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Fade the Public

Author: Austin

Big sports guy.

Where is the Break-Even Point in Sports Betting?

Now that sports gambling has been legalized in several states in the US, people are flocking to apps like Draft Kings and Fan Duel sportsbooks. Sports betting is exploding in the US more than ever before, as it is now accessible to anyone with a smartphone. Stocks like DKNG, PENN and the sports betting catch-all… Read More Where is the Break-Even Point in Sports Betting?

December 19, 2020 AustinLeave a comment

Is Justin Herbert the Best Rookie QB Ever?

Watching last night’s Chargers-Raiders game, I had to keep reminding myself that Justin Herbert is a rookie. He looks like a perennial top-5 QB who has been in the league 7-8 years. Look at his highlight reel from last night: He’s making throws that rookies don’t normally make. Normally, with rookie and even 2nd/3rd year… Read More Is Justin Herbert the Best Rookie QB Ever?

December 18, 2020December 21, 2020 AustinLeave a comment

Is Clemson a Lock to Beat Notre Dame?

Heading into Saturday’s ACC Championship game between Clemson and Notre Dame, the consensus seems to be that Clemson has this one in the bag. And they have a lot going for them in favor of that assumption: They have the consensus #1 overall NFL draft pick for 2021 in Trevor Lawrence. They didn’t have Lawrence… Read More Is Clemson a Lock to Beat Notre Dame?

December 16, 2020December 20, 2020 Austin3 Comments

NFL Week 15 Matchups: Statistical Advantages & Betting Lines

Now that I’ve created a statistical ranking system, I want to use it to analyze weekly matchups and see if it’s able to be predictive. My numbers are not meant to translate into points. So “advantage” +/- does not translate into what the line should be. It’s a measure of how far above or below… Read More NFL Week 15 Matchups: Statistical Advantages & Betting Lines

December 16, 2020December 19, 2020 AustinLeave a comment

Week 14 NFL Statistical Rankings

I have made some tweaks to the system which I want to quickly go over: Doubled the importance of win %. I wanted the rankings to be as objective as possible, meaning the various statistical categories would not be weighted against one another subjectively and according to my own personal biases. But I did feel… Read More Week 14 NFL Statistical Rankings

December 16, 2020December 18, 2020 AustinLeave a comment

Giannis Signs 5yr/$228m Supermax Extension With Bucks

Just in: Shams has the contract details. And actually, if you look at the timestamps on both tweets, Shams broke the news before Giannis himself did: So he’s staying in Milwaukee after all. The contract has a player option after the 4th year. At that time Giannis will be 30 years old. So Milwaukee is… Read More Giannis Signs 5yr/$228m Supermax Extension With Bucks

December 15, 2020 AustinLeave a comment

Week 14 Power Rankings: Game of the Year Edition

The Monday Night Epic in Cleveland just concluded. The Ravens ended up winning 47-42 and improbably covering the -3 spread on a safety at the end after the Browns tried to pull off the ol’ Stanford-Cal miracle. I’m sure it swung a ton of money in Vegas. That’s the clubhouse leader for 2020 NFL Game… Read More Week 14 Power Rankings: Game of the Year Edition

December 15, 2020December 16, 2020 AustinLeave a comment

Are the Chiefs Unbeatable?

At 12-1 this season and 21-1 in their past 22 games including their Super Bowl run, it might be time to ask the question: are the Kansas City Chiefs unbeatable right now? People might not be impressed by the final score of their win over the Dolphins yesterday, 33-27, but keep in mind that the… Read More Are the Chiefs Unbeatable?

December 14, 2020 AustinLeave a comment

NFL Week 14 Instant Reactions

We’ve still got Browns-Ravens on Monday night so I’m going to wait til Tuesday to do the power rankings. 🌋 Chiefs Are the Warriors of the NFL The Chiefs looked atrocious in the first quarter. Mahomes had 2 picks and at one point got sacked for a -30 yard loss. The Dolphins got out to… Read More NFL Week 14 Instant Reactions

December 14, 2020December 14, 2020 AustinLeave a comment

College Football Needs an 8-Team Playoff

The Big Ten has nullified its requirement that you must play at least 6 regular season games in order to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game. This was obviously done to accommodate Ohio State, who has only played 5 games after three of them were canceled due to Covid. Their game against Maryland was… Read More College Football Needs an 8-Team Playoff

December 10, 2020January 7, 2021 AustinLeave a comment

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