what you have to do–you tell the media and the fans to put all the blame on you, and you stand up for your teammates even if they let you down. You have to be that lightning rod. It goes a long way in the locker room.
I’m both concerned and not concerned about the Ohio State offense.
On the one hand, there’s some accuracy issues with Kyle McCord, plus a few drops by the receivers that don’t normally happen. I’m wondering if McCord just doesn’t throw the most catchable ball? Multiple Ohio State receivers dropped passes on Saturday, and dropped passes are absolutely killer. That will get you beat eventually. I’m expecting Ohio State to get those issues cleaned up, and I don’t think they’re very far off from having everything click in the passing game–they’ve just got to get McCord’s footwork improved, his pocket presence, and he needs to get in rhythm with his receivers. There were some throws that would’ve gone for big yardage–possibly even touchdowns–that McCord just missed. That has to get dialed in over the next few weeks, and I think it absolutely can be. Those Ohio State receivers were getting open, and they consistently get open on just about everybody. The question is whether McCord can hit them.
McCord doesn’t have to be CJ Stroud. CJ Stroud was never fortunate enough to have an elite defense holding it down. McCord just has to be like Brock Purdy. I think actually the San Francisco 49ers are a good comparison for this Ohio State team, even though obviously the 49ers are in the NFL and Ohio State is in college football. What I mean is that both teams have absolutely stacked rosters, are phenomenal on defense, have weapons galore, but a quarterback who isn’t quite that elite-level surgeon. The 49ers just ask Brock Purdy to A. not turn the ball over, and B. get the ball in the hands of their great weapons and let them do their thing. They don’t ask him to slice and dice defenses and put the entire team on his back. All Kyle McCord has to be this year is Brock Purdy–he doesn’t have to be CJ Stroud, he doesn’t have to be Michael Penix, he just has to be like Brock Purdy.
The big issue I’m worried about for Ohio State that might not be fixable: run blocking. They haven’t been great at it all season. Ohio State actually was run blocking better than I thought they would early on in the game, but as the game went on, Penn State started to stuff the run more and more. Ohio State ran 18 times for 69 yards in the first half, about 3.8 yards per carry, which isn’t amazing in a vacuum, but then again Penn State is the second best run defense in the whole Power Five behind only UCLA. They allow 2.3 yards per carry on the season, so I guess 3.8 is pretty decent all things considered. (But Ohio State fans expect 7 yards a carry against everyone they play.)
However, in the second half, Ohio State ran the ball 19 times for 24 yards, just 1.3 yards a carry. It’s entirely possible Penn State started selling out against the run in the second half, I won’t be certain until I can actually watch a film breakdown, but still, even if they were, 1.3 yards per carry is not good enough. It’s not National Championship-caliber.
(Again, I understand that Penn State is a great run defense–maybe the best in the country, although their biggest test will be the Cheaters, because the Cheaters run the shit out of the ball. And they ran for 418 against Penn State last year, although how much of that was due to their cheating is anyone’s guess. The Cheaters aren’t allowed to cheat anymore because everyone is now wise to their dirty tricks, and also I don’t think they’re nearly as good at running the ball this year as they were the past two years, but still, it’s going to be a test for Penn State nonetheless.)
For Ohio State to really be in a place where they can win a National Championship, they need to get that run game improved. You don’t have to be elite in every category to win a Natty, but you can’t be outright deficient in any one area. Your worst unit has to be at least classified as “decent.” It can’t be classified as “bad.”
I saw on multiple occasions, mostly in the second half, Ohio State’s offensive line opened up a running lane, and the running back hit it, but then was instantly popped or strung out by a linebacker coming downhill. Run blocking is about more than just pushing the defensive line backwards. Ohio State’s offensive line is, in my opinion, pretty good at just doing that–they get good push at the line more often than not. The problem is that it’s also about getting up to the linebackers and engaging them in blocks so they aren’t just free to hit the running back.
