I haven’t done my NFL power ratings in a while but we’re back for week 11. The Bills were on top when I last did the ratings (week 7) and they remain on top. They’re just so highly-ranked in virtually every category. Really the only place you can knock them is in strength of schedule, where they rank dead last. And that’s the obvious flaw in their resume here: they’ve put up these incredible numbers, but it’s been against the easiest schedule in the NFL. Still, even after double-weighting strength of schedule, the Bills come out on top:
The surprise team in the top 5: the New England Patriots. They’re back, folks.
The Patriots are 6-4 and Mac Jones seems to be improving by leaps and bounds with each passing week. The Patriots very well could be 7-1 right now, as they had a head-scratching week 1 loss to Miami, they took the Bucs down to the wire but left too much time on the clock, and they went to overtime with the Cowboys. The only legitimate loss the Patriots have is their week 3 28-13 loss to the Saints. That’s it. Their three other losses have come by a combined 9 points.
And the Patriots are only a half-game behind the Bills in the loss column in the AFC East, meaning they still have a great chance of winning their division.
My power ratings still like the Rams despite the back-to-back non-competitive losses to Tennessee and San Fran. Look, it’s just a fact that Kyle Shanahan has straight-up owned Sean McVay over the past several years. The 49ers just have the Rams’ number for whatever reason. I know Stafford has not looked good these past few weeks, but the Rams are still an elite team. I’m not ready to bail on them just yet.
The power ratings do not like the Titans very much, however. It’s just the fact that while they win a bunch of games, they don’t really do anything at an elite level. The one thing you could’ve pointed to was running the ball, but now that they’ve lost Derrick Henry, that’s not so much the case.
“Frauds” is not the right word for the Titans because I don’t think they’re frauds. However, I think it’s likely that they’re not quite as good as their record of 8-2. We might see them come back down to earth a bit going forward, especially with all the injuries they’ve sustained.
After stringing together a few impressive wins, including the 41-14 beatdown in Las Vegas over the Raiders, the Chiefs are creeping back up towards where they probably should be. I definitely think they’re better than the 17th team in the league, but their statistics for the season aren’t pretty.
The three teams my power ratings like a lot more than their records: the Vikings, the Colts and the 49ers.