Quick thoughts on Week 10:

• Bama-LSU: that LSU defense is horrible, although kind of did what I expected in trying to take away the deep ball, but Milroe actually led Bama on some longer drives and did a lot with his legs. Still can’t really take a lot from that because again, the LSU defense is horrible, but Milroe looked really good.
  • I know a lot of people are saying Alabama only won that game because Bama knocked Jayden Daniels out of the game on a dirty hit, and I think that’s definitely the reason LSU’s offense stopped scoring, but they also couldn’t stop the Bama offense at all. Like, literally not at all. Bama was a guaranteed touchdown everytime they stepped on the field.
  • Bama was always going to win that game because they were simply more likely to get a stop on LSU’s offense. One stop and that game was over for LSU, because they were not stopping Bama at all.
• Ohio State needs to figure out how to not just be a second half team. It’s mainly about Kyle McCord. His numbers in the second half are significantly better than his numbers in the first half.
  • Ohio State has arguably the best defense, wide receiver and running back in the country.
• Impressive performance by Georgia beating Mizzou. Mizzou looked overmatched in the second half, but they hung tough for a good chunk of that game. Mizzou has leveled-up as a program. Luther Burden is a beast.
• Texas narrowly escaped K-State. The name of the game is just winning by any means until Quinn Ewers comes back.
• Alex Grinch fired at USC–too little too late.
• My opinion of Washington hasn’t changed. I still think Oregon’s better and should be favored to win the Pac 12.
• Florida State got stuck in the mud against Pitt. Game kind of flew under the radar but I will reiterate that I don’t think Florida State is elite. They’re good, but they’re not elite. Eventually they will run into a brick wall this season, and while it probably won’t be until the playoff, they’re upset-able in the ACC. Somebody can beat them. Maybe even Miami this weekend.
• One last thing: Tre Harris III on Ole Miss is a STUD at receiver. Dude was ballin’ out against Texas A&M. Ole Miss has got some real weapons on offense–Jaxon Dart looks better this year, Quinshon Judkins is one of my favorite players and obviously a stud at running back, and now Tre Harris looks like one of the best receivers in the country.
• Will they be enough to beat Georgia? I can’t predict that. I think Ole Miss could win that game, but Georgia gets the game at home, and really, Ole Miss under Lane Kiffin is the Penn State of the SEC. Penn State can beat everybody in the conference except Ohio State and Michigan. Ole Miss can beat anybody in the SEC except for Alabama and Georgia. Right now, they’re a team with a 10-2 ceiling in my book, just like Penn State. Unless they are able to change the narrative this weekend. I have Georgia favored by about 17 at home.
• And speaking of Penn State changing the narrative, we’ll get to that later.

Week 11 Power Ratings, FTP Top 25:

This is the point in the season where I really start to hate my power ratings. Injuries and attrition are really having an effect on a lot of teams, and the rankings can’t possibly reflect that since they’re just based off of season-long stats. 

Plus, there are teams that were bad early in the season that are now playing a lot better–Oklahoma State is exhibit A of that. Oklahoma State was ranked 74th in my ratings last week; they’ve moved up to 59th this week but it’s still not high enough. Of course the opposite is true–there are teams that were good early in the season and are crap now, notably Maryland which started off 5-0 and is now 5-4, yet I still have them as the 28th best team.

As a result of this, the gambling picks were HORRIBLE last week. Just horrible. They went just 7-17 against the spread last week, dropping the season-long winning percentage down to 52.38% which is exactly at the breakeven point for profitability in sports betting (technically the breakeven point is 52.381%, and that’s exactly where I am right now with a record of 66-60-1 ATS).

So I’m not confident about the gambling picks for this week after how last week went, but then again, in betting, you’re going to have great weeks, you’re going to have average weeks, and then you’re going to have some weeks where it’s just a bloodbath and you feel like you’re straight up cursed.

The key to betting is to preserve your bankroll so that a cold streak doesn’t bankrupt you. Pro bettors rarely risk more than 1-2% of their total bankroll on a single bet unless it’s a screaming smash play, which is why they determine their bet size in terms of units–1 unit play, 2 unit play, 3 unit play, etc. A unit is your typical bet size–if you typically bet $20 whenever you bet on a game, then that would mean $20 is one unit for you. A one unit play is $20, a 2 unit play is $40, etc. Pro bettors calculate their unit size based on percentage of total bankroll, so if your bankroll is $1000, a one unit play for you would be $10. But most casual bettors don’t actually know what their bankroll is–they don’t set aside money to bet with, so a unit for them is just their typical bet size.

For the sake of clarity, every bet recommendation I put out here is a one-unit play. But again, the key to betting is long-term profitability and preserving bankroll. It’s not a matter of laying it all on Ole Miss as an underdog this weekend and praying that they win and you hit the jackpot. That’s not smart sports betting; that’s just playing the lottery, essentially. That’s roulette. 

Seriously, you’re better off just going to a casino and playing roulette if you’re an all-or-nothing bettor like that–it’s a lot less stressful than watching an entire three and a half hour football game with all the ups and downs than it is to just put it all on red or black, spin the wheel, and know whether you doubled your money or lost it all in a matter of about 20 seconds.

Anyway, here are the picks for this weekend. I dragged ass this week in updating the power ratings and missed the Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, but I’ll include what my picks would’ve been for those games so you can see how good or bad the picks are faring so far this week going into Saturday.

Here’s hoping we bounce back this weekend!

Already off to a pretty decent start going 5-3 in the Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday games. That brought the overall record up to 71-63-1, a 52.99% win rate. So we’re profitable–for now.

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Penn State vs. Michigan Preview and Prediction

From what I’ve seen thus far in the week, it feels like the majority of people are confidently predicting a Michigan win, and I get why. Drew Allar has not really inspired a whole lot of confidence this season, and while Penn State did pour on 27 points against Maryland in the 4th quarter to win that game 51-15, it wasn’t really a super dominating offensive performance by Penn State. Still only 6.3 yards per pass attempt–Allar had 240 yards on 25/34, with 4 TDs. Most of those 4th quarter points Penn State scored were off of short fields as a result of Maryland turnovers.

Allar has only gone over 300 passing yards in a game once this year, week 1 against West Virginia. This past weekend’s game against Maryland was actually the first time since Week 1 Allar threw for more than 210 yards in a game. He’s been disappointing, in my opinion. When you consider the hype he had coming into this season, and you’re talking about a guy who was the #1 QB in the nation in 2022 and the #3 overall recruit, yes, I think it’s fair to say that he’s been disappointing this year.

You’ve also got the fact that Penn State under James Franklin hasn’t traditionally won these games. I went over it before they played Ohio State, but Franklin is 1-9 against Ohio State and 3-6 against Michigan:

They haven’t beaten Michigan since the Covid season, and prior to that they did beat them in 2019, but then since the Covid year, they’ve lost two straight to Michigan.

However…

Michigan was cheating in both of those years.

Michigan used to be a program that Penn State would beat up on pretty regularly. They won 3 of 4 games against Michigan from 2017-2020, but then Michigan started cheating, and all the sudden they started to own Penn State.

So you could operate under the assumption that without Connor Stalions and without cheating, Penn State is as good if not a better football program than Michigan is. Again, they beat Michigan 3 out of 4 years prior to when the cheating really took off.

And Penn State under James Franklin didn’t really fully arrive until 2016. If you remember back to the horrible Sandusky scandal, the whole thing came to light during the 2011 season. Joe Paterno was fired on November 9th, and then in the offseason, the NCAA imposed major sanctions including a 4-year bowl ban, scholarship reductions and massive fines upwards of $60 million, plus another $13 million by the Big Ten.

Penn State was ineligible for the postseason in 2012 and 2013, seasons in which they were surprisingly decent on the field under Bill O’Brien–they went 8-4 in 2012 and 7-5 in 2013. O’Brien left after those two seasons to take the Texans head coaching job, and James Franklin was hired in 2014. Prior to the 2014 season, the NCAA announced that Penn State’s bowl ban would be lifted two years ahead of schedule, and they were eligible for a bowl game that season. They went 7-6 in Franklin’s first season, losing 18-13 to Michigan on the road. That was Brady Hoke’s last season at Michigan before being fired and replaced by Jim Harbaugh.

In 2015, Michigan would beat Penn State 28-16 in State College, and Penn State would again finish 7-6 in Franklin’s second year. 

In 2016, however, things started to really hit their stride under James Franklin in his third season. They started off the season rough: a 33-13 home win over Kent State (16-13 Penn State at halftime), then a 42-39 road loss to a Pitt team that actually wound up being pretty decent that year (they finished 8-5 and had a win over the eventual National Champion, Clemson), then a 34-27 win over a Temple team that also turned out to be pretty good that year (they finished 10-4, and their head coach was none other than Matt Rhule). Then Penn State went on the road and lost 49-10 at Michigan. 

However, from that point on, something changed at Penn State. They beat Minnesota in overtime the following week, then blew out Maryland. The following week, #2 ranked Ohio State came to town and Penn State was able to pull off a comeback win despite being down 21-7 going into the 4th quarter. Penn State would also win the next 5 games in a row, win the Big Ten East, and go into the Big Ten Championship game against #6 Wisconsin on an 8-game winning streak. Penn State was down 28-14 at halftime, but rallied to win the game 38-31 and win the Big Ten.

So after starting 2-2 in the 2016 season, somehow everything just clicked for Penn State and they rallied to finish the year 11-3. They’d lose a thriller in the Rose Bowl to USC, but with the emergence of players like Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin and Trace McSorley, Penn State looked like they were fully back five years after going through probably the most horrific and unspeakable scandals in American history.

In 2017, Penn State would again win 11 games, and this time Franklin would finally beat Michigan, routing the future cheaters 42-13 in Happy Valley. In 2018, Michigan beat Penn State 42-7 in Ann Arbor. 2018 was probably Harbaugh’s best team of the pre-cheating era–either 2018 or 2016.

