If I’m a Georgia Bulldogs fan, last season definitely left a bad taste in my mouth. On the one hand, you’re coming off back-to-back National Championships, so you can’t be that upset about failing to win a third straight, but on the other hand, I would view last season as a massive missed opportunity.

I think Georgia was the best team in the country last season. I was surprised when Alabama beat them in the SEC Championship because I thought last year’s Bama team was the worst Saban Bama team since 2010. But even still, it’s Alabama. They’re the most talented team in the country, they have the greatest coach in the history of college football–even in a reduced state, they are a major threat to win the whole thing.

If Georgia had gotten to the playoff–let’s say they beat Alabama in the SEC Championship, and get into the playoff as the #1 seed, I think they would have won the whole thing. What we likely would’ve seen last year was Georgia at #1, Michigan at #2, Washington at #3 and Texas, because they were the only one of the final four with a loss on their resume, at #4.

That would have been an unfortunate matchup for Georgia because I thought last year that Texas was the best team in the final four, they just happened to run into the worst possible matchup in Washington with Penix and those three great receivers, and on top of that, Texas made a ton of costly mistakes and left lots of points on the field, and that’s why they lost.

But I thought Texas matched up really well against Michigan because Michigan is a running team and Texas had those two monster defensive tackles Byron Murphy (first rounder) and T’Vondre Sweat (high second rounder). I also thought Texas was more consistent and balanced offensively, whereas Washington was a heavy passing team that didn’t really feature the run game.

Plus, Texas had already gone down to Tuscaloosa and beaten Alabama pretty convincingly early in the season, so that’s why I thought Texas was the best of the Final Four. I know the transitive property isn’t the be-all, end-all but Texas beat Bama and Bama beat Georgia. So you do have to respect that.

What I’m getting at here is, Georgia would’ve had a tough first round matchup against Texas, but I do think that with Carson Beck throwing the ball, and Texas’ secondary having been their biggest weakness last year, Georgia would have prevailed, probably in a thriller.

They’d go on to the National Championship game against Michigan, and I do think Georgia would have won that game. They would not have let Michigan run all over them the way Washington did for most of the first half, and I think Georgia’s offense was less prone to stalling out than Washington’s was because Georgia was more balanced–they could run and throw it. So I’d have taken Georgia to beat Michigan.

And this is coming from a guy who picked Michigan to beat Washington, so I don’t just blindly pick against Michigan all the time.

I just think Georgia was the best team in the country last year–I really do.

Now, I don’t think Georgia was as good as they were in 2022 or 2021, but that’s okay because the field was weaker last year. There was no historically great team in 2023. There was no 2018 Clemson, 2019 LSU, 2020 Bama, etc.

When’s the last time we had a year where neither Alabama, Georgia or Ohio State was elite? It doesn’t happen. At least ONE of those three heavyweight programs is bound to be elite every season. But it just so happened that in 2023, none of the three were. Ohio State had a Syracuse quarterback and their least effective offensive attack in years, Alabama was flawed from the get-go with QB issues and an imperfect defense, and Georgia—well it’s nearly impossible to threepeat. 

There were a handful of “A” teams out there in college football last season, but I don’t think there were any “A+” teams. You know what I mean? Georgia was definitely an “A” team in 2023. Michigan was an “A” team, as were all the other playoff teams, plus Ohio State, and Florida State before they lost Jordan Travis (although I’d argue they were more of an A- but whatever).

But there were no A+ teams. And that’s why it was a massive missed opportunity for Kirby Smart. The threepeat was almost a reality. 

I’ve kind of been going back and forth on which Georgia National Championship team I think is better, and at first my assumption was that the 2021 team was hands-down better, but I actually now have come around to the idea that 2022 Georgia was the superior team, because it was more balanced. It was better offensively with Stetson Bennett having really come into his own in his second year as a starter. He was a Heisman finalist in 2022, but nowhere close in 2021.

Then you get the rebuttal that 2021 Georgia had a generational defense, while 2022 Georgia was really good on defense but not generational. I get it, but that 2021 Georgia defense also got their backs blown out in the SEC Championship by Alabama. Bryce Young hung 41 on them (well, technically 7 was off a turnover, so 34). I didn’t see 2022 Georgia get blown the fuck out–they went 15-0. They also didn’t have to play Alabama at all in 2022, so that’s a fair point. Plus they also got lit up by Ohio State in the playoff game. That’s fair. 