I’m not sure if Ohio State will be able to improve their run blocking enough to win a National Title. I’m not saying they can’t, I’m just saying I’m skeptical that they can get it to a place where it’s not an Achilles Heel for them. Their passing attack isn’t quite dynamic enough for them to be this bad at run blocking. So that’s probably my biggest concern for Ohio State offensively.
But on the positive side, how likely is it that Ohio State faces a defense better than Penn State’s for the rest of the season? The Cheaters’ defense might be on that level, but we’ll see when they play somebody with a pulse. You always have to give respect to Georgia–even though their defense doesn’t seem quite as scary as it’s been the past couple of years, Kirby Smart is arguably the best defensive mind in the sport. Alabama’s defense has looked great at times, and obviously you have to give them respect as well because they just have an obscene amount of roster talent. But as for teams like Texas, Oklahoma, Florida State, Oregon, Washington? None of those teams have a defense like that.
So, you know, while it’s hard to feel great about what you saw out of Ohio State offensively on Saturday, the good news is, it might not ever be more difficult for them the rest of the way. That might very well have been the toughest defense they face all season long.
I also thought the Ohio State offensive line held up pretty well in pass protection. Penn State has a really good pass rush–although it was defanged a bit once Chop Robinson went out with that scary injury–and they sacked McCord twice. I was expecting 3-4 sacks. And one of the sacks Ohio State allowed wasn’t the offensive line’s fault–it was a running back failing to pick up a block.
So it was pretty darn good pass blocking by the Ohio State offensive line, all things considered. And this tells me that their struggles in run blocking likely aren’t a personnel issue, but rather a scheme or execution issue. Scheme and execution are much easier to fix than personnel–personnel is basically unfixable in the middle of the season unless it’s a matter of waiting for key guys to get healthy. Scheme and execution are fixed by the coaches making tweaks and changes, and the coaches just placing an emphasis on something in practice–making their players repeat something over and over until they’re good at it.
The narrative that has already emerged from the Ohio State/Penn State game is, “Whatever. Neither of those teams are very good.”
Did they both look pretty inept on offense? Sure. Ohio State less so, but it definitely was not pretty for much of that game for them.
But I think it would be remiss to act like there wasn’t great defense on display in that game.
Plus, when two top-10 teams play one another, it’s usually the case that neither looks completely dominant. I also think it’s mainly Cheaters fans scoffing. News flash: when your team plays the softest schedule in the country and knows every play the opponent is running due to cheating, you’re going to look pretty dominant.
This game played out like I thought it would, though. In the preview post, I picked Ohio State 24-14, and I think I was giving a little too much credit to Penn State. Ohio State should’ve had 26–Ryan Day once again royally fucked up by going for it on 4th and goal from the 2 instead of kicking a field goal to go up 13-6, and then Ohio State’s kicker narrowly missed a 45-yarder late in the game. Penn State should’ve had 6.
But I think my prediction was decent, in terms of the overall way the game played out. I thought the defenses would be a wash but that Ohio State would win because they were at home, and because they just had more weapons on offense, and as good as Penn State’s defense was, they were never going to shut down Ohio State completely.
I spent a lot of time talking about the recruiting rankings for these teams before the game, and I pointed out that Ohio State has a top-3 roster while Penn State has a top-15 roster, and there’s a major difference. People before this game were saying these were two evenly-matched teams–no, they weren’t. Penn State has an incredible roster full of NFL players, but it is still not on the level of Ohio State’s.
Ohio State was able to win this game without their (probable) All American cornerback Denzel Burke, without probable first round receiver Emeka Egbuka, and without top running back Treyveon Henderson.