But in 2019 and 2020, Penn State was again able to beat Michigan. The 2020 game was in Ann Arbor, but there were no fans in the stands so it doesn’t really count as a true road win over Michigan. In my book, Penn State still has not won a true road game in Ann Arbor since 2009.

So I bring all of this up to provide a bit of a backstory, a lens with which to approach this upcoming game. The story of this rivalry since James Franklin got to Penn State has been basically, it took him a few years to really build things up to where they needed to be, but once he did that, Penn State actually kind of took control of the series with Michigan from 2017-2020. Then, Michigan started cheating and retook control of the rivalry over these past two years.

Now that Michigan has been caught and exposed to the world as cheaters, there is going to be a lot of motivation for revenge on that Penn State sideline. Penn State and Michigan have always hated each other, and now with the cheating, it’s like throwing gasoline on the fire. I’m pretty sure James Franklin has never liked Harbaugh (he wouldn’t be the only one), but now that he knows Harbaugh cheated him the past couple of years, there’s got to be a feeling of downright contempt. Franklin has been one of the few Big Ten coaches to comment on the cheating scandal–he has not been shy about doing so, and although more and more Big Ten coaches are joining him in making public comments, Franklin was the first and I think it shows you that he has got a major beef to settle with Harbaugh.

And not only will Penn State be extra motivated to win this game and expose the cheaters as frauds, they’ve got a lot of people around the Big Ten and around the country that will be pulling for them. Look, the Big Ten is really a three-team conference–it’s Ohio State, Penn State and the Cheaters. Everyone else in the conference doesn’t really have a chance to put Michigan in their place, but Penn State is the first team that Michigan faces this year that can actually look them eye to eye. You know every team in the Big Ten is pulling for Penn State.  You saw how Purdue’s coach Ryan Walters gave Harbaugh the cold shoulder after the game–that’s how everyone else in the Big Ten views it, too. They say coaching is a fraternity, and Harbaugh, who was never the most popular guy in that fraternity to begin with, broke the code. In the eyes of the other 13 programs in the conference, Michigan is dead to them. Dirty, rotten, lousy, no-good, lying-ass cheaters.

On top of all this, this story has gone national. Everyone out there wants Michigan to catch a fade, especially the College Football Playoff committee. They would love for Michigan to lose, that way they can just hammer them in the rankings, point to their pathetic strength of schedule, and not have to worry about the nationwide outrage that would ensue from putting Michigan into the playoff if they are able to go undefeated and win the Big Ten. The CFP committee doesn’t want to have to take a stand on this either way; they would just prefer if Michigan loses a game or two and the problem takes care of itself. If you think people are pissed right now, wait until Michigan takes one of the four playoff spots from a team that didn’t cheat. Hoooo boy will whoever the coach of that hypothetical team is be LIVID. The CFP committee wants to avoid that, and a Penn State win would answer their prayers.

Michigan fans and players are pretending like this is some extra motivation for them, and that they’re embracing the “villain role,” but it’s kind of hard to play the “Everyone is hating on us!” card when that hatred is 100% warranted. They cheated, they got caught, they’re being treated like pariahs, and they deserve it. This ain’t bulletin board material–you cheated and everyone rightly despises you.

I promise you, the teams that Michigan cheated are far more upset about this than Michigan is. So you better believe James Franklin is gonna have his boys ready to go–this is personal now. Think about all the seniors who graduated last year that missed out on a potential chance to go to the playoff because Michigan cheated. Think about the guys whose draft stocks potentially suffered, and the money they missed out on, because of how badly that game against Michigan went last year. Those rotten bastards STOLE from us, and they’re gonna fuckin’ pay us back WITH INTEREST!

You know that’s what these players are hearing all week. Meanwhile, how the hell can Michigan play the “chip on the shoulder” card here? They cheated, and they know it. If anything Michigan’s confidence is lower because they no longer have their ace in the hole.

So there is a lot riding on this game, to say the least. They’re the first team this season that really has a chance to bring those cheating bastards to justice, and everyone outside of Ann Arbor wants to see them do it.

And one other thing to note here as it pertains to motivation and mindset: Penn State had a revenge factor for this game even before the Michigan cheating scandal got blown open. They went up to Ann Arbor last year and the Cheaters ran for 418 on them. According to Josh Pate, Penn State has had “418” posted all over their facility in the run up to this game, so they are well aware of what happened last year and the humiliation they suffered. Add on the fact that they now know Michigan was cheating in that game, and I think you’ve got a pissed-off, motivated Penn State team coming into this game. We haven’t really heard a whole lot of talk coming out of Penn State this week, either. They’ve been quiet, not talking shit, not really getting into the whole media firestorm–I think that’s by design. It’s a business approach; they’re just waiting for Saturday.

But do they really have a chance? We’ve already gone over James Franklin’s 3-6 record against Michigan–it seems like a long shot for Penn State, no?

Well, as we briefly went over above, Penn State has actually been able to beat Michigan in State College on a fairly regular basis going all the way back to the start of the rivalry in 1993, when Penn State joined the Big Ten.

Penn State has a 6-6 record against Michigan in Happy Valley dating back to 1993:

Penn State is actually 5-2 against Michigan in Happy Valley if you just go back to 2008, but 2-2 in the last 4.

This is kind of a defense of James Franklin, who I know a lot of people are out on. Once Franklin got Penn State built up to where he wanted, they won 3 of 4 against Michigan. And then, once Michigan started cheating, Penn State started losing to them.

I’m pretty sure this will be a close game. Even in 2021, when Penn State went just 7-6 and Michigan was cheating their way to the playoff, it was still only a 21-17 Michigan win. The 2015 game, which Michigan won by 12, was 21-16 in the 4th quarter with 8 minutes to play and then Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg limped off the field with an injury. It was a close game.

So really, Penn State has not actually been blown out by Michigan in Happy Valley since… 2001. Penn State has either won or lost a close game every year since. And the only times Michigan has won in Happy Valley since 2008 have been years when Penn State is down–Penn State went 7-6 in both 2021 and 2015.

Typically, when Penn State is good, they should beat Michigan if the game is played in State College.

Penn State is at least pretty good this season–I wouldn’t say great, but this is definitely a better Penn State team than the one that lost to Michigan at home in 2015 and 2021.

So that’s good news if you’re a Penn State fan. 

More good news for Penn State fans: Jim Harbaugh might very well be suspended by the time Saturday rolls around, and in fact I think there’s a pretty good chance that Purdue was the last game he’ll ever coach at the University of Michigan.

And then there’s the fact that Michigan doesn’t have Stalions anymore–I’m sure Stalions left all his notes and intel behind for them, but their opponents can take some measures to mitigate the fact that they assume Michigan has their signs. They can huddle, which isn’t ideal, but they can also go to wristbands, they can use dummy play signalers–there’s a lot they can do even if a full-scale overhaul of the offensive signs is impossible. The Stalions edge that Michigan once had over everyone in the Big Ten may in fact be gone now, and we saw the evidence in the Purdue game.

Purdue is not a very good team, and I’m not saying they were close to beating Michigan, but Michigan wasn’t quite as dominant as they were in their earlier games this season.

Now Purdue was not the first Michigan opponent since the Stalions cat was let out of the bag; Michigan did play Michigan State a few days after the scandal broke. But Michigan State is horrible and they probably didn’t have enough time to really change much up.

This game against Purdue, though, was their first true game without Stalions and where the opponent knew full well what they were up to and had time to change things up.

It just so happened that it was Michigan’s lowest output of the season in terms of rushing yards per carry (just 3.2 as a team), and it was McCarthy’s worst game in terms of pass completion rate other than Bowling Green at 64.9%. Previously he’d been averaging over 77% completion rate on the season. 

Against Purdue, McCarthy threw for a season-high 335 pass yards, in fact it was his first game going over 300 all season, but it wasn’t nearly as efficient as all his previous games. He was 24/37 passing, and prior to that his most pass attempts in a game was 30 back in week 1 against East Carolina.

McCarthy’s 13 incompletions against Purdue were notable because it was the same number of incompletions he had in the previous three games combined (Michigan State, Indiana, Minnesota).

He had to throw the ball a lot more because he wasn’t as efficient, and because they weren’t great running the ball. In fact, it was even worse for Michigan than the stats show–the stats show they ran 34 times for 110 yards, but they also had a 44 yard touchdown run on the ground. On their 33 other carries, just 66 yards–2.0 yards per carry. So they needed McCarthy to throw the ball a lot more than usual. And he didn’t look quite as untouchable doing it.

Things are clearly different for Michigan. The numbers they produced against Purdue were not quite as other-worldy as all their previous games, and it’s because all those extreme outlier statistical performances they were putting up were fraudulent.

This was the dilemma I was in with Michigan all season. Michigan fans were over the moon about how McCarthy was routinely completing 80%+ of his passes this season, and about how their defense was just absolutely suffocating opponents to a degree we’ve never really seen before.

It was like, yeah, sure, you guys have played a historically weak schedule, and that explains a lot of it, but at the same time, Michigan was still doing some things that nobody has ever done before. And I knew there was something fraudulent about it all, but I couldn’t fully explain it away by just saying, “it’s their weak schedule.”

There have been a lot of teams to play weak schedules throughout the years, but none of them dominated the way this Michigan team has.

For instance, it was the first time since 1904 that a Michigan team had won its first 9 games by 24+ points.

And it was the first time in the poll era (since 1936) that any college football team had won its first 9 games of the season scoring at least 30 while holding all opponents to 10 points or fewer. Nobody has ever done it!

So when faced with some data like that, I had to either just give in and accept the fact that the 2023 Michigan Wolverines are the greatest team in the history of college football, or come up with some other explanation.