BUT…. I don’t know if 2021 Georgia could have beaten 2022 Ohio State. The Georgia-Ohio State game in 2022 in the playoff was a 42-41 shootout, and I just don’t think 2021 Georgia was equipped to win a game like that. Yes, maybe the defense would have been better, but if 2021 Georgia got lit up by Bryce Young and Jameson Williams, what would that Ohio State offense with CJ Stroud, Marvin Harrison Jr and Emeka Egbuka have done to them? I really don’t think the 2021 Georgia squad could have beaten 2022 Ohio State. But the 2022 Georgia team did. 

Now, I understand Georgia got their revenge on Bama in 2021 in the National Championship game, but that was also a significantly reduced Bama offense from the one that shredded Georgia in the SEC Championship. In that SEC Title game, Bama’s #2 receiver John Metchie went down for the year and would not play again. And then, in the first half of the Natty game, Jameson Williams blew out his knee. So the Bama offense that Georgia beat in the Natty was a far cry from the offense Bama had in the SEC Title game.

I think those injuries to Metchie and Jamo were the reason Georgia won that 2021 Natty more than anything, just like I think the injury to Marvin Harrison Jr. is the reason Georgia won the 2022 Natty.

Come to think of it, Georgia was very fortunate to win both of those National Titles. Of course, you still have to be good enough to be in that position to begin with, so I’m not trying to discredit them. It is what it is. We can look at every National Champion and point out where luck played a big factor–you have to be lucky to win a National Championship, it’s part of the equation.

I think, though, that I would give the edge to the 2022 team over the 2021 team just because the 2022 team was better offensively, and more balanced overall.

2023 was a lesser squad than both 2021 and 2022. That said, I still think it’s a disappointment that 2023 did not win the National Title because the field was beatable for them.

State of the Program

So that’s the context I’m viewing the 2024 squad in: I know most of the guys from the Championship teams are gone now (most to the NFL), but this season is really the opportunity for Georgia to cement themselves as the preeminent dynasty of the decade winning 3 National Titles in 4 years.

Nobody has done that since Bama in 2009, 2011 and 2012, and then prior to that Nebraska in 1994, 1995 and 1997. I wrote before the 2023 season that nobody has truly three-peated in college football history if you really look at it, and that Georgia had the chance to do something truly unprecedented.

But while that opportunity was lost, if you win 3 of 4 National Titles, you still solidify yourself as one of the greatest dynasties in the history of the sport. In fact I think it takes at least three National Championships in a decade to be considered a true college football dynasty. Three is the cut-off point.

I think we all expected Georgia to emerge now as that dominant 800 pound silverback gorilla of college football now that Nick Saban has retired, and you could easily argue that they’ve already supplanted Alabama as the apex predator of the sport, but winning a National Title in 2024 would truly confirm that.

You would think that with Saban retiring, it only makes sense that Georgia will step in and fill that Alabama role, but it’s not so simple now.

Texas is back, finally, and now they’re in the SEC. So that is a top-tier brand with ludicrous money, in the SEC, in Texas, with a quality coach–they are going to be a major threat for Georgia from a recruiting (and on-field) perspective going forward as long as Sark is there.

Immediately after Saban retired, people said that basically, Georgia would now become unstoppable because Bama and Georgia were splitting a lot of the same recruits down south, and with Saban out of the picture, Georgia would now start getting the vast majority of those players, and they’d just become unstoppable.

I don’t think that is entirely true, and it’s because Texas has really emerged now, plus you’ve also got LSU under Brian Kelly, and they are red hot on the recruiting trail right now. 

LSU has always been a power in recruiting, but they haven’t really had that stability at head coach to remain consistently great on the field. They had Saban in the early 2000s, then he left for the NFL after just 5 years. Les Miles came in and won a Natty with a lot of Saban’s players but could not maintain LSU as a truly elite program even though he hung around for over a decade there. There were a lot of ups and downs under Miles. Ed Orgeron came in after Miles, and while he could recruit and they had that magical 2019 season with Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase, outside of that year, they were never really a playoff-caliber team.

I think Brian Kelly represents probably the most consistent competence LSU has had at head coach since Nick Saban was there, honestly. Les Miles and Orgeron were characters, but Kelly–while I do have my criticisms of him–just feels more, what’s the word? Business-like. Process-oriented. You know what you’re getting with him. He knows what he’s doing, he’s got a resume a mile long. He just represents stability, I don’t know how else to put it. 

