We’re just going to get into this now because it’s the summer and not much else is going on, but also because this is definitely going to become a topic of conversation in November as the playoff races in college football get interesting.

The 5th seed is the most desirable playoff position in the current format.

When you really get into it and drill down into how this thing actually works, there’s a lot that’s screwed up and backwards and unsustainable, like the fact that the SEC and Big Ten runners-up will undoubtedly be better teams than whoever comes out of the Big 12, but will get lower seeds. But perhaps the most broken part of the new playoff format is that it’s actually better to not get a bye.

To make it easier to understand, let’s get a visual going:

The top four seeds go to the four highest-ranked conference champions. So you have to be a conference champion to get a bye. Likely it will be the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 Champions occupying the top four seeds, so let’s just say it’s Georgia, Ohio State, Florida State and Utah that get byes, in that order.

However, there is still one more automatic playoff berth in the field, because it’s the FIVE highest-ranked conference champions. And since there are only four power conferences (really two, but whatever), that means the fifth automatic berth team will pretty much always be a G5 team, unless there’s a year where the Big 12 is just a complete shitshow and everybody goes 8-4, while, say, Liberty goes 13-0 and is ranked higher than the Big 12 champion.

But let’s just assume Liberty goes undefeated this year and gets the 5th seed, but they’re ranked in like the high teens or 20s, so they become the 12th seed. For reference, Liberty in 2023 went 13-0, made it to the Fiesta Bowl and played Oregon, and Oregon won 45-6.

That’s the team you get to play as the 5th seed. You get a team like Liberty as your prize for being the 5th seed.

The 5-11 seeds are going to be populated with teams like Texas, Oregon, Michigan, Alabama, Ole Miss, Penn State and Notre Dame, most likely. And let’s just say it’s in that order, so Texas gets the 5th seed, Oregon gets the 6th seed, Michigan gets the 7th seed, Alabama gets the 8th seed, Ole Miss the 9th seed, Notre Dame the 10th, Penn State 11th.

Texas is the big winner of that pool of at-large teams, by a mile. They get to play Liberty.

Oregon, as the 6th seed, has to play Penn State.

Michigan has to play Notre Dame in the 7-10 matchup.

Alabama and Ole Miss are the 8-9 matchup.

But Texas gets to play Liberty.

Actually, it’s even better than that: Texas gets to host Liberty, because remember, the opening round games are on campus. So Liberty goes down to Texas and gets their doors blown off; it’s a nice warmup game for the Longhorns.

Okay, you’re probably wondering, “That’s it? That’s why it’s better to have the 5th seed? Because you get to play a G5 team? That’s still not better than a bye!”

You’re right, it’s not better than a bye. Even though Texas is like 99.9% to beat Liberty, it’s still not as certain as a bye, which is 100%.

But it’s once we get to the next round where the advantage of the 5th seed becomes even greater. Because the 5th seed has to then play the 4th seed at a neutral site.

And the 4th seed is likely to be the Big 12 Champion, which this year is projected to be Utah according to a media poll. Other contenders are K-State, Oklahoma State and Kansas.

Texas is going to be favored against any of those teams, heavily.

So that’s the 5th seed’s path to the semifinals right there: Liberty at home, and then the Big 12 Champion at a neutral site.

That’s pretty nice.

Now let’s compare that to the #1 seed. They get a bye, so that’s great. But then they have to play the winner of the 8-9 game, which is Alabama vs. Ole Miss. Let’s say Bama wins.

So if Georgia is the #1 seed, their first playoff game is against Alabama.

The 2nd seed, Ohio State, their first playoff game will be against the winner of Michigan-Notre Dame. Ohio State could have a rematch with Michigan in the first playoff game.

Now, by the semifinals–when it’s down to four teams–the whole easy path thing is done. There’s no more easy path, because for Texas, assuming they beat Utah, their opponent in the semifinal is either going to be Georgia or Alabama.