I talked before the game about depth being the real difference between these two teams in terms of roster talent. When you hit the top-15 in the country in roster talent, there’s not a huge difference in the number of NFL players starting for each team. Yes, Ohio State probably has a few more than Penn State, but these teams each had 6 players drafted to the NFL in the spring. When you hit the top-15 in composite talent, everybody has NFL players littered throughout their starting lineups. There’s 85 spots on a roster but only 22 starting spots. Let’s say Ohio State has, just throwing a number out there, 15 of their 22 starters who will go on to play in the NFL. Penn State might have 12-13. That’s not a huge gap.
Where the huge gap is between these teams–and really the gap between Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and the rest of the country–is in the depth. Ohio State has 4 and 5 star players backing up their 4 and 5 star starters. Penn State has a lot more 3 star guys backing up their 4 and 5 star starters. Ohio State is better able to cycle in high quality players along their defensive line, at cornerback, at running back and at wide receiver, which helps keep everyone fresh–not just in games but over the course of the season as well.
When you get to the top-15 rosters in the country, what separates the teams closer to the top from the teams closer to 15 is depth. The teams closer to the top are much better able to withstand injuries, and rotate players in and out.
Ohio State had a true freshman cornerback named Jermaine Matthews come in and play Burke’s role and he looked great. They had a true freshman receiver Carnell Tate come in and make a few catches and play a role.
Losing Emeka Egbuka is big for an inexperienced quarterback like Kyle McCord. It really is. Because Egbuka as the slot receiver is one of the safety blankets–the types of routes Egbuka runs, it’s just easier for McCord to complete passes to him than it is to complete passes to Marvin Harrison. Marv is an outside receiver, so a lot of the time he’s vertical down the field and those are just tougher throws to make than the middle of the field stuff Egbuka runs.
Ohio State did have Harrison running more intermediate and middle of the field stuff in this game, though. They moved him to the slot a bit instead of asking McCord to hit him on deep sideline routes.
And now we’re going to talk about Marvin Harrison Jr., who was the difference-maker in this game. Look, Ohio State’s defense played great. There’s no doubt about that, and I don’t want to take anything away from what they did. But Penn State’s defense also played pretty good, too. The difference was that Ohio State was just better on offense, and had more playmakers who were able to step up and get things done–particularly Marvin Harrison Jr. 11 catches, 162 yards and TD.
I think they said 10 of his 11 catches went for first downs, and that was just massive. Penn State couldn’t convert a third down. Ohio State was able to convert 6/16 third downs, and it felt like Marvin Harrison Jr. was the man making those conversions more often than not. He was just sensational–again, he was the biggest difference-maker in this game. The defenses were basically a wash. But Marvin Harrison Jr. was the guy who gave Ohio State the decisive edge: keeping drives alive, getting drives down the field, bailing out his quarterback, and scoring the touchdown that put the game on ice.
And Penn State has good players in their secondary, too. They send a lot of defensive backs to the NFL, and Kalen King, their primary cornerback, is a consensus first round pick in the 2024 Draft, with some sites even having him top-10. Penn State’s other corner, Johnny Dixon, isn’t as highly regarded as King, but still has a good shot to make it to the NFL.
Marvin Harrison was getting open regardless. Can’t say enough about how great of a player he is. He absolutely should be in the Heisman conversation, although honestly, I stopped taking the Heisman seriously when Ndamukong Suh finished 4th in the race in 2009 even though he was pretty obviously the best and most dominant college football player in America that year. Harrison has to continue playing at this elite level, but if he does, he absolutely deserves to not only go to New York, but be the favorite to win it. Just because he doesn’t play quarterback doesn’t mean he’s not the best player in the country.
People after the game were saying things like, “Well if Penn State had Marvin Harrison Jr. they would’ve won the game.”
But they didn’t have him.
And that’s why I talked so much about recruiting before this game. It makes a big difference. You can’t just say, “Well what if Penn State had Marvin Harrison Jr.?” They didn’t, and it’s because Penn State doesn’t recruit at as high of a level as Ohio State does. There’s a reason Marvin Harrison was wearing scarlet and gray instead of blue and white.
