College pass attempts: 1,685

Straight up: I just love the arm talent.

I know about the injury history, but this guy throws a beautiful deep ball. Other than CJ Stroud, I can’t really think of another recent college quarterback that has thrown a better deep ball. You’d have to go back to Joe Burrow, I think.

I don’t know why Penix is suddenly plummeting on draft boards. He measured in with 10.5” hands which is obviously not the be all, end all, but it certainly helps a lot. Those are some massive mitts. And he’s 6’2”, which is definitely more than tall enough for the NFL. Bryce Young is 5’9″ and went #1 overall so I don’t want to hear it.

Michael Penix just has an incredible arm, and he checks a heck of a lot of boxes. Period.

Is he a perfect prospect? Certainly not. I think the NFL may be spooked by his history of knee injuries, which is valid, but he did pass his medical evals. And since he got to Washington in 2022, he played all of his games. 13 in 2022, 15 in 2023. Didn’t miss one.

If all that’s not good enough for you, Penix ran between a 4.45 and 4.56 at his pro day! Dude has got wheels. That was a surprise for sure, because we’ve been led to believe Penix has the knees of a 75 year old man with arthritis.

In terms of character, he’s an A+ kid. Been through a lot of adversity and injury in his career; he’s humble, his teammates love him and go to war for him.

He’s the best downfield thrower in the draft, in my opinion. Yes, he definitely needs to get better on the short and intermediate stuff, but when I look at all the things he brings to the table, I just don’t understand why the NFL is so low on him.

Penix might not even be a first round pick at all, they’re saying.

I just don’t get it.

The one thing I’ve been hearing is that in the National Championship game, Michigan made an effort to take away all the deep stuff and force him to throw underneath, and he simply couldn’t do it.

That’s not really what I took away from rewatching that game. Now, he definitely did have some bad moments in that game, but the stuff that really stood out to me was on the downfield throws that he’s made a hundred times before. I’ve made a short compilation of the most back-breaking plays for Washington from that game, and what I’m seeing is Penix missing a lot of throws that he normally makes.

Now this is a collection of plays and not all of them are on Penix, but he definitely shoulders a lot of the blame for that game. It was very winnable for Washington, their defense stepped up big time after getting taken to the cleaners early on–Penix just couldn’t deliver.

Washington fans, you may want to just skip over this video; it’s painful.

The Penix we saw against Michigan was not even close to the Penix we saw against Texas. Maybe part of that was because Michigan just had a better secondary, and a better defense overall, than Texas did.

In fact, I think Washington was a terrible matchup for Texas, but Texas would’ve matched up very well against Michigan. Kind of a paper beats rock beats scissors beats rock thing. Texas on defense, their strength was their front–those two monstrous tackles, kind of like Michigan. Only Michigan’s secondary was way better than the Longhorn secondary, which actually was quite average. Washington was a terrible matchup for the Texas defense, but Michigan, because they were stronger on the backend and were stout on the lines of scrimmage, made for a bad matchup for Washington. I think Texas would have fared much better against Michigan than Washington did, but unfortunately they didn’t match up well with Washington. Styles make fights, I guess.

My impression in the immediate aftermath of the National Title game was that Penix simply shit the bed, the moment was too big for him, he over-thought it and played poorly because of the moment. That may have been the case, however I’d be remiss if I didn’t give the Michigan defensive front a lot of credit for making him uncomfortable for large stretches of that game. I really think that had a lot more to do with it than simply Penix shitting the bed. I think the constant pressure from the Michigan front had him rattled and off his game, and that had a lot to do with him missing throws. I thought Michigan completely owned the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball–Washington did not match up with them really at all. It was lopsided, and maybe that explains why Penix played so uncharacteristically poorly.

So I don’t want to put too much stock into that game. Yes, it was extremely important. Yes, it was highly visible and the most recent game we have so it sticks in our minds. But it’s not the be-all, end-all for him. I also heard somewhere that he got hurt in the game and stayed in. Something about a lower abdomen injury. I don’t remember that from the National Title game, but then again I wasn’t glued to the TV the entire time so it’s entirely possible I missed it, or just forgot.

Now, the throwing motion isn’t perfect, maybe it’s not even pretty. But that’s also potentially just because he’s a lefty, and lefties look weird in general throwing the ball. Remember when everyone thought Tua had a bad throwing motion, but then someone on Twitter took a highlight tape of his and flipped it so it looked like he was throwing righty, and it looked great? That might be the case with Penix as well. His throwing motion might be perfectly fine, it just looks weird because he’s a lefty.

Actually, when I watch Penix play, I think he has a pretty damn quick release. I just pulled up the Pac 12 championship game and Penix was out there slinging absolute darts. His release is lightning quick, honestly. And when you contrast him with Bo Nix, I think Penix is clearly and undeniably the better QB.