And the explanation that I came up with is that they played a weak schedule, plus they’re a “Try-hard team” that does that kind of shit on purpose. Like, programs like Ohio State and Georgia could probably do that stuff, but they don’t really care since they’re just focused on staying healthy and getting to the playoff. Michigan, as a team that is not really used to this kind of success and feels they have a lot to prove, was highly motivated to just beat the living fuck out of horrible teams as badly as possible so that they could puff their chests out and say, “Look at how good we are!”

That was the explanation I came up with and it made sense to me. I never once thought Michigan was cheating. I just thought they were try-hards running up the score against a pathetic schedule.

But I also never once was willing to entertain, even for a second, that this Michigan team was the best team in the country, much less the best college football team ever. They don’t recruit at an elite level–they rank just 14th in the composite talent rankings. They don’t have elite athletes like other top programs do, and they don’t acquit themselves well when they get to the postseason–they played Georgia in 2021 and got absolutely wrecked, to the point where they didn’t even belong on the field with Georgia.

So I knew it was all fake, somehow. It simply wasn’t adding up. I knew JJ McCarthy wasn’t the greatest quarterback in the history of college football even though the stats kinda indicated he was. I knew all the extreme outlier performances and numbers they were putting up this year were somehow fraudulent, I just didn’t know why, exactly.

Well, now we know why. Now everybody knows why.

And now that Michigan’s opponents are wise to their schemes, Michigan doesn’t look quite as dominant. And again, it’s hard to pull much from this Purdue game because Purdue is a bad team. You kind of have to squint to see the drop-off in Michigan’s numbers in the Purdue game vs. their previous 8 games, but it’s there.

Getting a little deeper, McCarthy in the two games without Stalions has seen his production against the blitz plummet compared to when they had Stalions. The only game with Stalions he was bad against the blitz was the Bowling Green game… where presumably Michigan neglected to scout them. 

Obviously we’ll need more data points from the post-Stalions era to really see how much worse Michigan gets without him, but all of the sudden, Michigan had their worst rushing performance of the season; all of the sudden JJ McCarthy is not the most efficient quarterback in the history of football.

The real story with Michigan this year, though, which nobody in the national media is really talking about, is that they are significantly worse running the ball this year than they were last year. And this is an issue that didn’t just start with Purdue–it’s been going on all season, it was just even more noticeable against Purdue:

Michigan is averaging a full yard per carry less this season than they did last season. Blake Corum’s yards per carry has dipped from 5.9 to 5.2, and Donovan Edwards is down a shocking 4 yards per carry: from 7.1 to 3.1.

Penn State is a really good run defense. They held Maryland to -51 rushing yards last week, and that is not a typo. Part of that was because they sacked Taulia 6 times, but outside of Taulia they ran the ball 8 times for -2 yards. Michigan is going to do better than that, but it is not going to be easy for Michigan to run the ball in this game. It hasn’t been easy for them to run the ball against really anybody this year, but this Penn State front presents a far greater challenge than anything they’ve faced before.

Which means that JJ McCarthy is going to have to win this game with his arm, and I don’t think he’s good enough to do that. He wasn’t very great last year but had some fluke long touchdowns against Ohio State, then everyone started to think he was elite. He had decent numbers against TCU in the playoff but also had those two killer pick-sixes. And then this year, he’s been super efficient, but it’s been against garbage competition, with the benefit of cheating, and he has never once been in a situation where it’s all on him to win the game with his arm. The one game they did try to showcase his arm was against Bowling Green and he threw three INTs. Then the coaches said, “Enough of that,” and he finished the game with 13 pass attempts.

I don’t think McCarthy is the type of quarterback that can put the team on his back and lead them to victory with his arm against a legit opponent. I really don’t. 

The one time Michigan has ever asked him to do it–against TCU in the playoff–he couldn’t. He threw two pick-sixes, and that was against a Big 12 defense that gave up 65 to Georgia the following week.

If Michigan could not run for more than 3.2 yards per carry against Purdue at home, what are they going to do against Penn State on the road?

Michigan has not faced anywhere near the level of athletes that Penn State has thus far. Not even close. 

And I think Penn State is getting Chop Robinson back this week, too. He’s missed every game since leaving the Ohio State game early with an undisclosed injury–at first I thought it was a concussion but he then missed the following two games so I don’t think it could’ve been a concussion. It might have been a shoulder or a neck injury or something in that area if you go back and watch the replay. 

But Penn State hopes to get him back this week, and he’s their best pass rusher–maybe the best in the country, honestly. If they get him back, and they’re stopping the run, that’s bad news for Michigan because Chop really bolsters that Penn State defensive line. And they are going to try to get after McCarthy early and often–Penn State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz looooves to blitz, and if he’s got his best pass rusher back, you already know what’s up. (Diaz also trolled Michigan pretty hilariously over the sign stealing thing in one of their hype up videos during the week, check out the Penn State football page on X/Twitter.)

So I really don’t see Michigan moving the ball very well against Penn State. In fact, you will probably see JJ throw a pick or two because that’s what happens when he’s forced to throw the ball: he throws picks. It’s going to be very tough sledding, because not only will the Penn State pass rush get after him, Penn State’s defensive backs are pretty good as well. Roman Wilson is not some generational receiver that is going to keep opposing defensive coordinators up at night like Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison absolutely shredded the Penn State secondary, but Wilson isn’t anywhere close to his level, so I don’t expect him to be running free on the majority of his routes. He’ll probably pop open a few times but nothing crazy.

Other than Roman Wilson, Michigan throws a lot to the tight ends and running back Donovan Edwards. Colston Loveland the tight end is McCarthy’s favorite target outside of Wilson, and anytime McCarthy rolls out of the pocket and improvises with his legs (which happens quite a bit), he often finds Loveland open downfield. The key for Penn State will be containing McCarthy in the pocket, and if that fails, making sure Loveland doesn’t free himself up on the old backyard football drill, a la Travis Kelce.

Overall, though, these Michigan pass-catchers shouldn’t really scare you if you’re Penn State. You’ve got two good corners in Johnny Dixon and Kalen King, you’ve already gone up against a much more talented group of skill players (Ohio State) and held them to 20 points on the road. While McCarthy is probably a better quarterback than Kyle McCord is, I don’t think it’s by all that much, and I think Ohio State’s group of skill players are significantly better than Michigan’s.

I think Penn State’s defense is going to have success against the Michigan offense. I really do. Michigan’s run game has really regressed a lot this year, and I just think JJ McCarthy is very overrated as a passer.

Unfortunately for Penn State, I also think the Michigan defense will have the edge in that matchup.

I think both defenses will be the main characters in this game.

I said JJ McCarthy is overrated, but he’s still better than Drew Allar. I haven’t really been all that impressed by Drew Allar, and I’m sure a lot of people around the country feel the same way.

He came in with so much hype–6’5”, big arm, 5-star talent–and yet whenever I watch him, it’s a lot of underwhelming plays. Lots of checkdowns and missed throws–it’s very disappointing. I see the guy with time in the pocket to throw, and he looks like he’s about to launch it deep, and I’m like “Yes, here we go. Let’s see him let it rip.” And then he’ll just…. check it down underneath.

When I see a quarterback with size like him, I’m expecting deep shots early and often. I’m expecting Josh Allen, Ben Roethlishberger, Justin Herbert. But Drew Allar isn’t like that at all. He’s only averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt this year, which is pretty terrible–he ranks 85th in the nation.

The Penn State running backs are disappointing as well. Penn State averages 4.2 yards a carry this year, good for 72nd in the country. They have some talented running backs–nobody will deny Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton have a ton of talent–but their offensive line isn’t great. Penn State has not once averaged 5.0 yards per carry against a Power Five opponent this year. Ohio State held them to 1.9 yards a carry.

I don’t think Michigan’s defense is quite as good as Ohio State’s because they don’t have the caliber of athletes that Ohio State has, but it’s still a pretty strong defense, and I don’t see Penn State’s offense having much success. I don’t think Penn State’s offense is particularly good, and going up against a strong defense like Michigan’s, I just can’t see how Penn State will get much going unless they show us a level of explosiveness we’ve not seen out of them this season.

So in light of what we’ve just gone over, I think this is going to be a low-scoring game. The Ohio State-Penn State game had a score of 20-12, and I think this game will probably end up with a similar point total. I could see a 20-17, or 20-14, or 17-14 game; something along those lines. Maybe even lower-scoring than that, too–we could even get a 13-10 game.

However, I am going to pick Penn State to win for a few reasons: one, because they’re at home, and two, because even though Allar has been a disappointment, his one saving grace is that he tends to take very good care of the ball, and I just think McCarthy will throw a pick or two which will be the difference in this game.

I’m not overly convinced that Penn State wins this game, but like I went over in the Ohio State-Penn State preview post, Penn State is just a different team at home. Unfortunately for them it won’t be a night game, so they won’t enjoy as much of a home field advantage, but it’s still a big deal in a game that is likely to be low-scoring. Every little bit helps. The crowd will be insanely loud, the atmosphere will be wild, plus there will be that element of anger and contempt in the air because this Michigan cheating scandal has really hit people on a visceral level. People really want to see Michigan get what they deserve, and I think the Penn State players will channel that energy coming from the crowd.

Then there’s the fact that there’s a great chance Harbaugh won’t be coaching Michigan for this game, and that their cheating edge over other teams is neutralized to a great degree (if not entirely), I just think Penn State will eke out the win.

What if Michigan has gotten so used to having Stalions knowing all the other teams’ plays, and whispering them into the ears of Jesse Minter and Sherrone Moore as they call Michigan’s plays, that it’s been like a crutch for them, and they find themselves unable to function properly without him? It’s very possible. I mean for goodness sakes, Stalions has basically been both their offensive and defensive coordinator the past two years. He reads the other team’s play call, lets Minter or Moore know what it is, and then they make Michigan’s play call off of what Stalions told them the other team is running. It’s a big deal that Michigan no longer has Stalions there joined at the hip with Minter and Moore.

