This is on FanDuel Sportsbook as of April 18 at about 9pm:
Now Fields is not an overwhelming favorite. Vegas still thinks there’s a good shot the 49ers take Mac Jones; they have him listed at +125, which is close to even money.
For some perspective, FanDuel has Trevor Lawrence listed at -20,000 to go to the Jags at #1 which is as close to a lock as you can get. It means a $100 bet would only pay out 50 cents. And Zach Wilson is -3,000 to go to the Jets at #2, which translates to a $100 bet paying out just $3.33.
But even though Fields is only -135 to go to the 49ers at #3, it’s still interesting to see the sentiment shift that has happened over the past week or so. Last week it was considered a done deal that the 49ers were taking Jones, now Fields is the betting favorite.
Media narratives come and go all the time, and I was skeptical when the media started saying Fields was now the favorite to go to San Fran after his April 14 pro day. But Vegas apparently believes it. I’m inclined to believe the narrative now if Vegas believes it, because Vegas has money on the line. They can’t afford to be wrong. If Vegas believes it, then it’s legit.
So my question is: did San Fran actually change their minds on Fields, or was the whole Mac Jones thing just a misdirection from them? Was it always Fields? Or was it Jones and now it’s Fields?
I really have no idea. My gut kinda tells me the 49ers have been leaning Fields all along and the Mac Jones stuff was just a smokescreen, but I could be completely wrong. I’ve got Fields as the #2 QB in the draft, so I’ve always thought it was insanity that he had been overtaken by not only Zach Wilson but Mac Jones as well.
And nobody thought there was a chance Mac Jones would even go in the top 10 until the 49ers traded up to #3 and the Jones rumors began flying. Before the 49ers made that trade, most of us assumed Jones would have been available at #12. You don’t trade up for a guy that would’ve probably been available at your original draft position.
Maybe the 49ers are trying to inflate Mac Jones’ value and trick some team into over-drafting him. I don’t know. Or maybe it’s the opposite and they’re trying to do it with Justin Fields.
It’s just hard to believe the 49ers are waffling on this pick so close to the draft. We’re only 11 days away. I’m really skeptical that they’re still unsure of who they want. I think it has either always been Fields or always been Jones.