It’s ridiculous to try and say Ohio State wouldn’t have won this game if Marvin Harrison was on Penn State. Look, Penn State is a great football program, but Ohio State is an elite football program. Ohio State is just more likely to have generational, gamebreaking players like Marvin Harrison Jr.
It’s like if people would’ve said after the Georgia-Auburn game, “Well Auburn would’ve won if they had Brock Bowers!” Well, no shit. But players like Brock Bowers are much more likely to go to Georgia than to Auburn. If Auburn had Brock Bowers, then they wouldn’t be Auburn–they’d be Alabama.
And if my aunt had a dick, she’d be my uncle.
I mean no disrespect to Auburn; they’re a fine program that has won a National Championship pretty recently. I’m just trying to illustrate how ridiculous it is to say if Marvin Harrison Jr. was on Penn State instead of Ohio State they would’ve won. It ain’t like Marvin Harrison Jr. just flipped a coin to decide between going to Ohio State or Penn State. He chose Ohio State over Penn State for a reason.
Ohio State is known for developing elite wide receivers. It’s what they do. They have the best wide receiver recruiter and developer in the country in Brian Hartline. There’s a very good reason why Marvin Harrison Jr.–and plenty of other elite receiver prospects–choose Ohio State.
Plus, you’re more likely to compete for National Championships at Ohio State. Ohio State has been to the playoff 5 times, Penn State hasn’t ever been.
It’s like saying, “Man, the only reason you have that Ferrari is because you make a million bucks a year. If I made a million bucks a year I’d have a Ferrari, too!” Well, no shit. But you don’t.
And I don’t mean to sound like I’m bad-mouthing Penn State because really, I’m not. They’re one of the best programs in the country year-in and year-out. They’re probably a top-10 program in the country. But Ohio State is a top-3 program in the country, and there’s a difference. That difference is why Ohio State has gone 9-1 against Penn State over the past decade.
And by the way–Penn State has had a Marvin Harrison Jr.-level generational player in the not-so-distant past. His name is Saquon Barkley. The amount of games they won purely because they had Saquon Barkley and the team they played against didn’t–probably quite a few.
So I’m not even trying to say that Penn State doesn’t land generational players like Marvin Harrison Jr., or that they can’t–they absolutely can, and they do. It’s just that Ohio State gets them more frequently.
The next four weeks for Ohio State, the name of the game is to stay healthy, and work on the offense. They’ve got the following coming up:
- At Wisconsin
- At Rutgers
- Michigan State
- Minnesota
- At Cheaters
Kyle McCord needs to get on the same page as his receivers and be more accurate. The Ohio State running game needs to improve significantly.
But that’s really it, outside of getting healthy.
They should be able to handle Wisconsin pretty easily. Defense travels, as they say, so I’m not thinking that Ohio State is at a super high risk for an emotional letdown game. Wisconsin lost their starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai, and now their offense is having a lot of trouble scoring points, so I don’t think they’ll be able to score much, if at all, on Ohio State’s defense.
I bet they’ll frustrate Ohio State’s offense a bit, because Luke Fickell (Buckeye born and bred) always has his teams playing great defense, so I look for Ohio State to win that game something like 27-3 or 27-6. Vegas has Ohio State winning 30-15, but it’s tough for me to see Wisconsin scoring more points on Ohio State’s defense than Penn State did. Load up against the run and stop Braelon Allen, force Wisco to pass, and it’s done.
This could be a close, four-quarter game, though. Night games in Wisconsin are dangerous, Luke Fickell is extra motivated to win this game, and with Ohio State coming off that big emotional win–all the elements are there for an upset, I’m not going to lie to you. This is exactly the type of game you’d get upset in.
It’s just hard for me to pick Wisconsin when they don’t have their starting quarterback.
However, looking at the history of the series between these two programs, it actually reminds me a lot of what I saw when I looked at the history between Ohio State and Purdue: Ohio State wins most of the time (76%) but lately, it’s been pretty scary for Ohio State on the road.