With a guy like Orgeron or Les Miles, you can reach really great heights for a short time because those guys are pure juice, elite motivators, everyone wants to run through a wall for them, etc. But eventually that stuff wears thin and you have to have a process and a culture to fall back on. I just think Brian Kelly is more of a program-builder than Orgeron and Miles, you know? I think you’re better off with a guy like Brian Kelly from Sunday through Friday, in practice, in the film room, etc. Kelly gives LSU stability and professionalism they haven’t had since Saban.

Which is all to say that I think LSU under Kelly will fill part of that void left by Saban. Texas will as well.

And honestly, Ole Miss looks like they’re really leveling up their program. They’ve really taken advantage of the transfer portal and NIL.

And let’s not just act like Bama is going to completely fall apart–they hired Kalen DeBoer, and while the jury is still out on whether he can do it in the SEC, the guy has won at an extremely high level everywhere he’s been. I don’t think he’s going to be Nick Saban of course, but personally, I will not bet against him. I’m not just going to write Bama off now. Have you looked at DeBoer’s first Bama recruiting class? Currently ranked higher than Georgia, and with the way college football works now, the big boy programs like to have their recruiting classes 80% finalized by the start of fall training camp. DeBoer can recruit. 

On top of all those emerging threats in the SEC, you’ve also got Ohio State who has gotten ultra-aggressive in terms of recruiting, the portal and NIL.

We all thought Caleb Downs was a shoo-in to transfer to Georgia, right? Well, he ended up at Ohio State. They’ve even now gone down into Alabama and secured commitments from some top-level recruits. Quinshon Judkins transferred to Ohio State even though he’s from Alabama. It is rare for Ohio State to recruit Alabama, but clearly they see an opening there with Saban gone and have seized it. They’re not just going to cede the next 5-10 years to Georgia. 

So even though Ohio State isn’t in the SEC, they are truly a coast-to-coast recruiting power. They might have the farthest reach in the country, even more than Georgia, in terms of being able to pull players from literally anywhere in America. Georgia’s roster is stacked and elite, and they’ve got players from all over–even some from the Northeast. They’ve got guys from California. But Ohio State has guys from the Pacific Northwest, the East Coast, the South, obviously the Midwest, Florida–they even have a dude from South Dakota. Georgia’s roster is national, but it’s predominantly guys from the Southeast. Ohio State has pipelines everywhere–South Florida, the DMV, Arizona, California. Everywhere.

And I don’t mean this to say Ohio State’s approach is superior to Georgia’s because clearly, we know without a doubt that you can build a National Championship roster with predominantly Southeastern talent. And Ohio State hasn’t won a Natty in a decade.

What I’m saying is more that Ohio State is a major threat to Georgia on the recruiting trail, even though Ohio State is not based in the South and not in the SEC. Ohio State right now is the biggest national recruiting power, and they could still even have room to grow.

If Ohio State is able to win a Natty this year and really elevate their brand back to that premier program status, I think that when you combine their massive NIL resources, they could become a sort of mid-2000s USC juggernaut. Back when Pete Carroll was at USC and they were winning titles, and USC was seen as THE place to be, every recruit in the country wanted to play there. They had dudes from all over–coast to coast, every top recruit wanted to be at USC. They were the coolest program in America.

Alabama under Saban was like that, but in a different kind of way–it wasn’t so much that Tuscaloosa was seen as the coolest place to be, it was more like players from coast to coast wanted to play for Saban because they just knew he was the best of the best, they were going to get developed, and it was their best chance to go to the NFL. Your parents wanted you, as a top recruit, to go play for Nick Saban. 

Ohio State could turn into that. They’re already like 95% of the way there, Ryan Day just needs a Natty to truly cement his credibility–he’s already one of the best recruiters out there as is. And that represents a major threat to Georgia as Kirby Smart tries to fill that power vacuum left by Nick Saban.

Another threat in recruiting is Oregon. I know they’re situated up there in the Pacific Northwest and they’re not really a threat down South, but with their NIL money, they are a major player now. Phil Knight is 86 years old and is desperate to see his Alma mater win a Natty before he dies. 

Oregon is now starting to be seen as that place where you transfer to after a year or two somewhere else, and they pull in big time players in the portal. They got Dillon Gabriel from Oklahoma, they got Evan Stewart from Texas A&M–they can pull transfers from all over. They’re too far away to really be a threat for high school recruits in the South–even though Dan Lanning has an SEC background–but clearly they are very appealing to recruits in the portal. Heck, they even finished with a top-3 high school class this past year, although they were unable to sign any 5-star players.