In the CFP game against Texas, Penix was even better. He was raining bombs left and right. I mean just laying waste to that Texas secondary. There was one throw he had to Polk where it was probably 55-56 yards in the air with perfect placement. His deep ball is just unreal, and I think the NFL is seriously sleeping on him.

And he puts some zip on the ball, too. When he has to, he can really fire it in there. But he also has the ability to put great touch on the ball. He’ll fit it into tight windows, and it feels like his speciality is that near endzone corner over a defender into a perfect window, in stride–he did it so many times. It’s an insanely difficult throw, and I really don’t think the other QBs in this draft can make a lot of those throws. Shit, a lot of NFL QBs can’t make those throws he was making.

Just pull up his highlight reel; there are some absolutely filthy throws in there. I thought I knew how good his arm was before writing this, but when I actually went back and rewatched the tape, I came away even more impressed. His arm is truly special. Except for in the Natty.

Now, it is true that most of it was downfield and Penix doesn’t have a lot of short and intermediate throws, but I think he can learn that stuff. What he does have already, though, in that downfield accuracy–that’s something you can’t teach, and it’s truly special.

One thing I also will say is something we all know, but it really hit home while rewatching his tape: his receivers were just incredible this year. We all know about Rome Odunze, and a lot of people are probably aware of Ja’lynn Polk, but McMillan in the few games he played was special as well. Penix was throwing to three absolute studs, and a lot of it was Penix making beautiful throws and making them look good, but they were open quite a bit. 

I don’t want to play the game as to whether Penix or his receivers deserve more credit, because this isn’t First Take or an “Embrace Debate™” soundbite media situation where everything has to be zero sum, but I’ll just say when you have an elite quarterback with three excellent receivers, you go 14-1 and make it all the way to the National Championship game. Right? Penix was amazing, and so were his receivers. That’s why they were so great this past season. It doesn’t have to be one or the other–they can both be excellent.

Honestly, I’m just gonna get to the point here: I think the Dolphins should draft Penix and let Tua sign somewhere else. Penix would be the perfect QB for Miami throwing it deep to Tyreek and Waddle. It’s what he’s built for. To me that would be a match made in heaven, unfortunately I suspect the Dolphins will just play it safe and resign Tua rather than going bold and aggressive and rolling the dice.

Teams are scared to give up a slightly above-average quarterback, even though deep down they know they’re probably not going to win a Super Bowl with him.

Tua is a known quantity–he’s a good quarterback, in fact he even led the league in passing yards this past season. But let’s be honest here: is he a Super Bowl quarterback? Could you really picture him hoisting the Lombardi Trophy with confetti flying all around? I really can’t, personally.

The issue is that Penix could be a complete and total bust. He might be horrible. I don’t think he’ll be horrible, but the fact remains that he could be. And the Dolphins know Tua isn’t. The Dolphins are a playoff team with Tua, but with Penix, they could very well be a bottom-five team in the league.

So I get why they’d pass on this or consider it too risky. But I also think, like, if you’re not winning a Super Bowl with Tua, move on. Just move on. They might think they have a lot to lose right now, but do they really? If Penix completely bombs, all you’re really missing out on is a few first round playoff exits. Big whoop. If Penix is ass, then you just bottom out and draft another quarterback like Julian Sayin in a few years.

Another thing: paying a decent quarterback is not without risk. It doesn’t just maintain the status quo. It changes your entire salary cap calculus. Your whole roster construction philosophy will have to change once you go from your QB having a $23 million cap hit to a $50-60 million cap hit. At that point you’d better be damn sure the quarterback you just paid is capable of carrying a lesser roster. Because if he’s not, you’re fucked.

Tua is coming up on a big contract, potentially this offseason in the next few months. I don’t think it’s smart to pay him, for one because while I like him, I just don’t think he’s a Super Bowl quarterback. And second, with his history of concussions, the guy’s career could be over in an instant. I guess technically the same is true for any player, but it’s especially so with Tua. He just feels particularly fragile.

You draft Penix, what it does is reset your salary clock. You will get a dirt-cheap young QB for at least the next 3 years, possibly 4 if he doesn’t set the world on fire.

But overall, I just think Penix’s skillset is a perfect match for Miami.

Pick 21, come on Mike McDaniel: make the call. Tell Tua it’s been real, but we’re going in another direction. Penix is 24 years old, he’s a grown man, and most of all, he can sling it deep. Let him just air that shit out to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and we’ll so who in the NFL can stop them.

Tua is a nice quarterback, but with him you’re not fully taking advantage of the speed you have at wide receiver. Tua’s speciality isn’t the deep ball, it’s more of the short and intermediate stuff where he is incredibly accurate and has great timing. He’s obviously able to get the ball to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle quite well–and Hill led the league in receiving yards with nearly 1,800–but not to the extent that Penix could. Penix, if he pans out, could really unlock their potential in a major way. That offense would be unstoppable.

