I do this annually before the draft, and I like to think I’m pretty good at it–or at least that I can see when the “consensus” is wrong. In 2021, when the “consensus” was Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, I told you it should have been Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones and then Trey Lance.

And I think I nailed that. Debatably, Justin Fields might be a bit better than Trevor Lawrence, at least in terms of raw talent; he just plays for a much worse team and has dysfunction all around him from the owner down. And I never bought into the hype about Lawrence being the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning.

In 2022, there was only one first round QB (Kenny Pickett) so I didn’t bother to do a QB eval post.

But last year, before the 2023 draft, I told you that CJ Stroud was unequivocally and undeniably the best QB prospect in the draft and should’ve been taken #1 overall without hesitation. While most of the discourse was about how Ohio State quarterbacks can’t succeed in the NFL (as if there’s some curse on them), I was telling you that CJ Stroud was the real deal. I am an Ohio State and Big Ten fan and had watched just about every game he played in college, and I knew he was special.

I didn’t know CJ Stroud would have the best rookie quarterback season in NFL history, but I thought it was clear as day that he was the best QB of the draft.

I also went as far as to rank Bryce Young 3rd in the class, behind both Stroud and Anthony Richardson. That may or may not prove to be true, as Anthony Richardson’s rookie season was plagued by injuries, but I still stand by that take: I think if Anthony Richardson can learn to protect himself and avoid injuries better, he will turn out to be better than Bryce Young as well.

All this is to say, I’m patting myself on the back here, but I just wanted to establish some credibility and provide some receipts. I’m trying to show you why you should take what I write here seriously. I am not some football expert or anything like that, but I think I have a pretty good eye for QB talent.

I was originally going to discuss my top-6 prospects all in one post, but after seeing how long I went on Caleb Williams, I am going to break this up into separate posts.

So without further ado, let’s talk about Caleb Williams, the best QB prospect in the draft.

As a Bears fan and an Ohio State fan, I was a bit conflicted by Caleb Williams. I love Justin Fields, and I still think he can become a highly productive NFL quarterback. I think his struggles had more to do with the Bears just being a dysfunctional organization with a shit roster than anything else.

But I would take Caleb Williams over him.

Do I love the nail painting and the fashion shoots while wearing a dress? Absolutely not. I’m hopeful he’ll get flamed enough by his teammates in the NFL and knock all that fufu shit out of him. But it’s really not a big deal all things considered.

Do I like the “sad boy”/Drake vibe he kind of gave off during the season as USC’s hopes and dreams went down in flames? No, I don’t. Crying to your mom on the sidelines after losing is a bad look. I get it. However, if you want to spin zone it–the guy clearly cares. He wants to win, and he hates losing. He made millions in NIL money already, he already knew he was going to be the top pick in the draft, and yet he still cared so much about that game. I want a guy that cares, flat out.

None of that stuff really changed my overall evaluation of Caleb Williams, though.

I know what wins in the modern NFL: Patrick Mahomes wins in the modern NFL. And Caleb Williams is the closest thing we’ve seen to Patrick Mahomes.

Obviously Mahomes is a 1 of 1 talent, and I’m not saying Caleb Williams is the next Mahomes.

But Mahomes is the new model now. The ideal quarterback is him, or as close to him as you can get.

The Bears already passed on Mahomes once. Now they find themselves in position to potentially avoid making the same mistake twice. The only way you can possibly “make up for” missing out on Mahomes is if Caleb Williams wins multiple Super Bowls, but I don’t want to put those expectations on the poor kid already. Believe me, Bears fans will be over the moon and more if he wins one Super Bowl. They won’t care about how they passed on Mahomes and could’ve had 3 Super Bowls (although I think the Bears are such a shit franchise that they would’ve found a way to ruin Mahomes–I really do believe that).

The Bears are where quarterback talent goes to die. No franchise in NFL history has been as bad at drafting and developing quarterbacks as the Bears have been. Jay Cutler is the best QB in franchise history bar none. That’s how bad the Bears have been at QB. They legitimately have not had a great quarterback since Sid Luckman in the 1940s.

Caleb Williams might very well be the one Bears fans have been waiting for. I know Bears fans have had that optimism about a lot of QBs that have come and gone in the past, but this time I think it’s for real.

But before we get into anything else, I want to talk about the evolution of the NFL quarterback over the past 30 years or so, because I think it’s important to understand where Caleb Williams fits into that process. 

Patrick Mahomes, from a pure quarterback evaluation standpoint, breaks all the rules. Nearly everything he does is unconventional, at least as far as traditional QB evaluation goes. Before Mahomes came into the league, the standard–the Holy Grail, from a QB evaluator’s perspective–was a guy like Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady. I’m talking mechanically, play style. If the QB coaches of the NFL back in 2005 got together and designed the perfect, ideal, optimal NFL quarterback, it would have looked like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. That was how it was in the 2000s and even into the 2010s.