I had a much higher conviction that Ohio State would beat Penn State because while both defenses were kind of a wash, Ohio State had much better offensive weapons and better overall roster talent. 

When it comes to Penn State vs. Michigan, the defenses are likely a wash as well (maybe a slight edge to Penn State), but there’s not much of a gap in roster talent and skill position talent. I do, however, think Penn State has more dynamic athletes offensively than Michigan does. Not by a lot, more of a slight edge. Michigan ranks 14th in composite talent, Penn State ranks 13th. They’re nearly even–put it this way, if Penn State loses, it won’t be because they just got out-talented. They’ve got the dudes to win this game.

The whole game hinges on McCarthy. If he proves me wrong and balls out, Michigan will almost certainly win. If he proves me right and is incapable of carrying his team to victory by himself, throwing 1-2 interceptions in the process, Penn State wins the game.

The one area where Michigan has a major advantage over Penn State, and the one area where I don’t think JJ McCarthy is just a complete fraud is in the scramble game. He’s actually a pretty good runner, and that running ability will likely bail Michigan out on more than one occasion. Honestly, McCarthy running the ball will probably end up being the one thing that works best for Michigan offensively.

At this point I have kind of given up on waiting for the Drew Allar breakout game where he shows the country why he was considered the best QB prospect in the country in 2022. Maybe he’ll take some strides next season, but this season, I think he just is who he is. He’s not going to just suddenly turn into Michael Penix.

To beat Michigan, though, he doesn’t have to be. He just has to take care of the ball, make a few clutch throws, and lead the offense to like 20-23 points.

There are two main questions I have about Michigan. The first I’ve had all season, since before the cheating scandal came to light: how good are they, truly? They have been statistically dominant, but they’ve played quite literally the weakest schedule in the Power Five. So it’s fair to ask how good they truly are–they simply haven’t been tested.

The next question just builds off of that, but also adds in the cheating scandal: how will they fare against the first legitimate opponent of the season AND without the Stalions for the first time in years?

We have no real baseline to evaluate Michigan off of, other than maybe the TCU game or the Georgia game from 2021. But that’s not this year’s Michigan team.

Because we haven’t seen them play any legit teams that can actually challenge them, we kind of just default back to how they looked last year, when they beat both Penn State and Ohio State by multiple touchdowns. So you almost can’t help but think, “Yeah, they haven’t played anybody, but of course they’re legit. They’ve just been so dominant in the Big Ten.”

That might be true. But we also haven’t seen them play without cheating in a long time. We really have no idea how they’re going to look.

I am pretty convinced that the Michigan we saw in their first 8 games isn’t the real Michigan, and that anyone just assuming that team will show up in Penn State is giving them an awful lot of credit while also greatly minimizing the impact the Stalions operation had for them.

Everything we thought we knew about Michigan is a lie. 

HOWEVER, this is still Penn State we’re dealing with here. I cannot give them more than a 60% chance of winning this game, but I do feel that if Michigan doesn’t have the Stalions advantage (and that’s a big “if,” because we have no way of knowing just how many of Penn State’s signals they’ll be able to read in this game) then Penn State absolutely can win this game.

Pick: Penn State 19, Michigan 14

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The Michigan Scandal is Self-Evidently True

We all know it happened, and the only people that deny it are the hardcore nutcases on social media with the 〽️ emojis all over the place.

But I want to just pause and assess this from a more general standpoint for a second, because when you do that, it becomes impossible to believe that Michigan wasn’t cheating these past 2.5 years.

For them to accomplish what they have accomplished over these past 2, now nearly 3, seasons, it just defies belief because they went from being a B-tier program to being an A-tier program virtually overnight.

You don’t just start dominating Ohio State out of nowhere. I know people think, “Well it’s a rivalry, anything can happen!”

But no, that’s actually not how it works.

Alabama and Auburn–big rivalry. Auburn HATES Alabama, right? They DESPISE Alabama. It’s an intense, bitter, ancient rivalry between those two programs.

And yet contrary to that old familiar chestnut we’ve all heard countless times–“throw the records out when these two teams play”–talent still wins out 9 times out of 10 in that rivalry. 

Nick Saban, since he’s been at Alabama, is 11-5 against Auburn. Let’s quickly recap his 5 losses to Auburn: 

1. The first was in 2007, his first year there, and Alabama was a bad team. Doesn’t really count. He didn’t have the Tide rolling that year.
2. The second loss was in 2010, when Bama was up 24-0 on Auburn and Cam Newton led them all the way back to win 28-27. So Cam Newton happened, and besides that, Auburn was really good that year–they went on to win the National Championship. And 2010 was probably the most flawed of any of Saban’s Bama teams excluding 2007. Understandable.
3. The third Saban loss to Auburn was in 2013, off the Kick Six. Yes, it was a close game, but Auburn won it on perhaps the most miraculous play in the history of sports. And again, Auburn was really good that year–they went to the National Championship again, and looked like they were going to win it, but blew a 21-3 lead.
4. Saban’s fourth loss to Auburn was in 2017, and that was a really good Auburn team that not only beat Alabama 26-14, they also beat Georgia 40-17, the team Alabama would play in the National Championship. (Auburn also lost 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC Championship, however, which is why they didn’t go to the playoff.) Alabama was also offensively flawed that year–all the way up until halftime of the National Championship game when they swapped out Jalen Hurts for Tua Tagovailoa and erased the 13-0 deficit and beat Georgia in overtime.
5. The fifth loss to Auburn in the Saban era was in 2019, and it was after Tua was injured and sidelined for the remainder of the year. Auburn won 48-45 in Auburn.
6. (Interesting note: Saban has never beaten Auburn 4 times in a row. His longest winning streak in the rivalry is 3 games, on two different occasions. Right now, Bama has beaten Auburn 3 times in a row. Does that mean Auburn is due for a win…?)

So, my point here is that even though Auburn HATES Alabama with every fiber of their being, the rivalry between the two is still heavily lopsided in favor of Alabama. Auburn only wins in either fluky or miraculous circumstances, or in situations where Alabama is dealing with injuries to key players, or when Nick Saban is still in the midst of a full-scale rebuild–in some way, shape or form, it’s got to be a special set of circumstances for Auburn to beat Bama.

I know people love to say “throw the records out,” but the reality is, even in intense, bitter rivalries, talent is going to win out most of the time. Doesn’t matter how much Auburn hates Alabama, Alabama is still probably going to kick their asses because Alabama simply has better players.

When you have the better players, you’re going to win most of the time.

And the same is true with Ohio State and Michigan. Ohio State is an Alabama/Georgia-level program. They are #3 in the nation in the talent composite. They have an obscene amount of talent and depth, and really, it’s just Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State that are in that super elite tier when it comes to recruiting and talent. Nobody else in the country is on their level–especially not Michigan, who ranks 14th in the country in talent. They are in a class of their own with only Alabama and Georgia.

In the early/mid-2000s, once Jim Tressel took over Ohio State, he leveled the program up to the elite of the sport. He won a National Championship in 2002, led the program back to the National Championship in 2006 and 2007, recruited at a very high level–that was when Ohio State really separated from not only Michigan, but the rest of the Big Ten altogether.

And you saw that reflected in the fact that Jim Tressel went 9-1 against Michigan. Jim Tressel was the guy who really flipped the rivalry, because from 1976-2000, Michigan was 17-7-1 in the rivalry, and if you just focus on the late 80s and 90s, it was even more lopsided in Michigan’s favor. Ohio State coach John Cooper, who led the program from 1988-2000 and was Tressel’s direct predecessor, went an unfathomable 2-10-1 vs. Michigan. No Ohio State coach nowadays would be allowed to get anywhere close to that bad of a record against Michigan, because they’d be fired long before it could get to that point. Cooper started out 0-5-1 against Michigan, and then over his remaining 7 years on the job went 2-5. His only wins were in 1994 and 1998; he never won in Ann Arbor.

John Cooper actually did field some pretty great teams apart from their annual collapse against Michigan. There were loads of great NFL players that came through Ohio State under John Cooper, he just couldn’t win the rivalry game. In 1993, his Ohio State team started out 8-0, then tied Wisconsin (there was no overtime in CFB until 1996), but went into the Michigan game at the end of the season in Ann Arbor ranked 5th in the country, 9-0-1, and yet somehow lost 28-0 to an unranked Michigan team.

In 1995, Ohio State started out 11-0 and were ranked #2 in the Nation going into Ann Arbor against an 18th-ranked Michigan squad. Ohio State had the Heisman winner, running back Eddie George, and basically all they had to do was beat Michigan and they’d have a chance to play for the National Championship. They lost 31-23.

Now, obviously Ohio State probably would’ve lost to Nebraska in the National Championship because 1995 Nebraska was arguably the greatest team in the history of college football. But then again, Ohio State wouldn’t have had to play Nebraska in the bowl game–they would’ve gone to the Rose Bowl and played a 17th-ranked USC team and probably won. The BCS wasn’t around back in 1995, so there were multiple split National Championships throughout the 1990s because they could never figure out a way to reliably get #1 and #2 to play against each other in a bowl game. Ohio State, had they beaten Michigan and won the Rose Bowl over USC, would’ve been 12-0 and been crowned National Champions by some publications, even though everybody would’ve known Nebraska was the best team. Still counts, I guess.

(This is pretty much exactly how Michigan got their half a Natty in 1997: they were undefeated, beat a weak PAC team in the Rose Bowl, and split the National Championship with Nebraska because they were fortunate enough to not have to actually play against Nebraska head to head.)

