The Committee’s first playoff rankings are in:
Okay, at first glance, there are a few interesting takeaways, namely that Oregon is all the way up to #4 despite being #7 in the AP poll. But it’s no surprise that the Committee put Oregon over Ohio State given the head-to-head result. That’s how it should be.
But wow, Cincy at #6? AP Poll has them #2. The Committee clearly does not want Cincy in the playoff. Sure, Cincy has had back-to-back ugly wins over inferior G5 teams, but if there was any year where a G5 team might be able to sneak into the playoff, it was supposed to be this year. The Committee threw cold water on that idea. I mean, Cincy has gone to Notre Dame and won this year. They’ve done about as much as a G5 team can do to prove itself, and they’re still #6.
Now, granted, I wouldn’t take Cincy to beat Georgia, Bama or Ohio State, but I think they could compete with Michigan State and probably Oregon, too.
So I’m looking at these rankings and after about 5 minutes or so, it finally dawns on me that Oklahoma isn’t even in the top-6.
The Committee just gave OU football a giant FUCK YOU, huh?
Well, that’s what they get for not playing anybody good and barely beating Tulane, Nebraska, West Virginia, Kansas State and Kansas.
OU isn’t even #7, Michigan is. The Committee has Oklahoma at #8 right now.
If there was any doubt, the Committee now has zero respect for the Big 12 conference. We now essentially have a Power Four, and the Big 12 has been de facto relegated. The Committee has more respect for Cincinnati than it does for OU.
That is an interesting development to say the least.
Wake Forest comes in at #9, and then Notre Dame is #10.
Michigan State, Oregon and Cincinnati are the only teams that have wins over teams currently ranked by the Committee inside the top-10: Michigan State beat Michigan, Oregon beat Ohio State, and Cincy beat Notre Dame.
The biggest takeaway here is that the Committee is setting up a scenario where both Georgia and Bama make the playoff, basically no matter what. To rank them #1 and #2 indicates that unless Georgia absolutely blows the doors off of Bama in the SEC Championship, they’re both getting into the playoff.
The Michigan State-Ohio State game coming up on November 20 will eliminate one of those two teams. Oregon just has to win the Pac 12 and they’re going to be in, given that the Committee really values their road win over Ohio State.
Michigan does not control their own destiny here. They have to beat Ohio State and Penn State in order to get into the Big Ten Championship, but if Michigan State runs the table, it won’t matter. Michigan State will get in over them. Michigan needs both Ohio State and Penn State to beat Michigan State, because Michigan needs MSU to have 2 losses. Michigan cannot finish with the same number of conference losses as Michigan State.
Cincy does not control their own destiny, either. If the Committee had ranked them inside the top-4, it would have been a “win out and you’re in” scenario, but that’s not the case. Cincy needs utter chaos ahead of them, particularly in the Big Ten. They would need something like Bama to get blown out by Georgia, another Ohio State loss (but not to Michigan State), and Oregon to lose another game.
If Cincy and Georgia are the only two undefeated teams standing at the end of the season, then Cincy might have a shot. But right now, they don’t.
The final point I want to make, though, is this: aren’t we all ready to be done with the committee?
I’m sick of having a group of people determine “Who’s In” and “Who’s Out.”
We need automatic berths for the major conference winners, an automatic berth for Notre Dame if they finish inside the top-12 of the rankings, and then 7 at-large spots.
I know we’ll still have a ranking system of some form no matter what, but we need to have automatic berths. The rankings should be used only for seeding and at-large bids.
Just give us the damn 12-team playoff already. The stupid “Alliance” of the Big Ten, Pac 12 and ACC need to quit holding this up and let it happen.
Maybe if we get a 2-loss non-SEC Champion Alabama in the playoff that’ll be the impetus for moving to the 12-team playoff.