That’s your standard, traditional pocket-passing quarterback. They did most of their work from under center: drop back, read the field, step up in the pocket, and deliver an accurate throw. This goes back even further than Brady and Manning–you’ve also had guys like Joe Montana and John Elway, who probably were the first “ideal QBs” of the modern era (i.e. since the invention of the West Coast offense).

However, dating back to the 70s, and maybe even earlier, there were always guys that kind of “broke the mold” and had a good deal of success. First was Fran Tarkenton, as far as a QB with creativity and mobility. Then guys like Dan Marino and Steve Young took that to another level in the 80s. These guys didn’t just stand there planted in the pocket–they would roll out and extend plays and make throws on the run, too.

Then in the 90s came Brett Favre, who really kind of redefined the quarterback position. He broke all the rules, probably gave his coaches fits with how unorthodox and reckless his play style was. If quarterbacking is a science, Brett Farve made it into an art. He did whatever the hell he wanted out there–sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn’t. His greatness was undeniable–he led the Packers to consecutive Super Bowls in the 90s, winning one of them and losing the other narrowly. He also won 4 MVP awards. 

The downside with Favre is that he threw a ton of interceptions, and often at the worst times. You think about the 2007 NFC Championship against the Giants, he threw some very costly picks in that game. And the INT he threw while playing for the Vikings in the 2009 NFC Championship game against the Saints may have been the worst of them all.

But then Aaron Rodgers comes along after Brett Favre, and he kind of redefined the position again. Because Rodgers, sure he could throw from the pocket, but he was most dangerous on the move and improvising. Rodgers was like Brett Favre 2.0: he had that gunslinger and moxie in him, but he was also way more refined and efficient than Brett Favre was–not to mention more mobile as well. 

For anybody who watched Brett Favre and thought, “What if we just had Brett Favre, but without so many interceptions?” Aaron Rodgers was the answer to your prayers.

It’s often said that Aaron Rodgers is your favorite quarterback’s favorite quarterback, and it’s because he is just so gifted that you can’t help but marvel at his talent. Most of the young quarterbacks coming up, when asked who they model their game after, they say Aaron Rodgers. There’s really nothing the guy can’t do.

Tom Brady himself even said that Aaron Rodgers would “throw for 7,000 yards” in the Patriots system, and that, straight up, Rodgers “is so much more talented than me.” 

Aaron Rodgers is the guy that all the other quarterbacks are jealous of.

I would also say Matthew Stafford could be in that class with Rodgers as well, but he was wasting away in Detroit for most of his career so he didn’t really get the publicity Rodgers did.

Yes, a lot of Aaron Rodgers’ play style was considered “unorthodox” given that the standard for so many years was Peyton Manning and Brady. But whatever Rodgers was doing, it was working–orthodoxy be damned. You just look at the way he plays–he throws off-platform, on the move, against his body, weird arm angles. All that stuff was at one time considered unorthodox and it would’ve gotten you chewed out by your coach. 

But Rodgers was so damn good, what could you really say? For as many risks as he took due to the supreme confidence he had in his arm, he never turned the ball over. His career TD to INT ratio is, still today, the best in NFL history by a lot.

Everybody wanted to replicate his play style, for obvious reasons. But very few, if any, could for a long time.

What Rodgers really did was make the “unorthodox” style the new orthodoxy. No longer were guys like him, Favre, Marino and Young the exceptions to the rule in the NFL, now they are the ideal quarterback. Your coach now wants you to be more like Aaron Rodgers. 

Nowadays, being a pure pocket passer is almost a negative. You have to have some mobility–maybe not Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields level mobility, but you can’t just be planted in the pocket like an oak tree anymore. You have to be able to make some off-platform throws, extend plays and be creative.

A pure pocket passer, if he’s good enough, can get you far in the NFL.

But in order to get to the peak of the mountain, you need a guy who can step out of the pocket.

And Aaron Rodgers became the prototype. If coaches could design their ideal QB in a lab, he would come out looking like Aaron Rodgers, not Peyton Manning.

Rodgers simply was the perfect balance of pocket passer and scrambler–he was good enough that he could sit back in the pocket and pick you apart, traditional style, but he was also quick enough that he could escape, buy time, find space and improvise when the play broke down. He wasn’t so athletic and fast, though, that all he wanted to do was run. I think a lot of times these QBs blessed with great speed and athleticism would rather run it than throw it–because they’re so good at running. Rodgers wasn’t like that. He was athletic enough that he could run, but not so athletic that he got “run happy”. He wasn’t really looking to run.

To me, the perfect term for what the league is looking for would be “mobile quarterback,” but unfortunately that term has already been taken to describe running quarterbacks like Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson.