In 1996, it was even worse for Ohio State–they would have won the National Championship had they been able to simply beat Michigan at home. They started out 10-0, got up to #2 in the nation, but lost 13-9 in Columbus to a 21st-ranked Michigan squad. They still went on to the Rose Bowl where they played #2 ranked Arizona State. By this time, Ohio State had fallen to #4, so Arizona State was playing for a share of the National Championship, but Ohio State wasn’t. Ohio State still won the game, 20-17.

The other National Championship game that year was a rematch between Florida State and Florida in the Sugar Bowl. FSU had won the regular season matchup, and finished out the regular season 11-0 and ranked #1 in the nation. If the BCS had been around back in 1996 (it started in 1998), then the National Championship would’ve been FSU vs. ASU, as they were both undefeated and ranked 1 and 2. But under the Bowl Alliance system, they tried to get 1 vs. 2 matched up in a bowl game at the end of the year, the issue is that it couldn’t include the Big Ten or the PAC because their champions were contractually obligated to play in the Rose Bowl no matter what. So that’s why FSU and ASU weren’t able to play for the National Championship–ASU had to play in the Rose Bowl even though they had qualified to play Florida State for the National Championship.

So what happened was the Sugar Bowl took Florida State and Florida. Florida was 10-1, their only loss was to FSU in the final week of the season, and it was a close game: FSU won 24-21 at home. After the game, Florida only dropped down to #4 in the rankings, behind FSU, ASU and Nebraska. It would’ve been 10-1, #3 ranked Nebraska playing FSU in the Sugar Bowl for the National Championship had they won their last game because Nebraska was actually the two-time defending National Champions and the team at #2, ASU, couldn’t play FSU in the bowl game. But Nebraska lost to an unranked Texas squad in the Big 12 Championship game (Nebraska had also lost 19-0 to ASU in the first week of the season, so ASU was legit), which then allowed Florida to move up to #3 in the rankings and set up a rematch against FSU in the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar Bowl just took Florida State and the next-highest ranked team available because ASU was locked into the Rose Bowl, and it just so happened that it set up a rematch between FSU and UF.

The Sugar Bowl ended up being a National Championship for Florida because Ohio State beat ASU in the Rose Bowl and Florida won the rematch against FSU in a blowout, 52-20. So even though Florida went into the bowl game ranked #3, they were declared National Champions because they beat #1 convincingly, and because #2 lost their bowl game.

If Arizona State had beaten Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, it would’ve been a split National Championship with them and Florida. ASU may have even had the stronger claim because they would’ve been undefeated whereas Florida had a loss. But for Ohio State, had they simply beaten Michigan, they would’ve been the ones playing for the National Championship–and they would’ve won it, too, because they beat ASU in the actual game. At the very least, Ohio State would’ve split the National Championship with with Florida.

Was Ohio State actually better than Florida State or Florida in 1996? Probably not. The 1990s was the golden age for the three Florida-based power programs: Miami, FSU and UF. They all won National Championships in the 1990s. FSU was a dominant power throughout the decade, while Miami was strong in the early ’90s but then fell off after about 1992, with Florida kind of taking their place as the other dominant power in the state until the early 2000s, when Miami returned to prominence. Although Nebraska was unquestionably the team of the decade in the 1990s, Florida State was the runner-up, and altogether, FSU, Miami and UF combined for an impressive 4 of the 10 National Championships between 1990-1999. So I doubt Ohio State would’ve beaten either FSU or UF had the BCS been around and pitted Ohio State up against either of them in the National Championship.

But the question is moot because the BCS wasn’t around, and all Ohio State would’ve had to have done was beat a 21st-ranked Michigan team at home in Columbus. That’s the only thing that prevented them from winning a National Championship in 1996.

That’s how the John Cooper era went in Columbus. Ohio State missed out on 2 potential National Championships purely because they couldn’t beat an inferior Michigan team. (Actually, Cooper missed out on three potential National Championships–the third was in 1998, but that year they lost not to Michigan but to Nick Saban’s unranked Michigan State squad at home in Columbus while 8-0 and ranked #1. They were able to beat Michigan that year, and they finished 11-1.)

The knock on John Cooper was that he wasn’t from Ohio (he was from Tennessee) so he didn’t understand the rivalry, plus his teams were notoriously undisciplined. Apparently he didn’t place an increased emphasis on beating Michigan; his philosophy was to just treat it like any other game, and he didn’t change course even after his approach was obviously not working.

When Tressel took over at Ohio State, that’s when the rivalry flipped. Jim Tressel was from Ohio. He understood the rivalry. And he wasn’t going to treat it like any other game–he knew it was too important for that. Tressel set the tone not long after being hired. He was introduced at halftime of an Ohio State basketball game, went out to center court, took a microphone and addressed the crowd, saying:

“I’m so proud, so excited and so humble to be your football coach at Ohio State,” Tressel said. “I can assure you, you will be proud of our young people in the classroom, in the community and, most especially, in 310 days in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on the football field.“

The man called his shot–and he delivered, too. 310 days later, just like he promised, Ohio State went up to Ann Arbor and beat Michigan on the road for the first time since 1987. John Cooper never beat Michigan in Ann Arbor; Tressel did it in his first year. Then he won a National Championship the following year.

If you want to pinpoint the exact moment the rivalry flipped in Ohio State’s favor, it was that speech on the basketball court in January 2001. From that point on, Ohio State absolutely owned Michigan. Tressel took the program to another level and they haven’t looked back.

In addition to Tressel leveling Ohio State up, Michigan also leveled down in the late 2000s. It started with the Appalachian State game in 2007, which was Lloyd Carr’s final season. But even after Michigan lost to App State, they still kind of rallied a bit that season to finish 9-4. They actually even beat Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow’s Florida Gators squad in the Capital One Bowl, carried Lloyd Carr off the field victorious for the final time, sent him off into the sunset, etc. But after Lloyd Carr retired, his replacement, Rich Rodriguez–who had been wildly successful at West Virginia–was a disaster. He went 3-9, then 5-7, then 7-6, then got fired after the 2010 season. Michigan brought in “Michigan Man” Brady Hoke, and they actually went 11-2 and won the Sugar Bowl over Virginia Tech in his first season. But then they started regressing, going 8-5, then 7-6, then 5-7, and eventually Hoke was fired after the 2014 season. Then they hired Jim Harbaugh in late December 2014.

Actually, I have to revise my earlier statement: I don’t think the App State game was the start of Michigan’s collapse. I think the collapse had already begun by that point, and losing to App State was a sign that the collapse was already well underway. I think the collapse really started when Michigan lost the “Game of the Century” to Ohio State in 2006. The hype that surrounded that game was unlike anything I’ve seen since for a regular season college football game. The only game that maybe came close was 2019 Alabama vs. LSU. Ohio State was #1, Michigan was #2. It felt like that game was really the pinnacle of the rivalry. It felt like it was for all the marbles–loser has to leave town. Maybe I was just young and didn’t really understand, got caught up in the moment, but it really felt like the entire Ohio State vs. Michigan rivalry was building to that particular game in 2006. It was the battle of Helm’s Deep–this was it. And the way Michigan went downhill afterwards, I think they felt the same way, too. It was like Ohio State won a lasting and resounding victory in that game. In my opinion that game, not the App State game, was the moment Michigan started to crumble.

Anyway, while Michigan was floundering about under Rich Rod, Jim Tressel was forced to resign from Ohio State over the Tattoogate “scandal”, and a young Luke Fickell took over for the 2011 season as interim head coach. He did an admirable job holding the program together, but the team went just 6-7 on the field, and they did end up losing to Michigan that year, in Ann Arbor, narrowly, by a score of 40-34. It was an admirable effort because the Buckeyes were unranked going into that game with a 6-5 record, while Michigan was 9-2 and ranked 17th.

That was the only time Michigan beat Ohio State between 2004-2020.

And this gets back to my original point here: Ohio State in the 2000s had leveled-up to such a degree, and Michigan had leveled-down, that the rivalry had gotten to the point where Michigan could only beat Ohio State in extraordinary circumstances and/or with a good bit of luck on their side. In order to beat Ohio State, Michigan needed Ohio State’s coach to resign in disgrace, plunging the program into chaos; and for Tressel’s replacement to be a 38-year-old Luke Fickell who had never been a head coach before and was thrust into an impossible situation. And Michigan still barely won the game–Ohio State had the ball down 6 with under 2 minutes to go. They could’ve won the game. Braxton Miller–who was thrust into the starting QB role as a true freshman because the previous Ohio State quarterback, Terrelle Pryor, was essentially forced to jump to the NFL in the wake of the scandal–overthrew a wide open receiver on a deep shot down the sideline that would’ve gone for a touchdown and probably would’ve given Ohio State a 41-40 win.

So that’s what it took for Michigan to beat Ohio State even once between 2003-2021.

All told, from 2001 (when Jim Tressel took over) up to 2021 (when Michigan started cheating), Ohio State was 17-2 against Michigan.

And it wasn’t a fluke!

It was because Ohio State had leveled-up as a program. They had better coaching, better players–they were just plain better in every way.

Ohio State even leveled up again when Urban Meyer took over the program following the 2011 season. And he continued the tradition of dominating Michigan that Jim Tressel established. 

But it wasn’t because they “wanted it more” or had Michigan’s number–they were simply the better football program in every way, and by every metric. Were Urban Meyer and Jim Tressel fanatical, bordering on psychotic, when it came to the rivalry? Absolutely.

But it wouldn’t have amounted to jack shit if they weren’t also elite football coaches and elite recruiters. That, more than anything, is why they were able to go a combined 16-1 against Michigan.

And that’s what happens when two programs on different levels play: one wins the vast majority of the time.

It’s the same as when Ohio State plays Penn State or Wisconsin–or even Illinois, for that matter. Pick any Big Ten program, because Ohio State separated from all of them starting in the 2000s. 