Another recruiting threat I forgot to mention is Miami. I know they’re still a joke of a program, but Mario Cristobal is an elite recruiter and they have a ton of NIL money at their disposal. They were a major player in the Jeremiah Smith recruitment against Ohio State until the bitter end, although that may have been mostly because he’s from that area.

Shit, you’ve also got Texas A&M as well as a recruiting threat. Texas A&M in the NIL era has really committed to spending big, and that’s a relatively recent trend. Now, it remains to be seen whether Mike Elko can recruit at a high level, but he will have an embarrassment of riches behind him on the trail going forward.

So for all those reasons, I don’t think you’re going to see Georgia just pull away from everyone else when it comes to recruiting in the post-Saban era. There’s just too many threats now. Georgia will still be an elite recruiting program because of Kirby, and the fact that Georgia is one of the best states for high school talent, and the fact that they’re situated in the heart of the South, which is far and away the most fertile recruiting grounds in America.

But I don’t think we’ll see Georgia elevate to a point where they’re lapping the field. The whole landscape of the sport is much different from when Saban was dominating. 

However, Georgia could give themselves a major advantage by winning another National Championship and cementing themselves as the premier program in America.

So that’s kind of a “state of the program” for Georgia before we actually get into the season. Needless to say, the program is in a pretty good place in Athens, GA at the moment–probably as good a place as they’ve ever been, all things considered.

But again, I view this season as a pretty unique one from the perspective of Saban stepping away and there’s a lot of coaches out there vying to fill his shoes–or at least try to. Kirby Smart, having won consecutive National Championships, is best-positioned to do so.

In fact, with Saban’s retirement, Jimbo Fisher being fired, and Jim Harbaugh going to the NFL, there are now only three active coaches in college football who have won National Championships: Kirby, Dabo and Mack Brown who is still kicking at UNC (won with Texas in 2005).

Kirby is the only active head coach to have won a National Championship within the last 5 years.

And another fun fact: there is no active head coach in college football who has beaten Kirby Smart within the last five years. Georgia only has two losses in the past three seasons, and both of them were to Nick Saban. They lost to Florida and Alabama during the Covid season, and Florida was coached by Dan Mullen, who is currently working for ESPN.

In 2019, Georgia lost to LSU and Ed Orgeron isn’t coaching anymore. They also lost to South Carolina, but their head coach at the time, Will Muschamp, is now on the defensive staff at Georgia.

Right now, there are only two active college football head coaches who have beaten Kirby Smart, and both of them did it when they were at different programs than they’re at now. Tom Herman’s Texas Longhorns beat Georgia in the 2018 Sugar Bowl, but Herman is now at FAU. And in 2017, Gus Malzahn’s Auburn team beat Georgia in the regular season (and later lost to them in the SEC Championship game that same year). Malzahn is now at UCF.

So there’s no active head coach that has beaten Georgia in the last 5 years, period. And the only two active head coaches to have beaten Kirby Smart (excluding 2016, his first season at UGA) are now at completely different programs that represent no real threat to Georgia currently.

This is why you’ve got to consider Georgia the favorite to win the whole thing going into the season. We’ll dig deeper into their roster and see just how good they truly are, but when you’ve got the only active head coach to win a National Championship in the past 5 years, and there are no active head coaches who have actually beaten you in the past 5 years, you are the top dog until proven otherwise. The road to the National Championship runs through you.

Along those lines, college football is about to experience its first season since 2008 in which Nick Saban’s Alabama program is not the big bad wolf striking fear into the hearts of everyone else. For the first time in over a decade and a half, the National Title no longer necessarily runs through Alabama. There have only been two seasons since 2008 where the team that won the National Championship didn’t either beat Alabama on the way, or was Alabama themselves. 

2013 Florida State didn’t have to go through Bama (because of the Kick Six), and neither did 2022 Georgia (because LSU narrowly beat Bama and prevented them from going to the SEC Title game). But those are the only two teams since 2008 that didn’t have to go through Bama to win a Natty. Everyone else did: Michigan last year, Georgia in 2021, LSU in 2019, Clemson in 2018, Clemson in 2016, Ohio State in 2014, Auburn in 2010, Florida in 2008–they all had to beat Alabama. And every other year, Bama won it all.

It’s going to be weird to experience college football without Nick Saban pacing the sidelines at Alabama, but as they say, time marches on–and so does college football.

But what about Georgia’s actual roster this year? How good are they going to be?