I think the term “mobile QB” just applies so perfectly to what the league is looking for nowadays: you want a guy who can get it done from anywhere, not just in the pocket. You want mobility in your quarterback–mobility to extend plays, escape pressure, and when all else fails, tuck it and pick up a few yards on the ground.

Mobile quarterbacks are even more dangerous than running quarterbacks, because the mobile quarterback escapes the pocket and is still looking to throw. A running quarterback escapes the pocket, tucks the ball and then takes off. And sure, that’s great, that’ll get you yards and first downs. But the mobile quarterbacks who look to extend plays and start the scramble drill–those are the most difficult to stop.

When you have a quarterback who can avoid the rush, it’s virtually impossible to defend that. Traditionally in the NFL, the game plan revolved around the fact that the typical pocket quarterback would have about 2-3 seconds to get the ball out before the pass rush got to him. And so the ideal quarterback was one who could process and read the defense quickly, and release the ball quickly. From a defensive perspective, the goal was to get home as quickly as possible, and defensive backs know they have to cover for 2-5 seconds.

Now it’s all changed. Yes, obviously processing and reading defenses quickly, along with a quick release, will always–always–be extremely important traits for quarterbacks. But they’re no longer the be-all, end-all. If a quarterback can extend the play and start the scramble drill, he’s got way more time to read the defense and find the open man.

For defenses, the whole game has changed as well. DBs have to cover for way longer, because a lot of the time, when you’re playing against a mobile QB, offensive plays are actually like two plays: there’s the original scripted play, and then there’s the scramble drill after the original scripted play breaks down. Your secondary might cover all their receivers perfectly on the original scripted play–totally blanketed, not a single guy open, QB has absolutely nowhere to go.

But then the QB escapes the pocket, and he starts gesturing wildly downfield to his receivers. The receivers start to improvise; they’re running with him towards the sideline trying to get open. Or sometimes they just take off downfield. Sometimes guys just look around and run to the open spots on the field–whatever. It’s pure backyard football at this point; nobody’s running any routes, it’s just: “Everybody get open, by hook or crook.”

And this is the thing that’s so difficult to defend. It’s pure improv. And the longer a defender has to cover his man, the harder his job is. Because in order for a defender to succeed, he has to have his man covered the whole time. But in order for the offense to succeed, they just have to find one little window of opportunity, even if it’s only for a second, and bam.

Now obviously NFL defenses have adapted somewhat to the new style of offensive football, and it’s put pass rushers and pocket-wreckers at an even higher premium on the defensive side of the ball. You know an inside linebacker hasn’t won Defensive Player of the Year since Luke Kuechly in 2013? It’s pretty much all edge rushers and defensive linemen nowadays, with the occasional cornerback sprinkled in there from time to time. Back in the 2000s, DPOTY winners were predominantly safeties and inside linebackers–guys like Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Brian Urlacher, Ray Lewis, Derrick Brooks, etc. Now, DPOTY is, for the most part, an edge rusher’s award.

The most impactful defensive players are pocket-wreckers like Aaron Donald and Chris Jones, and edge rushers like Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett and TJ Watt. Because think about it: if offenses are so dangerous because of the rise of mobile quarterbacks who can extend plays, then the best counter to that is to get to the quarterback quickly and prevent him from escaping. And that’s always been the goal for defenses, of course, but now it’s even more important because even the best pass coverage is still vulnerable to the scramble drill.

All this is to say that the game has changed quite a bit. Aaron Rodgers was really the tipping point to where mobile quarterbacks became the new orthodoxy.

But then came Patrick Mahomes. If Aaron Rodgers was like Brett Favre 2.0, then Mahomes was Favre 3.0.

Mahomes is even more unconventional than Aaron Rodgers. When he first became the starter for the Chiefs in 2018, he was doing shit we had never seen quarterbacks do before–and that was after about 10 years of Aaron Rodgers doing shit we had never seen quarterbacks do before. 

Remember the first time Mahomes switched hands and completed a pass lefty? It was unreal. The arm angles he throws from, the weird platforms he throws off of, the way he sidesteps and backpedals where he’ll cross his legs to angle himself better–he was redefining the quarterback position before our very eyes. It was like, take Aaron Rodgers, make him even faster, and supercharge the “gunslinger” part of him, and that’s Mahomes.

Once we got fully introduced to Patrick Mahomes, it was game over. He became the standard. That is now what a quarterback should look like, and how a quarterback should play. Why? Because he’s unstoppable. He always finds a way, whatever it takes. His creativity is off the charts.

The reality of the NFL now is that you have to beat him in order to win a Super Bowl.

And so if you want any hope of beating him, you are going to need a quarterback who is at least close to him. Doesn’t have to be an identical clone of him, and at any rate, he’s a 1 of 1 talent so don’t even try. But guys like Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are at least close, in their own unique ways.