Ohio State is better than those programs, so they win the vast majority of the time. Ohio State is 14-4 against Wisconsin dating back to 2001. They’re 18-5 against Penn State since 2001. They’re 15-3 against Michigan State since 2001.

When you look at it in that lens, it shouldn’t really be a huge surprise that they were also 17-2 against Michigan between 2001-2020. And it’s really 18-2 because Michigan ducked the game in 2020.

Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan State weren’t bad programs over that span. In fact they were good to borderline very good programs over that span. So was Michigan–outside of a few really ugly years, Michigan was either good or really good for that whole span. 

But Ohio State was an elite program, and there’s a big difference between an elite program and a good program–even a very good program.

It didn’t matter how angry and hateful Michigan was–9 out of 10 times they were not going to beat Ohio State because Ohio State was just plain better than them. Sure, sometimes Michigan could play them close, and that’s where the emotional nature of the rivalry comes into play, but that emotion and fire is typically not going to be enough to make up the wide gap in talent between the two teams. It only gets you so far.

Oklahoma-Oklahoma State, the Bedlam Series, is an intense, bitter rivalry. But Oklahoma is 19-6 in the rivalry dating back to when Bob Stoops took over in 1999. They’re just on two different levels as programs, and no matter how much Oklahoma State hates Oklahoma–their players grew up hating the Sooners, they’ve been brainwashed to hate them even more, and all they think about is beating the Sooners–Oklahoma is still probably going to win that game because they’re simply a better football program.

The point I’m getting at is that the alarm bells really should’ve started to go off when Michigan beat Ohio State last year. When Michigan beat Ohio State in 2021, fine, you can understand that. Eventually Michigan is going to win one game here or there, and Ohio State couldn’t stop the run in that game. But when they went into Columbus and beat Ohio State 45-23? Nah, man. Something wasn’t right there.

People bought into this idea that, well, it’s the big rivalry, anything can happen–”Throw out the records when these two teams play!” So nobody really batted an eye. They just assumed Ohio State and Michigan were equal programs in terms of talent, coaching and overall competency, so it’s going to go back and forth, Michigan is good enough to win these games, etc.

The problem with that analysis was that it wasn’t true. Ohio State and Michigan were not equal programs. They hadn’t been equal programs for a very long time, either. Again: Ohio State was 17-2 in their previous 19 meetings leading to the 2021 game.

It was pretty obvious that Ohio State and Michigan were not equal programs at that point. It was not because Ohio State just “understood the rivalry better” or brainwashed their players better, or “had Michigan’s number.”

It was because Ohio State had better coaches and better players. They were simply better in every way.

What should’ve made the alarm bells go off was once Michigan suddenly started dominating the rivalry.

Because Ohio State was still an elite program. They still had better players. They were still recruiting at a higher level. They still had the better coaching staff.

I’ve already gone over it in previous posts, but Michigan has not leveled up in recruiting at all over the past few seasons. If anything, they’re recruiting at a slightly lower level than they were pre-cheating. And yet somehow they just all of the sudden become a better football program than Ohio State? Nah, man. Something ain’t right.

I picked Ohio State to win in each of the past two seasons. I looked at the stats, and they were statistically the superior team both times. They had the superior roster both times. They were favored by Vegas both times. There was nothing in the data to indicate that Michigan had surpassed them. Nothing.

Except the on-field results.

Michigan had the same head coach that was previously 0-5 against Ohio State. They didn’t get a new coach that shook things up or anything like that. They didn’t suddenly level up in recruiting (although if they did it would’ve raised some alarm bells as well). And yet all of the sudden, they were running Ohio State off the field.

There was nothing tangible you could point to that could’ve explained why all of the sudden that was happening. You could explain 2021 as a one-off, but not 2022.

The explanation that people latched onto was that Ohio State had become “soft” as a program, or that Ryan Day wasn’t an Ohio guy so he just “didn’t get” the rivalry. He didn’t hate Michigan enough. He didn’t want to beat Michigan badly enough, or something. That’s how people rationalized it. Michigan just suddenly became the biggest, baddest, toughest team in America, and Ohio State had become soft.

All that shit was nonsense, and obviously so, if any of us would’ve ever cared to think about it for half a second. If Ohio State was soft last season, then why did they push Georgia to the absolute brink in that playoff game? Can anyone explain that? Georgia is probably the least-soft program in the country–Georgia’s team is full of mean, nasty, hard-hitting freakshows that absolutely manhandle opponents week in and week out. And Ohio State was better than them–they were a missed field goal away from beating Georgia and then winning the National Championship the next week. Ohio State was the best team in the country last year.

But they weren’t better than Michigan?

We saw what happened the last time Michigan went up against Georgia–Michigan got absolutely fucking wrecked. Embarrassed. Man-handled. Georgia whooped them so badly that game should be on pornhub.

And we also saw that big, bad, mean, tough Michigan team go into the playoff game against TCU and get embarrassed as well. Go back and watch the highlights of that game–TCU’s defense was laying the wood on Michigan all day long. TCU was winning the line of scrimmage all game. We were told that Michigan had the biggest, baddest offensive line in the country–they just push EVERYBODY around. Nobody’s tougher than Michigan’s offensive line! 

And yet, if you look at the numbers, that was not the case at all. Michigan could barely run between the tackles at all in that game. Donovan Edwards had a 54 yard run on the first play of the game, but then after that, it was 22 carries for a grand total of 65 yards. Stonewalled. By TCU! Seriously, go watch the replay of that game. I just did last night. I did not remember TCU’s defense being that physical and violent up front–and I did not remember Michigan’s run game getting their shit pushed in the way they did. But it happened.

Seriously, though, I would like to know: when did Ohio State become “soft”? Were they soft in 2020, when they destroyed Clemson in the playoff and put up 639 yards of offense? When they held Clemson to 44 rushing yards on 20 carries? Do “soft” teams hang 50 on Clemson and hold them to 44 rushing yards?

Ohio State did get destroyed 52-24 by Alabama in the National Championship game, but that game was a crock of shit anyway. Ohio State could barely even practice due to a Covid outbreak (there was even talk of postponing the game a week because of how bad the situation was), they had a litany of guys who couldn’t play, plus Justin Fields was hurt. 

But I’m not even going to blame all that stuff. Ohio State lost to Bama because their secondary got absolutely roasted by Devonta Smith. It wasn’t like Alabama was steamrolling them on the ground–Bama averaged 4.1 yards a carry in that game. Nothing crazy at all. They won the game because Devonta Smith had 215 receiving yards and 3 TDs, and Mac Jones threw for 464 and 5 TDs on the Ohio State secondary. (That’s the moment I realized Steve Sarkisian was HIM–been a huge Sark fan ever since then. He schemed circles around the Ohio State defensive staff.)

Even if you do want to argue that the Alabama game proved Ohio State was soft in the secondary, the Ohio State secondary was emphatically not why they lost to Michigan the following season. They couldn’t stop the run against Michigan, and that’s when people started saying Ohio State was soft.

What about the whole “Ryan Day isn’t from Ohio so he doesn’t get the rivalry, and he doesn’t really and truly hate Michigan with all his heart, so that’s why he loses to Michigan”? 

What about that bullshit narrative?

I know Michigan, their fans, and all their sycophants in the media act like Ohio State and Michigan never played prior to 2021 so they can push their “Michigan OWNS Ohio State!” nonsense, but Ryan Day has beaten Michigan in Ann Arbor. In 2019, his first year as head coach, they went up there and beat Michigan 56-27. And then in the Covid season, when Michigan ducked the game (somehow not a “soft” thing to do), Ohio State was favored to win the game by 30. And they would’ve too. Michigan was horrible that year. They went 2-4.

So Ryan Day was tough back then, and understood the rivalry back then, and had sufficient hate for Michigan in his heart back then. But somehow, in 2021, all of that suddenly ceased being true. Or something.

No way.

And really, I’ve never believed any of those narratives around Ryan Day. For one, just because he’s not from Ohio doesn’t mean he “doesn’t get the rivalry.” The guy was brainwashed under Urban Meyer before he took over as head coach. There is no way you could work for Urban Meyer at Ohio State and not fully understand the importance of the rivalry. There is no way Urban Meyer would’ve handed the program over to Ryan Day unless Urban was confident that Day understood what he was getting into. Day was Urban’s hand-picked successor.

And second, Ryan Day is not this stubborn guy who is just going to keep ramming his head against a wall even when his approach isn’t working. He’s not John Cooper. Their defense was a weakness in 2021, and instantly after the season, Day cleaned house and went out and hired the best defensive coordinator in the nation, Jim Knowles. Knowles now makes $1.9 million a year and I believe he’s the highest paid coordinator in the sport. When something isn’t working, Ryan Day makes sure it gets fixed in short order.

They lost to Clemson in the playoff in his first season. It was a heart-breaking loss. The next season, they had their sights set on Clemson. They wanted revenge. And they got it, big time.

Ryan Day is not a guy who makes the same mistake twice. And yet somehow Michigan was able to embarrass him twice in a row.

The reason is because in 2021, Michigan started cheating.

They knew what play Ohio State was going to run every time they lined up.

That’s why they started beating Ohio State.

Was Ohio State weak against the run in 2021? Yeah, they were. 

Did Ohio State have a suspect secondary in 2022? Yeah, they did. But can you tell me how Michigan was able to hold Ohio State to 23 points when Georgia couldn’t even hold Ohio State under 40? Look at what CJ Stroud is doing in the NFL–you’re telling me with a straight face that Michigan’s secondary was just too much for him to handle last year?

But, actually, let’s rewind and talk about that 2021 game, and the impact that cheating likely had on it.