Personnel

Before we get into who they have, let’s take a look at who they no longer have. They sent a record 15 players to the NFL following the 2021 season, and a further 10 following the 2022 season. This year, they had 8 players get drafted to the NFL, and a further four get signed as UDFAs:

1. Brock Bowers (TE)
2. Amarius Mims (OT)
3. Ladd McConkey (WR)
4. Javon Bullard (S)
5. Kamari Lassiter (CB)
6. Tykee Smith (S)
7. Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (C)
8. Zion Logue (DT)
9. UDFAs: Kendall Milton (RB), Daijun Edwards (RB), Marcus Rosey-Jacksaint (WR), Tramel Walthour (EDGE)

So they are losing quite a few players. The first six guys on that list were all drafted in the first three rounds, while Van Pran-Granger was a fifth rounder and Logue was a sixth rounder.

They are losing most of their offensive weapons, although I wouldn’t be too worried about replacing them as they’ve got some good receivers that are next up: Dominic Lovett, Dillon Bell (who I really like–almost a Percy Harvin or Zachariah Branch-type of weapon/speedster). Rara Thomas, who played a good bit for them last year and was expected to be one of the top 3-4 wideouts this year, has been dismissed from the team, so that’s a blow for sure. But not insurmountable. 

They’ve also got Oscar Delp, a really talented tight end who got a chance to flash last year when Brock Bowers was hurt. I was impressed with what I saw of Delp in those few games, and he was highly recruited as well, having been the #1 TE prospect in the nation in the class of 2022.

Trevor Etienne, who shockingly transferred to Georgia from hated rival Florida, will step in at running back as the presumptive starter, but they’ve also got highly touted redshirt sophomore back Branson Robinson, who was expected to play a major role in the run game last year and who Georgia was really on high on, until he got hurt and had to miss the season. Georgia is always plug-and-play with the running backs–they haven’t been elite at the position since Nick Chubb and Sony Michel left after the 2017 season, and then they had D’Andre Swift through 2019, but their running backs are always at least productive. 

I think Etienne and Robinson together make this the most dangerous backfield Georgia has had since Swift left. The guys they’ve had the past few years–Zamir White, Kenny McIntosh, Kendall Milton, Daijun Edwards–have been productive, but not elite, and you can see the evidence of that in where those four guys were drafted vs. where Chubb, Michel and Swift were drafted.

On the offensive line, while there will be some new faces, they bring back stalwarts Xavier Truss and Tate Ratledge on the right side of the line. Those guys have been around a while.

Overall, I think Georgia is going to be excellent on offense. This should be the best backfield they’ve had since before Covid; they’ve got a lot of weapons, and they’ve got a top-3 quarterback in the country. This is going to be a very potent offense. Their wide receivers individually are probably at the “good not great” level, as there’s no true standout, first round talent among them, but as a group I think they’re solid. And on the offensive line, which is a continuity and development-based unit, it will be tough to replace two starters, but I’m not expecting their offensive line to be an issue. It’s still going to be one of the best offenses in the country.

What I worry about is if they run into a team like Ohio State, which has an excellent secondary that should have the advantage over Georgia’s receivers. If those receivers are blanketed–because they’re not elite–then can Carson Beck win them the game anyway? Can he throw into tight windows and make enough plays with his legs to win?

Last year, he couldn’t do much against the Alabama defense in the SEC Championship game. That was the best defense he’d faced all season and he looked really average, to be quite honest. And really, Bama’s defense wasn’t that great last season, either–Texas absolutely torched them.

What is different this year is that the run game with Etienne will be much improved at Georgia, which should take a lot of the pressure off of Carson Beck. If this Georgia team had the same running attack as they had last year, I would say there’s no way you can put them ahead of Ohio State in the polls. If there is an obvious way to attack you and beat you, you cannot be the preseason #1. But for Georgia, I’m expecting them to have a very good rushing attack, which means there is no obvious way to shut down their offense. You can’t just say, “We’re going to take away your passing attack and now you’ve got no way to beat us.”

The only way anyone is beating Georgia is an NFL style game where it’s talent-equated, and just comes down to who executes better and which coaching staff is more clever. Which means there’s only a handful of teams in the country that, at least in a playoff setting, have a realistic chance to beat Georgia.

(On a week-to-week basis in the regular season, you’re more prone to an upset just because of the possibility of overlooking an opponent, or having an emotional letdown game. In a playoff setting, the risk of these pitfalls is dramatically lower.)