And yes, again, Penix was pretty awful in the National Championship game. He missed a lot of throws and to be honest, he was the main reason they lost. He really shit the bed in that game, and it’s hard to get that out of my mind. But enough time has passed, and the rest of his tape is just so damn good that I’m willing to give him a pass for it. Obviously it was a really bad time to have his worst game, but his overall tape was just so filthy. I can’t let one game overshadow the guy’s entire career. I just can’t.

When I look at Penix, I see a guy with maturity, leadership and character. He’s got an absolutely incredible arm and his downfield throwing is world-class–it’s an elite trait, and that’s what you’re looking for in the draft. You want to find quarterbacks with elite traits. Penix shocked us all with 4.4-4.5 speed, he’s got near-prototypical size at 6’2” and 216 lbs. He’s got 10.5” hands.

What, exactly, is not to like about this kid? 

I wanted to really figure that out, and this video kind of rips him apart. A lot of it was from the USC game specifically, but not all of it, and basically the gist is that his receivers bailed him out frequently because he doesn’t put great touch on his deep passes, he doesn’t take advantage of leverage, and his ball placement needs quite a bit of work. Additionally, the evaluator who made the video doesn’t like his footwork in the pocket and points out that he often throws from his back foot rather than stepping up and into throws, driving the ball down the field. When you rely too much on your arm rather than throwing with your legs and your whole body, you tend to see inaccurate throws and poor ball placement.

The video also got into Penix’s struggles with layering throws, and provided a few examples to back the claim up, but to me that criticism fell a bit flat because I can pull up plenty of plays where he layers the ball beautifully.

The conclusion was, essentially, that Penix is like a designated hitter in baseball. It’s a lot of home runs, but also a lot of strikeouts–a lot of boom or bust. He relies too much on the long ball, when in reality, being an NFL QB is much less glamorous than that–you have to be able to hit singles and doubles, you can’t just be swinging for the fences all the time. The video says that 65% of NFL throws are 0-10 yards down the field.

The criticism in the video may have been overly harsh, but I do think there’s a lot of validity to what the guy was saying. If you look past the highlight reel and get a fuller picture of Michael Penix Jr. as a quarterback, it’s not all perfect.

“Sure there are some incredible throws where he demonstrates rare arm strength, and at times good accuracy. But iso balls to elite receivers against college cornerbacks is not the primary thing you can put on film to prove you can excel in the NFL.”

So maybe this is why the NFL isn’t super high on him–they see him as over-reliant on the deep ball.

I don’t know. On the one hand, you’ve got a deep ball thrower like Penix, and then you have a guy like Bo Nix who overwhelmingly threw it underneath and relied on receiver YAC. I’d much rather have the guy that can throw it deep and has to learn the underneath stuff.

Overall, I am a big fan of Michael Penix Jr. I think he’s an awesome prospect, and in my view, he’s kind of in a class of his own. To me, the tiers are as follows:

1. Generational: Caleb Williams
2. Would be #1 picks any other year: Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels
3. Potential to be very good, situation-dependent: Michael Penix
4. ~CLEAR GAP~
5. Should not be drafted in the first round: McCarthy, Nix

With Penix, I think there are enough weaknesses and holes in his game where I just can’t justify putting him ahead of Maye or Daniels. I know it sounds like I am buying all the Penix stock on the market, but I do acknowledge he’s got some holes in his game.

And when I’m drafting a quarterback inside the top-5, I don’t want any holes. I don’t want any question marks. I have the right to be picky if I’m drafting that high. NFL teams are not in the business of spending top-5 draft picks on projects, or guys who will need a great supporting cast. Penix will need a great supporting cast.

The top-5 of the draft is reserved for Franchise Savior-level players. If I’m drafting a QB at #1 overall, he had better be Peyton Fucking Manning. He’d better be a guy who is going to turn a 3-14 team into a playoff team in 1-2 years tops. He’d better have no question marks at all.

I have the right to be picky like that if I’m drafting that high.

It was a long time ago when he was drafted, and he’s already retired, but when I think of a top-5 pick, I think of a guy like Joe Thomas back in 2007. When he was drafted, he was a slam dunk. Everybody knew he would be a perennial All Pro left tackle, probably a Hall of Famer if he stayed healthy–he was simply a bust-proof prospect. Everybody knew it. Everybody knew he was a great kid–basically a perfect prospect. There was no way, barring injury, that he could fail in the NFL.

Another guy like that, from that same year: Adrian Peterson. And Patrick Willis the linebacker from Ole Miss who played for the 49ers. Actually, Calvin Johnson went in that draft, too. He was another Perfect Prospect–unless he got hurt, there was no way he turned into a bust. (2007 was an incredible draft class despite Jamarcus Russell at the top–it’s already produced five Hall of Famers in the first 14 picks. The other guy was Darrelle Revis, and Adrian Peterson will undoubtedly be in the Hall of Fame as soon as he’s eligible for it.)