So we know Michigan ran for 297 yards on 7.2 yards per carry against Ohio State in the 2021 game. We know Oregon also chewed them up as well earlier in the season, running for 269 on 7.1 yards a carry. And even Minnesota tore up that Ohio State run defense in the first game of the season, going for 203 yards, albeit on 4.1 yards a pop.

But after the Oregon game, Ryan Day overhauled the defensive coaching staff. He installed a new play caller, and actually things turned around pretty well for them defensively. Over the next 9 games for Ohio State, they allowed just 2.43 yards per rush attempt to opponents. They went up against Michigan State, who had Kenneth Walker, and held him to 25 yards rushing on just 6 attempts. The same Kenneth Walker, by the way, that ran for 197 yards (8.6 YPC) and 5 touchdowns against Michigan’s vaunted run defense.

The main reason I picked Ohio State to beat Michigan in that game was because it appeared as if Ohio State’s run defense had not only been fixed from where it was against Oregon, but was actually a strength of the team. And obviously I expected CJ Stroud, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to go crazy through the air.

But somehow, Michigan was able to shut down that incredible Ohio State passing attack and keep the game close enough that they didn’t have to abandon the run, and eventually they were able to have a ton of success running the ball in the second half.

Ohio State’s whole strategy that year centered on just blowing teams away off the rip, because they knew most teams in the Big Ten were (and still are) run-centric and are not built to play from a deficit. You get up 21-3 on a Big Ten team and they have to abandon the run. The game is effectively over. But they were not able to do that against Michigan because somehow, Michigan was able to shut down one of the most incredible passing attacks in the history of college football.

So when people say, “Come on, Ohio State lost that 2021 game because they couldn’t stop the run. Cheating had nothing to do with that game.”

I disagree. I think cheating was the reason Michigan was able to hold Ohio State’s offense in check for most of the first half, and that disrupted Ohio State’s entire game plan. Ohio State’s plan was to jump out to a 21-3 or 28-10 lead and then force Michigan to abandon the run. Make Cade McNamara throw the ball and it’s over. If Ohio State would’ve been able to do that–in other words, if Michigan didn’t know all their offensive plays–then Ohio State wouldn’t have even had to worry about stopping the run.

To me, in that game, the advantage Michigan had from cheating was not primarily for their offense going up against Ohio State’s defense. Having the defense’s signs can help you run the ball a bit; if you know it’s a run blitz from the right, you can just run it to the left. And if you know the defense is expecting a pass, just run it, and vice versa. But I think the main advantage Michigan had in that game was on the defensive side of the ball–knowing what plays the Ohio State offense was going to run.

So I do think cheating had a huge role in the 2021 game, even though the focus now is more on the 2022 game. The 2022 game was egregious–it didn’t make sense in the moment, but now it makes perfect sense after we learned about the cheating.

The larger point here, though, is that the proof of Michigan’s cheating is self-evident: they became an elite, playoff-level program overnight with no corresponding level-up in recruiting. They became better than Ohio State overnight even though Ohio State still outclassed them in talent across the board. That kind of thing simply does not happen in college football.

If Auburn suddenly started dominating Alabama out of nowhere, beating them by multiple touchdowns on a yearly basis, it would have to raise some alarm bells. If Auburn just started dominating the SEC and making the playoff without actually vaulting up the recruiting rankings, it would be highly suspect.

Ohio State didn’t compile a record of 17-2 against Michigan by accident. They did it because they were a better football program than Michigan for two straight decades.

That did not just cease to be the case overnight in 2021.

For a lopsided rivalry like that to suddenly flip 180 degrees like that out of nowhere–something’s up.

I am not going to sit here and tell you I knew Michigan was cheating. Because I never suspected that. The thought never crossed my mind.

But I did have a feeling that something wasn’t right. It wasn’t adding up. Ohio State still has the edge in recruiting, in perimeter speed and athleticism, on paper they should match up perfectly with Michigan–and yet they were getting destroyed by Michigan year in and year out. It just didn’t add up.

College football is a talent-driven sport. Talent almost always wins out.

Michigan fans are out here talking about how Ohio State got soft, Harbaugh started running “Beat Ohio” drills, Harbaugh changed up the culture–bullshit.

Don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.

The only thing that fucking changed was Michigan started cheating.

If Michigan had started to recruit at a top-5 level, and was bringing in generational freakshow talents all over the place, then that would make sense.

But a top-15/20 program doesn’t just suddenly start dominating a top-3 program overnight. 

Expected rebuttal:

“But Michigan is a better program than Auburn! There’s less of a gap between Ohio State and Michigan than there is between Auburn and Alabama!”

Maybe right now there is, but answer me this: who has won more National Championship in the past 15 years, Michigan or Auburn? Auburn. Who has been to more National Championship games in the past 15 years, Michigan or Auburn? Auburn.

Auburn may be down the past few years but for most of the 2010s, Auburn was a better football program than Michigan was.

Auburn from 2010-2019: 87-45 overall, 2 SEC Championships, 1 National Championship.

Michigan record from 2010-2019: 85-44 overall, zero Big Ten Championships, zero National Championships.

Michigan is trying to argue, in their letter to the Big Ten, that the Big Ten doesn’t actually have the power to impose a punishment on them over this. So essentially they’re trying to skate on a technicality. Michigan–and all their water-carriers in the media, apparently–wants everything to be put on hold until the NCAA concludes its investigation, whenever the hell that is.

If Michigan gets their way, then it will be a complete and utter failure of the rules and institutions of college football. If there is no process or mechanism in place to swiftly punish a team that is caught red-handed in the act of cheating in the middle of a season, then that’s a failure of the system.

It could be that this Michigan situation is so unprecedented that nobody ever thought to make a rule for if and when a situation like this does arise.

If you think about it, pretty much every rule that’s ever been made anywhere was made in response to some transgression, or some horrible tragedy that previously wasn’t against the rules. Something took place that had never happened before, and in the wake of it, legislative/governing bodies had to craft and implement rules to ensure that that thing doesn’t happen again.

You think about the first time a college student ever plagiarized a paper. It’s like, well, shit, I guess it’s not against the rules to do that, but this is clearly wrong and we can’t allow people to do this, so we’re going to have to come up with rules against it.

You think about the first stop sign that ever appeared on the road. There was a time in the early years of cars where there were no stop signs. And then one day, two cars crashed into one another at an intersection and somebody probably lost their life. So then the regulators and rule makers had to come together and figure out a way to prevent something like that happening again, and the solution was stop signs. “Okay, from now on, the cars on the road going north-south don’t have to stop at this intersection. But the cars on the road going east-west have to stop at the intersection and wait for the coast to clear before crossing it.”

So maybe because nobody has ever done what Michigan did (or, rather, nobody has ever gotten caught doing it until Michigan), there is no mechanism or set of rules in place to deal with it when it happens.

It’s pretty messed on Michigan’s part that this is what they have to resort to. And it may be the case that Michigan is just grasping at straws. Perhaps the Big Ten has already analyzed its options here and concluded that it does in fact have the power to enact swift disciplinary action on Michigan. After all, the Big Ten has apparently already retained the services of a law firm for assistance in this matter, so they’re not flying blind or out of their depth on this.

But still–to think that Michigan might somehow be able to avoid punishment this season, it’s just disgusting. They are filthy, rotten cheaters, everybody knows it, and they’re trying to skate on a technicality.

Basically what they’re saying here is, “Because what we’ve done is so bad and so unprecedented, you (the Big Ten) don’t even have a rule or policy in place to punish it.” If they are able to skate on that type of technicality, it’s a travesty.

It’s all because they think they can win the National Championship this year. That’s the only reason they’re fighting this as hard as they are. If they were 6-3 right now, Jim Harbaugh would’ve been fired already. But they’re undefeated and they think they can win a Natty this year, so the name of the game is just delay, obstruct, obscure, obfuscate and lie.

They know Harbaugh is gone after the season, they know the NCAA is going to bring the hammer down on them, and that football program is going to be in shambles for the next decade-plus. This is the last hurrah, in their eyes. Or, since they love the Jordan brand so much, the “Last Dance.”

They were never going to win a National Championship either way–with or without Stalions, but the delusion of the Michigan Man knows no bounds. They look in the mirror and they see Alabama. They truly believe with all their hearts that they are the gold standard of college football. 

And you know that for the next 20 years, these delusional morons will be claiming they would’ve won the National Championship this year if the whole world wasn’t out to get them.

I hope this all comes back to bite them in the ass royally–this stubbornness, this refusal to simply come clean and accept their punishment for something everybody knows they did. What they’re doing right now is, effectively, resisting arrest. And when you resist arrest in the real world, it’s always worse for you. The judge hits you with extra time on your sentence, and Michigan deserves to get whacked over the head by the NCAA even harder because of how they’re acting right now.

Final thought: is this just an act by Michigan? A lot of the “smart people” around college football Twitter seem to be in agreement that the Big Ten knows it can’t do anything to Michigan, so it’s only acting like it’s going to punish Michigan to appease the 13 coaches out there who are livid and demanding Harbaugh’s head on a platter. When Michigan appeals this in court, the reasoning goes, then the Big Ten will be able to say, “Hey, we tried, but there’s nothing more we can do.”

Because apparently the Big Ten secretly sides with Michigan here or something?

I don’t really get it, if only because there’s no real reason for the Big Ten to side with Michigan against the wishes of the other 13 programs. If you think of this in cynical, political terms–which is what a lot of people are doing, that’s where the whole “the Big Ten is only pretending to punish Michigan to appease the other 13 schools”–then why, from a cynical and political perspective, would you fake that? For one thing, the other 13 schools would sniff it out–if snarky reporters on Twitter can figure it out, don’t you think Ohio State and Penn State and Rutgers and the rest could also figure it out?