Now on to defensively for Georgia, the biggest losses for Georgia are in the secondary, where they lose safeties Javon Bullard and Tykee Smith, along with cornerback Kamari Lassiter. All three of those guys were starters on the 2022 National Title squad.

However, because Georgia runs a defensive scheme with three safeties (they have a STAR position, which is basically a nickelback), they are not without high-end talent back there. Malaki Starks, who started for them as a true freshman in 2022 on their National Championship team, is now a junior and is projected as the top safety prospect in the 2025 draft. He’s basically like Caleb Downs but a year older–just a ludicrously talented safety phenom who has been an impact-level starter since day one. He’s a guy who will be drafted in the first round next spring, for sure, and probably in the top-half of the first round at that.

Georgia has got some familiar names in the linebacking corps with Smael Mondon and Mykel Williams coming back (although Williams plays the JACK position which is like a hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end). Williams in particular is a projected first-rounder who will wreak havoc up front, and in all likelihood give Georgia that front-seven monster that has been the hallmark of Kirby’s teams in recent years–guys like Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, etc. Jalen Carter’s absence in 2023 was particularly noticeable, and Georgia’s front simply didn’t feel as scary as it did the prior two seasons.

They did lose stalwart linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson to the portal this year (Kentucky), which was a bit of a surprise given that he was a multi-year starter for the Dawgs and even a Butkus Award finalist in 2022. JDJ was a real high-level contributor for Georgia, but because he was dinged up a bit in 2023, some younger guys stepped in for him and maybe JDJ felt his starting job wasn’t as secure as it was before he got hurt. Now true sophomore CJ Allen projects to be the other starting linebacker for Georgia.

But the main thing for Georgia is that they return starting QB Carson Beck, who is likely the top returning QB in college football, and may end up as the best overall quarterback in the sport.

He didn’t start off the greatest last season, but by the end of the year, it was pretty obvious that he was the real deal. Having him come back for 2024 is massive for Georgia, and he’s probably the main reason why I might pick Georgia to win the National Championship over Ohio State. I think Carson Beck is better than whoever Ohio State rolls out at QB. QB is not the be-all, end-all in college football as we all know, but it’s a big deal.

Now, that said, I do have some questions about Beck, namely in his arm strength and throwing the deep ball. He just wasn’t very good at it last year. He excels more with the underneath stuff, and I think people are overstating how good he is. 

While I do think Ohio State has the better overall roster, and I think if you stacked up Ohio State’s roster against Georgia’s position by position, I’d give Ohio State the edge at more positions than I would Georgia, having Beck is the great equalizer for the Bulldogs. We don’t know if Will Howard will be a difference-maker for Ohio State, but we know Beck is.

I keep comparing Georgia to Ohio State because I think they’re the best two teams in the country this year, and they’re the two most likely teams to make it to the National Championship game. If you made me pick right now who will play for the National Championship, I’d say Ohio State and Georgia. I think Ohio State is probably going to be the #1 overall seed in the CFP this year, just because their schedule is a bit easier than Georgia’s, and that actually leads into the next point nicely.

Schedule

Georgia has some really tough games.

I think most people around college football expect there to be a clear-cut top four teams in the country this year, and most of us expect the National Champion to be one of these four: Ohio State, Georgia, Texas or Oregon. They’re in a class of their own this year, that’s the perception, and I agree with it.

The cool thing is, Ohio State plays Oregon and Georgia plays both Texas and Alabama in the regular season, and we might even see them rematch in their respective conference championship games. Both conferences have gotten rid of the East/West divisions, meaning just the top two conference records will square off for the Conference Title games. We could see Oregon vs. Ohio State and Georgia vs. Texas not only twice, but three times if those teams happen to meet in the playoffs as well.

Say Ohio State goes up to Oregon, loses, but then beats them in the Conference Championship game–they’re both in the playoffs, and they could meet again. I’d hope the committee takes that into account and puts them on opposite sides of the bracket, however. But the same thing is possible with Georgia and Texas: the regular season game is at Texas, and let’s say Texas wins, but then Georgia wins the rematch in Atlanta. They’re both going to make the playoff and they could meet a third time there.

This is the tough part about Georgia’s schedule: I’ve mentioned they go to Texas, but they also have to play at Alabama and at Ole Miss this year. Their three toughest games are on the road. Those teams are all going to come into the season ranked in the top 10–Texas will be top-5 and probably Ole Miss will be as well. That’s a real gauntlet of a schedule for Georgia.