The new formula in the NFL is what the Chiefs have: Mahomes, one great pass-catcher, a solid offensive line, and a defensive line that gets after the quarterback. We can’t forget the impact of a guy like Chris Jones and that Chiefs defense–the Chiefs have a really good defense, and if you think back to the Super Bowl, Chris Jones was constantly wrecking the Niners pocket and basically had their passing attack shut down for a good chunk of the game.

That’s the formula: build up your offensive and defensive lines, get a great pass catcher or two, and then have a quarterback who can make magic happen. Right now, the Chiefs have the best quarterback in the league and probably the best pocket-wrecking lineman in the league, and those are the two most important positions on the field, so it really shouldn’t surprise us that they have won consecutive Super Bowls.

The quarterback, of course, is the key to it all, and the proof is that the 49ers have all of that except the quarterback who can make the magic happen. And they come up short every year. Their roster is amazing, they just don’t have a true difference-maker at QB. Brock Purdy is nice, but he’s not anywhere near Mahomes. (Honestly, as sick and tired of the Chiefs as I am, I’m kind of glad that San Fran continually runs into a brick wall deep in the postseason, because that’s what Kyle Shanahan and their front office deserve for passing on Justin Fields and taking Trey Lance in 2021. What an idiotic decision–they should be punished for it.)

Caleb Williams is a Mahomes-type of quarterback. I’m not saying he will be exactly like Mahomes, I’m not saying he will be as good as Mahomes.

I’m saying he’s Mahomes-esque.

If you want to build your team like the Chiefs, you need the Mahomes-esque quarterback.

Again, I love Justin Fields. I think he’s an awesome dude, and as a player he’s like Lamar Jackson with a better arm. But–like with Lamar–I just don’t think he’s quite good enough from inside the pocket.

Now, I know I just got done talking about how the NFL is all about QB mobility, extending plays, getting outside the pocket and throwing on the run.

But being able to pass from the pocket is still extremely valuable. In fact, it’s a necessity.

The reality is that with Mahomes, most of his throws are from the pocket. His highlights are from when he escapes the pocket and starts the scramble drill, but you cannot expect to have every play go like that. It’s impossible. You have to be able to throw from the pocket and outside the pocket. You have to be able to do both. That is what makes Mahomes–and Aaron Rodgers–so special.

Again, the highlight plays and “Wow!” plays happen outside the pocket, but constantly scrambling and extending plays and making throws off-platform is no way to live. Your bread and butter still has to be from within the pocket; on-script, traditional football plays. That’s your meat and potatoes–still today, in spite of the game and the QB position evolving. 

You will not be able to get through 60 minutes of NFL football for 17 games plus the playoffs if your game plan revolves around your quarterback running in circles and scrambling around every play. It’s no way to live.

Think about a starting pitcher who can throw a curveball, a junk ball, a slider, a screwball, a knuckleball–but he doesn’t have a fastball. You still need to have the good old fashioned fastball, because you simply can’t throw curveballs and sliders 80-100 times a game for a full season. You need the meat and potatoes; you can’t be all flair and pizazz.  

The off-script scramble drill stuff is what takes you to another level. It’s the counter-punch, the “next gear” for when the original play doesn’t work out. A lot of the time, your original play will work, but sometimes it doesn’t and the defense blows it up–the answer to that, the counter-punch, is your quarterback being able to escape the rush, get outside the pocket and make something out of nothing.

But the scramble is not your Plan A. It’s your Plan B.

Plan A still has to be traditional, on-script football plays.

I don’t think Mahomes gets enough credit for how well he does the “drop back, read the defense, step up in the pocket, deliver a throw in under 3 seconds” part of the game. Without having that as your rock solid foundation, you’re screwed.

Caleb Williams, admittedly, isn’t the best from the pocket. He needs to improve there. I have no idea if he will be able to, but it seems to me that would be the “easy part” and that he has the “hard part”–being a magician, an escape artist, throwing on the run–already figured out.

Williams, like Mahomes, does shit that I’ve never seen quarterbacks do before. I remember that one play from Oklahoma where Williams ripped the ball out of his running back’s hands and ran it for a first down. The running back was about to be tackled short of the first down line, Caleb saw the ball and just took it. I have never seen anything like that before. People talk a lot about “moxie” in quarterbacks nowadays–to me that is the book definition of moxie. And it struck me as something Mahomes would do, if given the opportunity.

I’ve seen Caleb Williams jump up in the air from a standstill and complete a ball downfield. He just does shit that no quarterback, other than Mahomes, would even think to do. He fumbles a snap, picks the ball up, backpedals and then launches down the field for a 75 yard touchdown.

Like, what the fuck is this? Nobody else does this:

It’s not only something that most other quarterbacks can’t do, it’s something that most other quarterbacks wouldn’t even think to do.

