I tweaked the formula a bit because last week my ratings were only able to get 62% of the straight-up game outcomes correct, and that’s not good enough.
Here is the new formula:
In addition to having Net Yards, I now have net rushing yards, net passing yards and net YPC. I also have added net first downs, net red zone touchdown %, and net third down conversion %. Strength of schedule is double-weighted again due to the addition of all the new categories.
The Ohio State-Penn State game really was what compelled me to add net red zone stats back in, because Ohio State definitely outplayed Penn State in the game, but it ended up being close because Ohio State couldn’t finish drives in the red zone. Penn State has one of the best red zone defenses in the nation. It makes a huge difference.
The top 3 hasn’t changed, but Georgia has overtaken Alabama as my #1 team. And Ohio State has fallen off a bit relative to Georgia and Bama. Bama and Georgia are in a class of their own, Ohio State is a notch below. Michigan is a bit below Ohio State, and then Baylor, Cincy, Oklahoma, Florida, Oregon and Auburn are in the next tier.
As you can see, there are a lot of differences relative to FPI. The biggest near the top are Baylor, Arkansas, Auburn and Coastal Carolina. In the next tier, it’s Clemson, Iowa State, UTSA, and Notre Dame that are the most notable teams that vary significantly in my rankings vs. FPI.