They even open the season against Clemson, although it is in Atlanta so it’s basically a home game for Georgia. Still, Clemson and Georgia are really close to one another, not even a 90 minute drive from campus to campus, so it’s not like Clemson has to go cross-country. And that’s only because there’s no interstate connecting the two cities–as the crow flies, Athens, GA is only 59 miles away from Clemson, SC. Atlanta is only a 2 hour drive from Clemson.

But it’s going to be a tough schedule for Georgia. I expect them to beat Clemson, and in fact they should probably be favored in all four of their biggest matchups, although I would understand if Texas is a slight favorite in that game just because of the home field advantage.

Georgia is actually favored by 4.5 points currently on the road against Alabama on September 28, a game which I will be attending. 4.5 points seems like a lot over a Bama team that, despite losing Saban and a number of key players, still tops the 247 talent composite as the best roster in the nation. And let’s not act like Kalen DeBoer is some bum of a head coach–this guy is a proven winner everywhere he’s been and he’s never had as much talent as he has now.

I’m not going to be shocked if Georgia finishes the regular season with 2 losses, but even in that scenario, they would still have a great chance to make it to the SEC Championship. Georgia is the best team in the SEC, so if they have two losses, then everybody else will, too. It’s just such a deep and brutal conference. You can’t convince me that Texas is going to stroll into the SEC and only drop one conference game. The true difficulty of the SEC isn’t in the fact that there’s titans like Bama and Georgia, but in the fact that the next tier of teams are all loaded with talent and can beat you at any time.

Kentucky has played Georgia tough in recent years–somewhat. Auburn is going to be much improved in Hugh Freeze’s second year. Tennessee will be decent.

And we just saw Georgia Tech manhandle FSU in Ireland in the opening game of the season. Georgia Tech is not some pushover team anymore. I’m not going to pick them to beat Georgia but it’s certainly not a free win for the Bulldogs this time around.

Again, the real difficulty of the SEC is not in the number of elite teams, but in the number of teams that can beat the elite teams if the elite teams have a letdown performance. I remember in 2022, Georgia almost lost to a Mizzou team that went 6-7.

Having Auburn right after the Bama game is scary. Having Tennessee right after Ole Miss is scary. It’s so hard to maintain that elite level of intensity and attention to detail every single week, but that’s what you have to do to go undefeated in the SEC. You cannot have a letdown.

So I’m going to actually pick Georgia to go 10-2 in the regular season. I’ll say they win a thriller against Bama but then have a letdown loss the following week to Auburn. And then I think they lose two weeks later when they go down to Texas.

Still, I have Georgia making the SEC Championship game. Who will they play? Well, to answer that, we’ve got to look at the schedules of the other top teams in the conference.

This is Bama’s schedule:

I’ve already picked Georgia to beat Bama, so that’s one loss for them. And then I’m looking at that stretch of Tennessee, Mizzou and LSU, with only Mizzou being a home game. They will get a bye week between Mizzou and LSU, but I think we’ll see Bama lose to LSU on the road even after the bye week.

Bama has a tough schedule but they’ve only got one truly tough back to back, and that’s Tennessee and Mizzou. After their road trip to Wisconsin, they have a bye week before Georgia. Then they have Vandy and South Carolina which should be nice rebound games. But that three game stretch from October 19 to November 9 is where I see them getting another loss.

I could also see Bama losing one of the last two games, either at Oklahoma or the Iron Bowl. Again, Auburn is going to be improved in year 2 under Freeze, and they really punched above their weight class last year in nearly beating Bama. But then again, the idea of Auburn beating both Bama and Georgia this year seems like too tall an order, even if they came very close to doing it last year when they were pretty mediocre (it’s a forgotten game but Auburn pushed Georgia to the brink last season).

So I will actually take Oklahoma to beat Alabama on November 23rd, just because it’s in Norman and I expect Brent Venables to have his defense on point in year three. I’m not particularly high on Oklahoma, but I just think Venables will have an answer for Jalen Milroe, and I’ll leave it at that because this post is about Georgia, not Alabama.

So I’ve got Georgia going 10-2, Bama going 9-3, and now we’ll take a look at the other top contenders in Texas and Ole Miss.

Here’s Texas’ schedule:

I will pick them to beat Michigan on the road, although I think it could be a close game.

They should definitely be favored to beat Oklahoma, although in a rivalry like that, anything can happen so it’s by no means a guarantee. So I’ll take Oklahoma to beat them again because Texas will be looking ahead to Georgia the following week. I know, it’s hard to overlook your most hated rival, but this is unfamiliar territory for Texas having Oklahoma and then Georgia. I don’t know that Sark will be able to navigate that stretch, and since I already have Texas beating Georgia, I’ll pick OU to win the Red River Shootout in Dallas.