It’s that confidence, that cheekiness, to try things that no other quarterback would try, that in my opinion makes Caleb Williams a can’t-miss prospect. It’s the level of creativity, this ability to see opportunities where most other quarterbacks would see nothing–this is what makes him special.

I am not saying he’s a slam dunk. The nails, the crying, the dress–we’ve gone over that. He seems arrogant. But then again, that’s where his supreme confidence and cheekiness in his football ability comes from. If we love the guy for how flamboyant and arrogant he is on the football field, how much can we fault him for displaying those traits off the field as well? If you want a guy who is more toned-down and humble off the field, I completely understand, but it’s also possible that you will get a more toned-down and humble player on the field, too. So you can’t really try to change who a guy is.

At the end of the day, these “character concerns” we’re all talking about with Caleb Williams are really minor. He’s never been in trouble with the law and is by all accounts a good upstanding American. He’s just gone a little bit “California” in his time at USC, is what I think. Maybe that personality won’t really mesh in Chicago, but if the guy turns the Bears into a perennial Super Bowl contender, believe me, nobody will give a shit about the nails. In fact you’ll probably see grown men in Chicago painting their nails. Winning cures all–those personality traits that were once thought of as quirky, strange, sussy, will magically become endearing and cool. For fuck’s sake, Tom Brady kisses his son on the lips and has had more plastic surgery than a Kardashian, and I think he turned out okay. Patrick Mahomes’ dad is on his 3rd DUI, his brother is off his rocker, and his wife is a frigid bitch–and it’s still all good on the football field.

What I’m saying here is, I think we are overblowing all these “character concerns” about Caleb Williams right now. Pretty much every quarterback has character concerns if you scrutinize them enough. Shit, Peyton Manning borderline sexually assaulted a training staff girl at Tennessee and that just went away.

The whole nail painting thing with Caleb–I’m not going to deny it’s sussy, it’s not something I would ever do. But it also doesn’t just come from nowhere. It’s not like he was like, “Yeah I’m gonna start painting my nails.” It comes from his mom, who runs a nail salon, so I’m sure since he was around that a young age, it just kind of became a normal thing for him. So it’s less weird than it seems on the surface.

Let’s get back to football before we wrap this up.

Caleb Williams leaves a good amount to be desired as far as his pocket passing goes. He needs to get better there because you cannot win Super Bowls on moxie and scrambling alone. You need the meat and potatoes.

Also, I think Caleb Williams is going to turn the ball over a lot as a rookie. A lot. He already has fumbling and ball security issues, and with the supreme arm confidence he has, he is going to learn the hard way that those windows that were open in college are a lot smaller in the NFL. Naturally, he is prone to playing “hero ball” sometimes, and while it usually works and he’s able to get away with it in college, you have to be smarter about it in the NFL–you have to really pick and choose your moments, because hero ball all the time doesn’t fly.

Sometimes it’s okay to just take a couple of yards, or no gain, or even a throw-away, instead of trying to force a throw or make something happen and turning the ball over. You really have to pick and choose your battles wisely in the NFL, and understand you never go broke taking a profit–modest gains are okay. Not every play has to be Sportscenter Top 10. I think it’s going to take Caleb Williams a little bit to learn this.

But this is the reality of the NFL today: it is showtime immediately for rookie quarterbacks now. He is going to have to go through all the trials, tribulations and growing pains on the big stage. Being a rookie quarterback entails a lot of trial and error, falling down and picking yourself back up. How will he be able to handle that? The key is that he does not let it kill his confidence.

If any of the “character concerns” about him have merit, in my view, it would have to be his perceived mental fragility–you know, the crying to his mother on the sidelines after a loss. Yes, I know he’s a competitor and he was bummed about losing, but to me, that’s soft. That’s fragile. You can do that behind closed doors, but to do it in front of the whole stadium and the whole country, it’s a bad look. He’s far from the first QB to cry to mom after losing a game, and he certainly won’t be the last, but still–you can’t be seen doing that. Like in Sopranos, when the mob boss Johnny Sack gets arrested at his daughter’s wedding and starts crying in front of everyone, the mobsters afterwards don’t like it: “My estimation of John Sacrimoni, as a man, just fucking plummeted.” A quarterback, like a mob boss, should not be seen crying to his mother.

And so if we want to read into that as much as possible, and interpret it as uncharitably as we can, I would say it could indicate a propensity to sulk and withdraw in the face of failure and adversity, and you absolutely cannot have that in an NFL QB. Mentally, you have to be resilient, you have to view failures as learning opportunities, and “embrace the suck.” Once your confidence goes away, you’re cooked.

Caleb Williams will not have an easy rookie season with the Bears, and so I am a little bit concerned about whether he has the mental fortitude to get through it and emerge on the other side with his confidence intact and having learned and grown from the adversity and failure. He is going to Chicago, where literally no quarterback has been great since World War II.