But in my opinion, the 5th seed has a MUCH easier path to the semifinal than the #1 seed. Texas has Liberty and Utah, while Georgia would have a bye, then Alabama.

No matter how you slice it, you’re going to have to play some tough teams in the semifinals and the National Championship. There’s no getting around that, but the 5th seed is by far the easiest path to actually getting to the semifinal.

The second round matchup is typically going to be much easier for the 5-seed than it will be for the top three seeds.

And I think that’s an inherent flaw in the way this playoff is structured. The 5th seed basically has a cakewalk to the semifinal, and thus it might actually be better to lose your conference championship game if you go into it undefeated and #1 in the rankings. Because then you’ll probably fall to the 5th seed, right?

If I’m Georgia and I’m #1, 12-0 going into the SEC Championship game, I may actually think about resting my starters in that game because then I probably fall to the 5th seed. You can’t be one of the top-4 seeds unless you’re a conference champion, so the 5th seed will pretty much always be the best non-conference champion.

The first round bye is actually fool’s gold in this system. Yes, you get a bye, and that’s great, but after the bye, you would much rather be in the position the 5-seed is in.

Now, I don’t think this is some great big problem and teams are going to be in a tank-off with one another for the 5th seed. Like I don’t think we’ll see undefeated Ohio State and undefeated Georgia both tanking in their conference championship games to jockey for the 5th seed. I don’t think it will as overt as that, but I’m sure coaches will raise a stink about how it’s better to have the 5th seed than a bye.

And that will have to be rectified, because teams are supposed to WANT the byes. You’re supposed to want the higher seeds.

More than that, you are supposed to be REWARDED for getting a higher seed.

That’s what makes the regular season matter, after all.

Right now, we’ve got a completely perverse system.

Ohio State’s most ideal path this year is going 12-0 in the regular season, beating Oregon on the road, but then losing to them in the Big Ten Championship, because that would likely get Ohio State the 5th seed.

And that’s just silly. Teams should be incentivized to win every game they play.

I don’t know what the fix is, either. Let’s say you re-seed the teams after each round, and instead of being a fixed bracket, the #1 seed now gets to play the lowest-remaining seed in the field. That still doesn’t fix anything because it doesn’t change the fact that 4 will still play the 5th seed.

The system is assuming that the 4th seed, as a conference champion, will typically be stronger than the 5th seed, a non-conference champion. But because of how concentrated the power is in the SEC and Big Ten, and only one team can win each conference, there’s going to be a ton of really good teams as at-large bids.

I wonder if you changed it so that the top-four conference champions don’t get byes automatically, but instead just get automatic berths, and the byes go to the top four highest ranked teams, regardless of whether they win their conference or not. So let’s say it’s all SEC and Big Ten teams in the top four, you have Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Oregon, and they all get byes.

The 5 seed would get to play Liberty first, but then instead of getting to play Utah or K-State or Oklahoma State, they would have to play Oregon or Texas, or some other really strong team. I think this might have to be the move, because for one thing, it takes away the possibility that like a 9-3 conference champion gets a bye and then becomes food for the 5th seed in the second round.

But it also makes it so that every second round matchup for the non-bye teams is tough, so then at this point, all you’re concerned with is getting one of those top four seeds, so that you get a bye. Sure, the 5th seed will still be the best of the at-large seeds (5 through 12), but although playing Liberty in the first round is far preferable to playing, say, Penn State in the 6 vs. 11 matchup, it’s still not better than getting a bye. Because nobody can get hurt during a bye; your players can still get hurt playing Liberty, even if you’re winning 42-3.

I think that’s the fix: just give the four byes to the four highest-ranked teams. Screw all the conference champion stuff. We don’t have four power conferences anymore. We have two. So giving the top four conference champions byes just feels very nonsensical to me.

But as it stands, the 5th seed will likely have by far the easiest path to the semifinals.