I also want to pick a slip-up game for Texas somewhere, but I just don’t see a ton of options between Mississippi State, Vandy, Florida, Arkansas and Kentucky. Maybe Kentucky in the lead up to the resumption of the A&M rivalry game? Or do they lose to A&M? I think A&M is going to be pretty mediocre this season, they lost a ton in the portal and it’s a new regime.

I can’t see Texas going undefeated in the regular season or even finishing with one loss, but at the same time, if I’ve already got them beating Georgia, where is the obvious place for them to lose? I just don’t know. So I’m just going to say they will lose to…. Florida. Yeah, let’s go with Florida. I know Florida has a brutally tough schedule and Billy Napier is the most cooked coach in America, but let’s say he gets fired after the Georgia game on November 2nd, then the first game for the interim coach is at Texas the following weekend. Teams always get a bump early on after they fire a head coach, right? There’s a rallying effect, at least for a week or two.

I’ve looked at Florida’s coaching staff and I’m not sure who, exactly, the interim coach will be as there are no obvious candidates. But I’m guessing it will be Ron Roberts, who is listed as the “Executive Head Coach” and co-DC. He just looks like the oldest guy on staff and the most likely to be promoted to the interim coach role. They’ve still got another defensive coordinator. Ron Roberts takes over for Billy Napier and rallies the Gators to a shocking road win over Texas.

So we’ve got Texas at 10-2.

What about Ole Miss, then?

It’s a pretty easy schedule for Ole Miss. I’ve got them losing to Georgia, but other than that, where are the loseable games? Obviously you look at on the road against LSU on 10/12 and hosting Oklahoma two weeks later after a bye. I think they’ll beat Oklahoma, and I’m also not going to pick Oklahoma to beat Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss in the same season.

So I’m going to say Ole Miss loses at LSU on 10/12. It’s coming on the heels of a road game at South Carolina, which isn’t particularly scary, but the prospect of two straight road games is rough. None of the other teams we’ve looked at so far have to deal with that. Georgia technically has consecutive road games but there’s a bye week in the middle between the Kentucky and Bama games.

Ole Miss will be ripe for a loss when they go into Baton Rouge on October 12th, and I’ll say LSU gets the win in that game.

Which will mean that Ole Miss is also 10-2.

With Texas, Georgia and Ole Miss all at 10-2, we’ll have to go to the tiebreaker here.

Texas will be in because of the head-to-head win over Georgia. And Georgia will have the edge over Ole Miss because of the head-to-head win.

So your SEC Championship game will be Texas vs. Georgia, and on the neutral site, I will take Georgia to get revenge over the Longhorns.

What seed will that translate to in the inaugural 12 team CFP, then?

Well, they’d certainly have one of the top four seeds, but to accurately answer that question I would have to go through the Big Ten and predict who wins that conference and what record the Champion will have, and then I’d also have to do that for the Big 12 and ACC, and that’s just far beyond the scope of this article, which wasn’t even supposed to be an SEC prediction, it was just supposed to be for Georgia.

But just to provide a quick high-level overview of the CFP landscape as I see it now: I will definitely predict Georgia to have one of the top four seeds, probably not the #1 seed because I don’t see the Big Ten Champion having 2 or more losses. 

So Georgia will be between 2-4, and they probably won’t be 4 because how on earth could you rank them behind the Big 12 Champion? I don’t expect anyone in the Big 12 to finish with 2 or fewer losses, because that conference is going to be anarchy from day one with everyone beating up on everyone.

I also don’t expect the ACC Champion to have a better record than Georgia. Florida State already has one loss on their resume, and we all know Clemson is circling the drain with Dabo at the helm. I’ve got Georgia beating up on Clemson this Saturday, anyhow, so even if Clemson runs the table after that and wins the ACC, they’ll be behind Georgia in the CFP pecking order at season’s end.

Miami? They could be pretty good this year, but I won’t hold my breath. And even if they are pretty good, I can’t see them going 11-1 or 10-2. Best case scenario for Miami is probably 9-3.

So I think Georgia will nab the #2 seed in the CFP despite the 11-2 record I predict them to have. As for what happens after that, I just can’t get that far because I still have to do my Big Ten season preview and determine how that will shake out. But right now, I think it’ll be Georgia losing to Ohio State in the National Championship when all’s said and done.