Caleb Williams is going to have to overcome so much. He is not going into some ready-made situation where it’s all set up for him to succeed. He is going to have to be like Peyton Manning, who went to an awful organization and team in the Colts. He is going to have to be like CJ Stroud, who overcame all the obstacles with the Texans. Another good example is Joe Burrow with the Bengals–he elevated that franchise.

Tom Brady, as great as he was, did not have to be great during his early years in New England. They had elite defenses back in the early 2000s, and they didn’t really ask a ton of Brady. When he stepped in, Brady did not have to carry some dysfunctional franchise, a lackluster head coach, and a dogshit roster.

Aaron Rodgers took over as the starter in Green Bay in 2008. The previous year, the Packers got all the way to overtime of the NFC Championship game and probably would’ve won it if Brett Favre didn’t throw so many interceptions. Aaron Rodgers definitely was not starting from square one in Green Bay.

Neither was Patrick Mahomes–he actually walked into a pretty great situation in Kansas City. They were a perennial playoff team before he got there with Alex Smith, obviously Andy Reid is an excellent coach, they had Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce already–Mahomes walked into an amazing situation for a rookie quarterback. 

And thing we all forget about Mahomes: he sat a year before starting. He sat behind Smith and learned, and I think that did wonders for his development. In fact, a lot of great quarterbacks sit a year before being given the keys to the car. Tom Brady sat a year, and yes that’s because he was a 6th round pick, but I still believe it was beneficial to allow him to learn, mature and develop. Aaron Rodgers sat for three whole years before starting.

Nowadays, it’s basically unheard of for a QB that gets drafted in the first round to sit a year before playing. We don’t see it anymore. They throw these poor kids to the wolves right off the bat, and to me that’s unfortunate. I do think Caleb Williams would benefit a lot from sitting a year and developing behind a veteran, but we know there’s basically zero chance of that happening, so it is what it is.

He is going to be asked to elevate a poorly-run franchise, and quarterbacks who can do that are extremely rare. You have to really be elite both as a football player and as a human being to elevate an entire franchise. 

Some franchises in the NFL are winners, and some are losers–with losing etched into their DNA, the stench of “loser” sunk deep into the fabric. All they know is losing, they’re used to losing, they expect to lose–they even start to believe they are losers, by nature.

The Bears are one of those franchises. To me, it starts at the very top with ownership, but that’s a topic for another day. Regardless of why, the bottom line is that the Bears are a fucking LOSER-ASS franchise, just like the Texans were a loser franchise before Stroud, the Colts were a loser franchise before Peyton, and the Bengals were a fucking loser ass franchise before Joe Burrow. The Jaguars were the epitome of a LOSER franchise and I think Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson have changed that to a major extent.

Dan Campbell is an excellent example, too: he turned arguably the most LOSER-ASS franchise in the league, the Lions, into a winner.

We know for a fact that it is possible for one great quarterback, or one great coach (preferably both) to turn a loser franchise around. To overcome shitty ownership, a shitty front office, shitty facilities, a shitty stadium–shitty, losery everything.

What Caleb Williams needs to be for Chicago is more than just a great quarterback. He needs to elevate the entire franchise. He needs to be the rising tide that lifts all the other boats with him. He needs to be a tone setter, a culture changer. He needs to turn losers into winners, and get them to expect winning. Losers expect to lose and are happy when they win; winners expect to win and are pissed as fuck when they lose.

How do you become a franchise that expects to win, rather than a franchise that expects to lose? Well, you win. You get used to winning and it becomes the norm. But before you can start winning, you have to truly believe that you’re going to start winning, and believe that you are not bound by fate to lose.

In order to start believing, you have to have someone or something to believe in–which is why it usually takes a great quarterback and/or a great coach to actually turn things around.

The Buccaneers were a classic loser franchise before Tom Brady. They had talent, but they were still a loser-ass franchise. Tom Brady changed all that–and not just from how he went about his business, his work ethic, his mentality, demanding accountability and all that. He changed it simply by choosing Tampa as a free agent. “Oh, shit! The GOAT wants to come play with us? He thinks he can win here–with us!?” Tom Brady simply choosing the Bucs was massive in turning that loser franchise into a winner and washing out the loser stench that had been lingering for so long. Because he didn’t go there to lose. Those players believed they were going to win just from the fact that Tom Brady thought he could win with them.

It’s a lot more difficult for a rookie QB to do this, obviously. They have to lead by example, but above all have that faith in the process that maybe the turnaround isn’t going to happen right away, and it won’t be an easy road, but if we keep grinding and keep putting in the work, it will pay off for us.