Last year, Ohio State won 52-21 in Columbus. The last time they played before that was the 2019 Big Ten Championship, which Ohio State won 34-21. They played in the 2019 regular season, also, and Ohio State won 38-7 in Columbus. They played in the 2017 Big Ten Championship and Ohio State won 27-21.
So when it’s in Indianapolis or Columbus, Ohio State wins pretty reliably.
But in Madison, it’s a different story. Wisconsin doesn’t always win, but it’s usually really close. And it typically doesn’t matter if it’s a great Wisconsin team, or a mediocre one.
The last time they played in Madison was 2016. Ohio State won 30-23, in overtime.
Before that, the last game in Madison was 2012. Ohio State won 21-14–also in overtime.
Then they played in Madison in 2010 when Ohio State was ranked #1, and Wisconsin pulled the upset 31-18, catapulting themselves to the Big Ten Title and the Rose Bowl.
Ohio State won 20-17 in Madison in 2008.
Overall, since 2000, Ohio State’s record in Madison is 5-2, but the average margin of those games is under 3 points. Ohio State averages 20.1 points, Wisconsin averages 17.6.
So yes, while Ohio State has won 9 in a row in the series and hasn’t lost to Wisconsin since 2010, these games in Madison have been very close.
Wouldn’t be a surprise if this game is close as well.
Alabama 34, Tennessee 20
It hasn’t been pretty, and they have not looked like the typical, dominant Alabama, but since that hideous 17-3 win over South Florida in week 3, Alabama has put together a pretty impressive resume.
They beat a top-15 Ole Miss team in convincing fashion, 24-10. They went on the road and beat a talented Texas A&M team 26-20. And now they just beat a top-20 Tennessee team 34-20.
Like I said, the caveat is that it’s not been pretty. In all three of those wins, Bama started slow. They were down 17-10 at the half against A&M and very well could’ve lost the game. They were down 20-7 at half against Tennessee before completely turning off the lights in the second half.
But things are turning more and more in Bama’s favor with each passing week, it seems. The only real test they’ve got remaining is the LSU game, which will be next weekend in Tuscaloosa. That is basically the SEC West Championship game–whoever wins that game is going to Atlanta. Well, I guess LSU would need Ole Miss to lose another conference game.
Actually, if LSU were to beat Bama, it would create a weird situation where Bama would have one conference loss, LSU would have one conference loss, and Ole Miss would have a conference loss. Bama beat Ole Miss, Ole Miss beat LSU, and LSU would have a win over Alabama.
That creates exactly the kind of clusterfuck that the Big Ten East might have on its hands if Penn State beats Michigan and Michigan beats Ohio State: three teams in one division all tied in the standings. I’m not even going to get into what would happen if that’s how the standings shake out, or the tiebreakers, because it’s way too early for that. Ole Miss still has to play A&M and Georgia on the road. I don’t think Ole Miss finishes with one loss in the SEC.
But at the same time, people kind of wrote off LSU because of their early loss to Florida State–that was not pretty, no argument from me there. And then they lost 55-49 to Ole Miss. LSU’s defense has not looked good this season, though the past two weeks they’ve beaten Army 62-0 and Auburn 48-18, and it’s looked like their defense has improved, but we really can’t say that for sure.
LSU is definitely elite on offense, though. Jayden Daniels, their quarterback, is a Heisman contender. He might be the best quarterback in the country, honestly. He’s definitely a lot better than JJ MCCARTHY. He’s what Jalen Milroe could’ve been if somebody at Alabama had actually bothered to develop him.
LSU is going to be by far the toughest test the Alabama defense has faced since the Texas game. I feel like we go through this every year, where people talk about Bama like they have the best defense in the country, and then go up against a team with a legit QB and NFL wide receivers and just get cooked.