That’s what I want if I’m spending a top-5 pick in the draft. I want Joe Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Darrelle Revis, Patrick Willis. Maybe that’s unrealistic to expect every year, given that the first round of the 2006 draft has so far produced zero Hall of Famers. 2007 was an uncharacteristically excellent draft at the top end, and not every draft has those surefire Hall of Famers.

If that’s the case, then I want the next-best thing. I want a surefire All Pro player.

My point here is, I don’t want question marks if I’m drafting that high. I don’t want a project, I don’t want potential–I want certainty, or as close to it as you can get me.

That’s why I wouldn’t draft Michael Penix in the top-5. I like him a lot, but I’m not under any illusions that he’s this perfect prospect. In fact, I don’t even know if I’d draft him in the top-10. There’s a lot of players in the draft at other positions I’d rather have over him. I’d rather have Marvin Harrison, Caleb Williams, Joe Alt, Dallas Turner, Brock Bowers, maybe Malik Nabers (it’s close), Fuaga the offensive tackle from Oregon State. And I would take both Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels over Penix because I think they have more paths to success.

Like how in the Avengers movie where Dr. Strange views 14 million or whatever it is different timelines, and out of all 14 million possible scenarios, only one of them actually results in them defeating Thanos. I just think Maye and Daniels have more potential paths to greatness. Out of 100, I’d say Maye has, just ballparking it, 50-55 scenarios where he becomes a top-10 QB. Daniels I’d say like 40-45.

With Penix it’s more like 30-35 scenarios out of 100 where he becomes a top-10 NFL quarterback.

It doesn’t seem like great odds, but it’s relative. For instance, as high as I am on Caleb Williams, I don’t think he’s any higher than like 70-75. Those are still great odds, but with quarterbacks it’s very hard to be certain. After all, he’s going to the Chicago Bears so that alone knocks off like 15-20 “scenarios.”

I don’t think I would ever put a quarterback north of 90 just because there are more variables with that position than any other. (Marvin Harrison Jr., on the other hand, is like a 90-95 that he becomes a top-7ish receiver. There’s almost no chance he’s not at least good in the NFL.)

For what it’s worth, I would’ve put Trevor Lawrence at around 65-70 out of 100. So I do think Caleb is a better prospect than Lawrence was. I wasn’t as high on Lawrence as the consensus was, although I did think he was the definite #1 pick in 2021.

The best you’re going to get out of a quarterback is like 80-85, and the only QB in my lifetime I’d put at that level is Andrew Luck, who I thought was a slam dunk, as did everyone else. Luck was as close to a guarantee as you’re going to find at the QB position. Peyton Manning, I was very young when he got drafted so I can’t really say what I would’ve graded him at as a prospect.

Joe Burrow is another guy I would’ve had in that 75-80 range. I thought he was a slam-dunk as well. I thought he was just perfect–character and leadership off the charts, insane production in college, size, great arm, athleticism, and just everything about him said “Franchise Quarterback.”

(For what it’s worth, I would have graded CJ Stroud at about a 60-65. Character was off the charts, college production was not only elite but elite from a young age, arm talent and ball placement were off the charts, size, athleticism was there, but there were some questions, valid or not, about whether the Ohio State system made him or vice versa, and I was concerned about whether or not he could take an NFL beating and still hang in there mentally.)

Anyway, I don’t think Michael Penix has that Franchise Savior-level upside. Only Caleb Williams does in this draft, in my opinion. Maye and Jayden Daniels are a notch below that, and then Penix is a notch below them.

That just means I think Michael Penix’s success will be heavily dependent on the situation he falls into. This dude needs weapons around him. He needs an offensive line and a coach that can maximize his talents. Put him on the Raiders with Davante Adams, I can dig that.

Put him on the Seahawks with DK Metcalf, JSN and Tyler Lockett? Oh, baby. Now we’re talking.

Miami is another amazing fit for him, as I’ve already discussed. I’d love to see that happen.

The potential is there for Michael Penix Jr. It’s got to be the right fit, and it’s got to be a team with pieces. I don’t see him as a guy that you could put on, say, Washington, or the Patriots, and he’d have them in the playoffs within the next 2 years. Penix isn’t good enough to do that on his own.

But he could definitely be plugged in on a team with some pieces and turn them into a perennial playoff squad. I do believe that.

Fortunately for him, where the league has him valued right now, if he goes in the first round, he’ll be going to a team that has some pieces. He’s not going to a shit pile franchise with a bare cupboard, assuming he doesn’t fall to the second round.

So I think in this light, Penix is set up pretty well. I think he’s going to surprise people.