Can Caleb Williams do that? We have no idea. I’m fairly concerned, as we went over earlier, but you just don’t know what a guy is made of until he’s given a chance to show it. I didn’t think CJ Stroud was a guy who could be a true culture-changer in Houston. I thought he was a really good QB, but I didn’t know he would change the whole vibe and culture around that franchise.

We just don’t know until a guy gets the opportunity to prove himself.

But I think Caleb Williams has the talent to do it. And that talent he has is something that guys can believe in. They get a special talent like him on their team and they go, “Okay, we can win with this guy now. This guy changes everything.”

You can’t pass up Caleb Williams. Yes, I know this season was disappointing for him at USC, but a lot of that was how bad their defense was. Caleb Williams in 2023 actually had a slightly better completion percentage, passer rating, yards per attempt number, and more rushing TDs than he did in his 2022 Heisman season. USC went 8-5 because their defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed, not because of Caleb Williams.

I just think the talent that Caleb Williams has shown us makes him can’t-miss. He’s a special talent; he’s got more Mahomes/Aaron Rodgers in him than any QB prospect I’ve seen since Mahomes came into the league. It’s that ability to make something out of nothing–to escape the pocket when most other quarterbacks would take a sack or throw the ball away, and turn a broken play into a big gain. Mahomes is the master of being caught dead to rights on third and long, and somehow escaping and making a play. It’s what makes him so scary. Caleb Williams is like that, too.

Caleb Williams has the highest ceiling of any quarterback in this class, for sure. That I have no doubt about. He is certainly a bit on the raw side and has a lot to clean up and improve on. There will be growing pains, and I don’t think he will set the league on fire out the gate.

But if he pans out, he is a guy I can see leading a team to a Super Bowl, perhaps multiple Super Bowls. He has that type of potential. He has that kind of talent that can overcome so much around him. You think about Mahomes losing Tyreek Hill and then still winning back-to-back Super Bowls; that’s what I mean. That’s what I’m talking about here–a quarterback who is so good that he can overcome almost anything. It doesn’t matter what you throw at him, he will simply find a way.

I think Caleb Williams has that potential, and for that reason I wouldn’t pass him up. He has to go #1.

He might very well be the quarterback that Chicago has been waiting 70 years for–that Montana, Elway, Manning, Brady, Rodgers or Mahomes type of guy that singlehandedly changes the trajectory of an entire NFL franchise.

This might finally be it for the Bears.

I know it’s hyperbolic to say that, but this is the power of a great quarterback in today’s NFL. Quarterbacks in the modern NFL are OP–overpowered. It’s an offensively-driven league, it’s a passing league, and quarterbacks make so much more of a difference than any other single position on the field.

We always hear the word “rebuilding process” when it comes to the NFL, but the reality is, there’s no such thing. The “rebuilding process” is finding a great quarterback, period. That’s the fucking rebuild. The Texans went from picking second overall in the draft to the second round of the playoffs in one year. Why? Because they found a quarterback. CJ Stroud was the rebuild. They have other positions on their team that are deficient, but it doesn’t fucking matter because when you have a special quarterback, he can overcome that and lead you to wins anyway.

The Bengals were dogshit in 2019 and took Joe Burrow first overall in 2020. 18 months later they were in the Super Bowl. Joe Burrow was the fucking rebuild. People were like, “But they need an offensive line!” Nope, not going to stop Joey B (although it eventually did in the Super Bowl, unfortunately).

People think “rebuilding” is like, “Okay, we have to build up our offensive and defensive lines, then we need cornerbacks and receivers, then let’s get some linebackers, then we need to shore up our safeties, our tight ends, then let’s find a running back, and now we just need a great quarterback!”

No. You find THE quarterback and then everything else falls into place. All of the sudden, the deficiencies you have at other positions don’t matter as much. The Chiefs are awful at wide receiver, and honestly their offensive line wasn’t that great this year. But it didn’t matter. Mahomes overcomes all.

The Texans: okay weapons, a bad offensive line, a decent defense. Didn’t matter. CJ Stroud elevates.

The quarterback can make up for so much. 

This is what I mean when I say quarterbacks in the modern NFL are OP. They just are. You figure out the quarterback position and everything else just seems to magically fall into place, doesn’t it?

I think Caleb Williams has the potential to be this type of quarterback–one who can overcome even the dysfunction and loser-ness of the Chicago Bears. He has the talent where he could be the one quarterback who is actually able to succeed in Chicago–a place where countless quarterbacks have come and gone and none have been able to even have so much as a single 4,000+ yard passing season.

The good news is that Chicago has the #1 pick not because they were horrendously bad, but because they own Carolina’s pick. The Bears are still drafting top-10, so it’s not like they were good this year, but they went 7-10. That’s not horrible. There are pieces in Chicago. They won’t be starting from square one.