Those are the types of teams that beat Bama. LSU is exactly the type of offense that can and probably will have a ton of success on that Bama defense. Not only do they have Jayden Daniels, they also have a first round receiver in Malik Nabers–dude is a baller. Mason Taylor is a really solid tight end–they’ve got some real dudes on that offense. I mean, it’s LSU–they always have a top-10 roster.
The question is whether they’re going to be able to level that defense up in time for the Alabama game. Again, everybody has been having their way with this LSU defense so far: they let up 45 to FSU, 31 to Arkansas, 55 to Ole Miss, 39 to Missouri. It’s been brutal.
But a lot can change over the course of the season in college football. Teams change significantly throughout the course of the season. LSU has talented players on their defense, it’s just a matter of putting it all together and having a coordinator that adapts the scheme to the players.
I don’t want to get too much into this game, but my power ratings like LSU to beat Bama even in Tuscaloosa.
I’ll get more into this game next week.
Florida-Georgia Quick Preview
I’m going to just do this really quickly because I’ve written a lot this week about the Michigan scandal and I’m kind of on fumes here.
What I’ve seen from Georgia this year:
- Underrated pass catchers. It’s not just Brock Bowers. They have a lot of athletes on the perimeter and Beck likes to spread the ball around to them.
- Beck is an underrated quarterback. We don’t hear much about him in the national landscape but he’s accurate, poised, makes good reads, throws a nice looking ball. Not perfect, but it’s forgivable as a first year starter. Unpopular opinion: he’s better than JJ McCarthy.
- Very good offensive line.
- Defensively, not super impressed with their pass rush outside of obvious passing situations.
- Front seven isn’t as ferocious as it’s been in the past couple of years. Not bad by any stretch–this is still a top 10 defense in the nation without question, but the past couple years it’s been top 2. The difference is noticeable.
What I’ve seen from Florida this year:
- I saw them beat Tennessee and then look pretty mid in their other games.
- They’re offensively challenged but pretty good on defense.
- Graham Mertz is better than I thought he’d be.
But the main thing this game hinges on is how well Georgia will be able to weather the Brock Bowers injury. I think they’ll still win this game but they won’t be as effective on offense.
And that’s my main thing here: Georgia is a stupidly talented roster. Losing Brock Bowers does not ruin their season. The same way we saw Ohio State beat Penn State without Henderson, Egbuka and Burke, Georgia can absolutely beat Florida without Bowers. When you have a top-3 roster in the country, you have depth that almost nobody else has. You’re able to weather injuries better than everyone else.
Eventually Georgia will probably find themselves in a game where they are really missing Brock Bowers, and their offense is noticeably worse than it would be without him. And it’s possible Georgia loses that game.
But I don’t think this will be that game. I don’t think Florida is good enough to really push Georgia to the limit, and to a place where it’s like, “They need Brock Bowers to win this game.” The only game on their schedule I could possibly see going that was is Bama in the SEC Championship–for that game, Georgia will need all hands on deck. But not Florida.
Florida isn’t a bad team. They’re 5-2 and I have them ranked 33rd in the nation in my power ratings. This is not some cupcake game for Georgia. But at the same time, I really don’t think Georgia will have to empty the clip and pull out all the stops to beat Florida. This is not the game where the Brock Bowers injury is going to cost Georgia dearly.
I’m going to say Georgia wins the game 27-13. I don’t think Florida will have much success offensively against this Georgia defense, which we have seen really step up and be lights out at times this season. I don’t think Georgia’s defense is as good as it was last year, definitely not as good as it was in 2021, but it’s still a Kirby Smart defense with elite talent.
I always say that Georgia is a non-Tryhard team, where they pick and choose which games they really get up for. They are going to really get up for this one, I have no doubt about that. We will not see the sleepwalking Georgia team in this game.
I’ve got Georgia as 22 points better than Florida on a neutral field, but that does not take into account the Bowers injury. I think Georgia wins convincingly, but maybe not dominantly.
Fade the Public 