It makes more sense that the Big Ten is genuinely on the side of the 13 other Big Ten schools. Why would they side with Michigan when Michigan is going to get nuked by the NCAA, Jim Harbaugh is going to bolt to the NFL, and the program is going to be a smoking crater for the next decade? And then Tony Petitti would have all 13 other schools in the Big Ten against him–it would just be him and the smoking crater. His tenure as Big Ten Commissioner would not last very long. Just ask Kevin Warren, who tried to cancel the football season in 2020 because of Covid. He was eventually overruled, and only lasted about 3 years on the job.

So I have no doubt that Tony Petitti is genuinely on the side of the 13 non-Michigan schools in the conference, if for no other reason than that you’d rather have 13 programs happy with you and 1 program angry at you than 1 program happy with you and 13 angry with you.

But my question is, what if all this bluster and defiance from Michigan is a front? What if it’s them trying to show their fanbase that they’re fighting this, when behind the scenes they’re acquiescing. What if Michigan knows they’ve got no chance in court, so they’re promising their fans they’re going to fight this and take it to court, but then when the court sides against them, they can say, “Oh, what the hell? No way! Damn you, court!”

Because we know Harbaugh isn’t the most popular guy with the Michigan brass. The Michigan brand is being dragged through the mud, they’re going to be known as the cheaters for generations to come–Jim Harbaugh has permanently tarnished the Michigan name like no other coach before him. Getting rid of Jim Harbaugh–which is something the big wigs have wanted to do for a while now, given that they made him take a 50% pay cut in 2020–is the best way to make this whole firestorm simmer down. This is the most embarrassing and humiliating moment for the University of Michigan possibly ever, and I’m sure there are a lot of boosters and bigwigs, who have never liked Harbaugh to begin with, that just want this to stop.

But because the football team is doing well, and the fanbase still ardently supports Harbaugh, nobody affiliated with Michigan can be caught disavowing Harbaugh right now. It would cause a mutiny in the fanbase. The fans think they’re circling the wagons, they’re going to fight this, they’re just being targeted because of how amazingly amazing they are, everyone else is just jealous of them, they’re going to win the National Championship no matter what, etc.

Could it be that the top brass at the university is just pretending to stand with Harbaugh, knowing that when the Big Ten suspends Harbaugh, there’s nothing they can do about it? I think in terms of the school bigwigs and the donors and the real power players at Michigan, they want two things: for Jim Harbaugh to be sent packing, and for the humiliation to end. They’ve basically just got to feign support for Harbaugh for a little while, and then Tony Petitti will take care of all their problems for them.

If Harbaugh is suspended indefinitely, and it turns out Michigan can’t get a judge to overrule the suspension, then Harbaugh has to be fired. Or he has to resign. Either way he’s done. That’s the end of Jim Harbaugh at Michigan. An indefinite suspension is the same thing as firing him, because he wouldn’t be able to coach again until the NCAA concluded its investigation, and who knows how long that would be? Plus, once they do conclude the investigation, Michigan is going to get nuked. That’s why an indefinite suspension is the same thing as Harbaugh getting fired.

This would solve two problems at once for the proud, well-to-do Michigan bigwigs and shot-callers. They’d finally be rid of that abrasive weirdo Harbaugh who shoves hotdogs in his pockets, and the media frenzy over the cheating scandal would begin to die down.

I don’t know. It’s just a theory. It’s possible that everyone at Michigan–from the message board posters up to the university President up to the board of regents and the deep-pocketed boosters–is determined to fight this thing tooth and nail because they’ve got a National Championship to win. They may truly all be pulling in the same direction on this.

I just thought it was an interesting perspective to consider given how many “smart people” think the Big Ten is only pretending to try to punish Michigan.

Okay, one last thought before I wrap this up. I mean it this time.

What about the other conferences? We know there’s heavy pressure on Tony Petitti from within the Big Ten to take decisive action against Michigan. But what about the other conference commissioners that he no doubt rubs shoulders with regularly?

Right now, this Michigan cheating scandal is a Big Ten issue–it’s contained to the Big Ten. Michigan’s cheating has primarily harmed Big Ten teams.

However, if Michigan skates here, and they are able to get into the playoff, the other conferences are going to be livid. I’ve already talked about this in the past where if you’re a coach and you miss out on a playoff spot that goes to Michigan, you’re going to have fire coming out of your ears, eyes, nose and mouth.

But let’s go through a little scenario here. Say Ohio State runs the table and goes 13-0 winning the Big Ten and securing the #1 seed in the playoff. Michigan beats Penn State but loses close to Ohio State to finish 11-1. Florida State goes 13-0 and gets the 2 seed. So we’ve got 2 of the 4 playoff spots filled. But in the SEC, Alabama beats Georgia by 10 points in the SEC Championship game, they both finish the regular season 12-1, Alabama secures the third playoff spot. 

Then in the Pac 12, Oregon gets upset by USC this weekend to get a second loss, Washington gets upset by Utah this weekend and they get a loss, and then in the Pac 12 Championship Oregon beats Washington giving them a second loss, and the two best teams in the Pac 12 have 2 losses, thus eliminating the conference from contention for the playoff. Then let’s say the Big 12 cannibalizes itself–Texas and Oklahoma rematch in the conference title game and Oklahoma wins again, giving Texas a second loss, but Oklahoma can’t get in since they’ve already got two losses.

Three of the playoff spots are already filled by Ohio State, Florida State and Alabama, but you’ve got two one-loss non-conference champion teams in Michigan and Georgia vying for the final playoff spot. Michigan can point to the fact that they lost close to Ohio State, the #1 team in the country. It’s considered to be the “best loss” in the country. Plus, Ohio State got into the playoff last year after losing by 22 to Michigan in Columbus. 

Georgia, on the other hand, wasn’t as competitive in its loss to Alabama, but they did still go 12-0 in the regular season in the SEC, they are the back-to-back defending National Champions, let’s also say they were playing without Brock Bowers. Georgia completely outclasses Michigan on the talent composite, we all know Georgia would manhandle Michigan if they played, but for some reason, the committee gives the fourth and final playoff spot to Michigan, and Georgia gets left out. The committee cites Michigan’s superior game control– “We felt Michigan was more dominant throughout the season and they have a more forgivable loss.”

(I don’t think the committee would do this but just humor me.)

If a cheating Michigan team gets a playoff spot over Georgia, that’s like the college football equivalent of a nuclear bomb detonating. The outrage would be off the charts. Greg Sankey would be on the phone with Tony Petitti just ripping him two new assholes, saying you’re a weak, ineffectual pussy that you didn’t drop the hammer on those cheating fucks, how could you let those cocksucking motherfucking cheating fucks keep playing and get into the playoff, this is fucking bullshit, I’ll have your head, you better lawyer up bitch, etc. Kirby Smart would be holding on line 2 waiting to say the same thing to Petitti.

I don’t know how things are going to shake out, but we can all agree that there is a very real possibility of Michigan getting a playoff spot over a team from another conference, and the team and conference that got snubbed would be absolutely livid.

Tony Petitti has an obligation to the other conference commissioners to make sure the cheating bastards don’t steal a playoff spot from Georgia, or Alabama, or Oregon, or Texas, or Washington, or whomever. In vacuum, as the Big Ten commissioner, Petitti would absolutely want as many Big Ten teams in the playoff as possible.

But not if one is a cheater. He would be a pariah among the other conference commissioners, and that’s not what you want in your first year on the job. Greg Sankey is more or less the commissioner of the Power Five–he’s the longest tenured conference commissioner, he runs the SEC which is the best conference, he’s definitely the most powerful guy in the sport. And he would want Petitti’s head on a platter if Petitti does not get a lid on this Michigan mess.

Again, it’s a Big Ten problem right now, but when it gets down to selection day, there’s a very real chance that the Michigan Problem goes national and becomes everybody else’s problem as well. There are only 4 playoff spots, which means a lot of teams are already getting left out as it is. If Michigan takes one of those four playoff spots, there will be hell to pay from all the teams and conferences that felt they got snubbed.

Even if Michigan goes 13-0 and wins the Big Ten, all the other teams that got left out can easily just say, “Well we could’ve gone 13-0 too if we cheated like they did!”

You’re not really hearing a lot of outrage from coaches and fans in other conferences over Michigan right–well, there’s some, but it’s more like they’re just kind of laughing from afar as the Big Ten descends into civil war. That’s because most fans aren’t forward-thinking, and coaches in other conferences just have way too much to worry about right now. Coaches are focused on winning this week, and that’s it.

But I would bet you that, behind the scenes, there is heavy pressure on both Petitti and the playoff committee itself to make sure there’s no way, shape or form Michigan gets into the playoff. The CFP committee has made its position clear that they’re just going to pretend Michigan isn’t cheating, they don’t want to open up that whole can of worms–at least not right now.

What the bigwigs must really be hoping for is for Michigan to lose to Penn State this weekend. I’m pretty sure the refs will have it out for them, because if Michigan loses a game, that solves a lot of problems. If Michigan is able to beat Penn State, then it will be all on Ohio State to eliminate them and avert the doomsday scenario in which essentially the CFP committee will have to just straight up say, “Sorry, but Michigan ain’t allowed in.” That will cause a ton of outrage from, obviously, Michigan, but also Fox because Fox is the only network taking Michigan’s side here.

Nobody wants that.

But I am pretty confident that behind the scenes, other conference commissioners are already in Petitti’s ear telling him, “You cannot let Michigan get into the playoff under any circumstances. Suspend Harbaugh, rule them exempt from the Big Ten Championship game–do whatever you have to do to keep them out because we cannot be having them take a playoff spot from one of our teams.”

So that’s another reason I think Tony Petitti is serious about this. I think there’s a ton of pressure on him to handle this Michigan situation, and it’s not only coming from within the Big Ten, but from other conferences as well. I don’t think Michigan fans on social media fully grasp the degree to which everyone else in college football despises them over this.