Still–it will take a truly special QB talent to be able to get it done in Chicago. I think Caleb Williams is the first truly special quarterback–other than Mahomes of course–that they’ve been in position to draft, maybe ever. Mahomes nobody really saw coming–obviously the Bears should’ve recognized his talent, but a lot of other teams didn’t understand how good he was.

Caleb Williams, we all know the talent. He is one of those QBs where basically all the other teams are jealous of the team with the first overall pick. Like with Joe Burrow in 2020, I was like, “Damn there is no way the Bengals will trade that pick. And they are about to see their fortunes turn around here. They are set for a long time at QB.”

Williams has the potential to be the first Bears QB in a very long time that opposing teams and fanbases actually fear–the way that Aaron Rodgers made Bears fans feel about the Packers. “Oh fuck, we have to deal with this guy again. We’re in trouble.” The Bears have basically never had a quarterback that strikes fear into the hearts of opposing teams and fans. Caleb Williams could be that guy, at long last.

When you have the #1 overall pick during a year where there’s a quarterback like this available, it’s like hitting the lottery. Not only is it very rare to get the #1 pick, you have to have it during a year where there actually is that can’t-miss quarterback prospect out there. 

Because a lot of the time, you get the #1 pick, but the top quarterback prospect is just good, not one of those “jaws on the floor” type of prospects. You know, like Kyler Murray in 2019, Baker Mayfield in 2018, Trubisky in 2017, Goff in 2016, Jameis Winston in 2015, Blake Bortles in 2014. Shit, in 2013, the first QB off the board was EJ Manuel. Nobody was flipping out over those guys, you know?

Not every year is there a “savior”-level QB prospect out there.

I think this is one of those years where the team with the #1 overall pick should be ecstatic–where there is a “savior of the franchise”-level prospect out there.

This is how we viewed Caleb Williams before USC’s season went off the rails, wasn’t it? We saw him as a generational talent, and yet now people have kind of soured on him.

I mean, I get it. The season was ugly, the nails, the dress, the crying. I get it.

But I also understand that the NFL draft “Silly Season” can and often does trick us. Somehow people were led to believe, in 2021, that Zach Wilson and Trey Lance were better prospects than Justin Fields even though we had all had Justin Fields penciled in as the #2 pick in the 2021 draft behind T-Law since they were both high schoolers in Georgia. Somehow, it all changed in a few months for Justin Fields.

That’s the Combine Silly Season in a nutshell. Things that we have known and taken for granted for months, sometimes even years, suddenly get upended and discarded.

Watch it happen with the wide receivers this year–I guarantee you will at least hear some buzz. We’ve known Marvin Harrison Jr. was the most elite receiver prospect in this draft for the past two years. And yet as we get closer to the draft I will bet any money you start to hear chatter about, “Actually, could Nabers be a better prospect than Marvin Harrison? Could Rome Odzune be better?” You will hear that shit, I promise. It may not actually have the effect of causing Marv to drop in the draft, but you will hear it.

A lot of this stuff comes from teams that are slotted lower in the draft trying to tank a certain player’s draft stock. They start spreading false rumors. The Chargers drafting at #5 would absolutely have an incentive to spread rumors about how Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze are better than Marvin Harrison, because they want the Cardinals to pass on Marvin Harrison so he falls to them.

If I’m Washington and New England, I don’t want the Bears to draft Caleb Williams. I want them to pass on him so he falls to me.

In fairness, most of the stuff about Caleb Williams he’s brought on himself, but what I’m saying is, we often get too caught up in the moment and lost in the weeds as we get closer to draft season.

We’ve known for 2+ years that Caleb Williams was going to be the #1 pick in 2024. We’ve all known it since he was a freshman at Oklahoma. Ever since then, we’ve considered him a generational prospect.

And now, all of the sudden, he isn’t? We’re changing our minds? Why? Has anything changed substantially? Has any new information about him come to light that we didn’t previously know?

No. We’ve known about the nails for years.

Don’t overthink this.

As a Bears fan, if you told me back in 2021 or even 2022 that the Bears would be getting Caleb Williams in the 2024 Draft, I would’ve been over the moon. I would’ve thought, “We have finally found our savior.”

I’m not as certain as I once was, but that’s inevitable as you get more and more tape on a guy.

I still, however, think Caleb Williams is a can’t-miss prospect, and that the Bears would be foolish to pass on him.

I like Justin Fields a lot. Nothing but love for him. But I think he needs a change of scenery, and I also think the Bears need to reset the salary cap clock as well. That’s a huge part of this. Caleb Williams will be on a rookie deal for three years. Justin Fields could be on his rookie deal for two more year, but if you keep him and he breaks out this year and you decide he’s your future, you will have to pay him big bucks after this season. And that fucks up your ability to stack the roster around him.

The Bears have to take Caleb Williams here. Having Justin Fields complicates it a bit, but to me there is no doubt that they have to take Caleb Williams.